Detroit Tigers RHP Michael Fulmer won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2016, finishing 10th in Cy Young voting in the process. However, it really was not an awesome statistical season and fantasy baseball managers who invested for the long-term probably should not have done so with confidence. Oh, Fulmer's 3.06 ERA certainly shined in his first season, but his strikeout rate was rather ordinary -- and that shiny ERA predictably rose the next season to 3.83, which was far more in line with his skills. After that, he really struggled and then came the Tommy John surgery. It wasn't long before everyone forgot about Michael Fulmer.
What do you know? Fulmer is back and he saved his third game of the season on Monday night. It sure seems like he is Detroit's new closer! Congratulations! Fantasy managers may scoff at this, knowing that Fulmer fell completely out of statistical favor and the Tigers are surely among baseball's worst teams, a sign that save chances may be rare. Still, we know some (many?) of you compete in deeper formats, and every save counts. Well, the Tigers are a big-league baseball club. There will be some saves. Fulmer may get them.
While Fulmer is back to throwing his fastball nearly as hard as he did in his first two seasons, he has made a change in his approach, opting for more off-speed stuff (mainly sliders), and his swinging-strike rate is considerably up from his awful 2020. Fulmer is sinking the ball better than ever and I think this comes back to a combination of his role and durability. In other words, former starting pitchers can throw harder in shorter stints, and some thrive this way. Look at the career change for longtime starter Ian Kennedy! Fulmer remains hittable, but he is efficient. He's throwing strikes and getting enough strikeouts to be relevant.
How long can this last?
Can Fulmer can stay in this role? Well, yes. The Tigers coveted a strike thrower for late-inning work, they don't need to push Fulmer to start, and he is pitching well. After all, right-hander Bryan Garcia and left-hander Gregory Soto have six saves between them, but also 23 walks in 30 2/3 innings. That's not good. Fulmer made four starts in April, lasting only 12 2/3 innings, walking a whopping five batters compared to just seven strikeouts. He was well below-average, with a 4.97 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. In his 10 relief outings, Fulmer has 21 strikeouts in 17 innings with a 2.12 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP. Yes, this will work.
As for the Tigers, 100-loss teams rarely produce strong fantasy closers. Then again, nobody is saying Fulmer saves more than 25 games here. This could all change tomorrow but, as for today, the Tigers are right at the league average for team saves, with nine. The Nationals have four, the Rockies and Diamondbacks have five. As bullpens go, Detroit's is neither strong nor efficient, but one cannot predict save opportunities. The Royals were third in saves in 2020 and did not sniff the playoffs. The Reds did make the post-season and had just nine saves all season, second-worst in the sport. Stuff happens. Add Fulmer while it lasts.
Stock rising
Tyler Rogers, San Francisco Giants: As long as he keeps throwing his Frisbee for strikes and inducing ground balls, manager Gabe Kapler will continue to give him high-leverage work. Rogers has the team's most recent three saves, while left-hander Jake McGee looks overworked and more like his Colorado Rockies version. Rogers throws his fastball 82 mph. He barely gets strikeouts. His BABIP against is .187. This degree of success is fleeting, but he is going to get more save chances.
Paul Fry, Baltimore Orioles: Applaud 36-year-old, soft-throwing journeyman Cesar Valdez for his eight saves, but he has permitted six hits and three runs over his past two outings, earning a mere four outs. Things had to change and, unlike with Rogers, there is little deception in his delivery. Fry is a strikeout lefty with a 1.42 FIP. It seems only a matter of time before Fry starts getting saves.
Yimi Garcia, Miami Marlins: I guess fantasy managers are slow to react to Garcia because he is a Marlin but there is no competition for saves here, and Garcia is pitching well. My concern with Garcia -- an extreme fly-ball option -- is the home runs. He permitted 15 of them for the 2019 Los Angeles Dodgers. He may allow that many again this season, only this time with 25-plus saves.
Stock falling
Taylor Rogers, Minnesota Twins: The twin brother of the Giants' submariner has allowed runs in four of five outings, albeit while missing bats. Yeah, he has probably been unlucky, just like last season and yeah, this Rogers brother has far better stuff than Tyler does. What I see happening is manager Rocco Baldelli giving Hansel Robles more chances at ninth-inning work. Alex Colome, by the way, has not allowed a run in May over five appearances.
Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres: This may seem obvious because this left-hander hit the injured list with lat tightness, but he was going on the "stock falling" list regardless because Mark Melancon seems on his way to 40 saves. Pomeranz misses more bats, but his rate has slowed of late (perhaps due to injury), and now he is out for a few weeks. Move on.
Jake Diekman, Oakland Athletics: Consecutive blown saves over the weekend in Minnesota figure to remove him the next save chance or two, and what is odd about this is that left-handed hitters are suddenly having success against him. Diekman throws left-handed, though his career splits are even. This season, lefties already boast a pair of doubles and a triple against him to the tune of an .819 OPS. Perhaps it is merely early-season variance, but the door is open for right-hander Lou Trivino to seize the primary save role, while veteran Sergio Romo lurks.