The Seattle Mariners enter Thursday on a four-game losing streak, but with great hope for the future as they intend to debut not only prized outfielder Jarred Kelenic versus Cleveland on Thursday night, but also right-handed starting pitcher Logan Gilbert. Kelenic is one of the top prospects in baseball and fantasy baseball managers have been quick to add him to their teams, expecting immediate production. Perhaps soon they will do the same with Gilbert.
Gilbert, the organization's first-round pick in the 2018 draft, made his Triple-A debut for Tacoma last week and permitted one earned run over five strong innings, striking out five with nary a walk. In 2019, he pitched at three levels of the minors, including Double-A Arkansas, fashioning a 2.13 ERA and a 0.948 WHIP over 26 starts, striking out 165 over 135 innings and allowing just seven home runs. As with Kelenic, he might have made his big-league debut in a normal 2020 season. Alas, he did not.
Here comes the caveat about rookie pitchers for fantasy baseball purposes: Be careful, and be wary. Gilbert may be awesome right away, but hitters are absolutely safer and we should take a more aggressive approach with them. Most rookie hitters struggle, too, but with hurlers there is extra caution because their organizations tend to treat them so carefully, with usage limits on pitchers per outing and/or total innings. Gilbert barely pitched in 2020. Even with the club's obvious need, expecting four-plus months of regular work is too optimistic.
What I particularly like about Gilbert, other than his obvious skillset and potential opportunity, is he has a traditional starter's build, being 6-foot-6 and at least 225 pounds. Plus, he throws strikes. Nothing against the likes of Toronto Blue Jays RHP Nate Pearson and so many others, but if a young pitcher lacks command of his arsenal and piles on the walks, I start to lack interest. Gilbert commands his pitches and appears to be durable. His is an easy, seemingly effortless, repeatable delivery and, while he may not be a future ace, we value mid-rotation starters, too. The Stetson product feels safe for some numbers right away.
As for the Mariners, lefties Yusei Kikuchi and Marco Gonzales (the latter still on the injured list with a forearm strain), headline the rotation, though rejuvenated right-hander Chris Flexen has the best ERA (and the worst K-rate). Young right-hander Justin Dunn is walking people and young southpaw Justus Sheffield gives up myriad hits. Seattle may choose to go with a six-man rotation at times, too. Gilbert may be part of it as an immediate stabilizing force ... or he may be back in Triple-A by the weekend. Just keep expectations in check and remember he could be in and out of the rotation so that the team can monitor his usage.
The list
Last week, because I was interested (and thought perhaps you would be as well), I went through the top-10 hitting prospects still in the minor leagues in order of ESPN standard league roster percentage, along with brief thoughts. Now we look at the pitchers!
1. Sixto Sanchez, Miami Marlins (rostered in 50.5% of ESPN standard leagues): Yep, he remains rookie eligible! His 39 innings last season were strong ones, with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, although the strikeout rate was a bit lower than expected. Still, he was only 21! Sanchez was going to have his innings kept in check anyway, but he started late in spring training thanks to a false COVID-19 test and then reported shoulder discomfort late in March. Now the organization hopes he can pitch in the majors in June. Keep Sanchez rostered, for he could make between 10-15 big-league starts and they should be good ones. However, there is no guarantee he pitches that often, either.
2. MacKenzie Gore, San Diego Padres (8.7%): Frankly, I was shocked to see Gore available in so many mixed leagues, but the Padres seem to be in little rush to promote him, and there are no natural rotation openings yet. The Padres bypassed Gore for a roster spot last season by utilizing right-hander Luis Patino (now in Tampa Bay) in the bullpen. Last month it was left-hander Ryan Weathers getting a chance. I think Gore should be rostered in as many leagues as Sanchez. He could get the promotion at any point, pitch more than Sanchez does, and he should be a strong strikeout option who prevents runs.
3. Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners (2.9%): Go get him, fantasy managers!
4. Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers (2.2%): His first two Triple-A outings have featured six home runs in 11 innings, evenly divided versus Nashville and Indianapolis, but other than that issue, word is that he has pitched well. Manning has 13 strikeouts versus just one walk. The Tigers are just awful and will likely present Manning with a promotion this summer, but it may not be much fun in fantasy.
5. Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays (1.8%): I wrote about this tall right-hander four weeks ago because, as with Gilbert, he is a tall, well-built strikeout option and Toronto clearly has a rotational need. Manoah fanned 12 with nary a walk or run allowed in his Triple-A Buffalo debut, allowing two hits, and then on Wednesday he tossed another six shutout frames. He appears to be ready and, like Gilbert, he should be far more popular in ESPN leagues.
6. Max Meyer, Miami Marlins (1.3%): He and his devastating fastball-slider combination debuted at Double-A Pensacola last week over five scoreless innings. Anything is possible in the average NL East, so if the Marlins are contending in a few months we could see Meyer, perhaps in the bullpen in a Michael Kopech type role. In any event, I would think the organization will preach caution with his usage.
7. Asa Lacy, Kansas City Royals (1.2%): Lacy started his pro career last week at High-A Quad Cities, and he walked five in his debut, getting only seven outs. The left-hander may debut in the majors next season, but not likely in 2021, so we presume his roster percentage is mostly from dynasty/keeper formats.
8. Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds (1.1%): The second overall pick in the 2018 draft (after Twins SS Royce Lewis) last pitched in the minors that season, as Tommy John surgery delayed his progress. Greene made news last week debuting for Double-A Chattanooga, as 37 of his 43 fastballs reached triple digits. Yeah, that will work! Still, it seems unlikely he makes the majors this year.
9. Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles (1.1%): An intimidating hard-thrower with a four-pitch arsenal, Rodriguez is striking out hitters at High-A Aberdeen, so again, I get why fantasy managers roster him in dynasty formats. That said, he is not making the major leagues in 2021.
10. Josiah Gray, Los Angeles Dodgers (1%): He made eight starts in 2019 at Double-A and fanned 10 over five innings in his Triple-A Oklahoma City debut last week. Unlike most pitchers on this list in non-contending organizations, the Dodgers could summon Gray at any point -- even this weekend -- as either a starter or a reliever, though they will also act cautiously with innings. There is obvious upside for this season and later, with the caveat that this organization has so much depth, it can frustrate fantasy managers.
Others: St. Louis Cardinals LHP Matthew Liberatore, the prize of the Randy Arozarena trade with Tampa Bay, is starting at Triple-A Memphis, and should debut this summer for the contending Cardinals. ... The Seattle prospect hurler with the highest upside may be right-hander George Kirby, but he is only at High-A Everett. See you in 2022, perhaps. ... Seattle's Emerson Hancock could debut in 2022, too. Man, the Mariners are building something special with both their outfield (just wait until you see Julio Rodriguez!) and the rotation! ... A few names to watch later this summer: Yankees RHP Clarke Schmidt (currently injured), Blue Jays RHP Simeon Woods Richardson, Athletics RHP Daulton Jefferies (injured list) and Phillies RHP Spencer Howard. I could also see the desperate Angels promoting LHP Reid Detmers, as the Louisville product was drafted early with the premise that he was nearly big-league ready.