Good things tend to happen when a baseball player hits a baseball hard. That's why fantasy baseball managers should take a look at hard-hit percentage rates in order to get a better gauge of who may (or may not) deserve their numbers and who could soon improve. Of course, hard-hit percentage is not everything. If that were the case, New York Yankees sluggers such as Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton (annually among the leaders in this stat) would be the best hitters in the world. One also needs to hit baseballs in the air (oh, and stay healthy!) in order to hit the home runs everyone desires.
He probably wouldn't be your first guess, but Cincinnati Reds OF Tyler Naquin enters Wednesday atop the hard-hit leaderboard at 50.7%. That's quite the shocker based on his career figures 39.8% rate. Boy, that Cleveland outfield could use someone like him! Naquin, 30, already has eight home runs and a career-high 44.1% fly-ball rate, so this actually looks legit. A 9.3% walk rate helps, too. Naquin has settled in as the Reds' regular center fielder and No. 5 hitter and yeah, I am as surprised as you are. He is rostered in 67.4% of ESPN standard leagues.
Teammate Jesse Winker is the better fantasy option, of course, also among the top 20 in hard-hit percentage after having whacked his seventh home run on Tuesday. The story with Winker generally focuses on his ability to hit left-handed pitching. That's not going so well this season with a .499 OPS, but when you hit .427 with a 1.301 OPS against right-handers, we can overlook the split. Winker surely has to slow down a bit there, as a .491 BABIP against right-handers is too fortuitous to last, but he may well hit .300 overall and approach 30 home runs. We would take all that!
Cincinnati boasts two others among the top 30 in hard-hit percentage and one of them you would not likely expect. Outfielder Nick Castellanos is the one you would. His home run rate has slowed down since an awesome start, but the steady Castellanos could also (finally) reach 30 home runs, and a .300 batting average remains realistic, too. The other Reds option hitting baseballs hard is first baseman Joey Votto, currently out with a fractured left thumb. Votto is hitting .226 with five home runs. So, perhaps hard-hit rate can be misleading, too!
Hard-hitting takes on hard-hit rates
Judge is truly an anomaly in this sport, making hard or medium contact more than 94% of the time. His soft hit rate is just 5.3%! Only four others among the 28 qualified hitters with a 40% hard-hit percentage also feature a soft-hit percentage lower than 10%. Castellanos and Votto are on that list, as are Los Angeles Dodgers 3B Justin Turner and San Francisco Giants 1B Brandon Belt. Belt is striking out at a far greater rate than ever before, but he is also going to surpass 20 home runs for the first time if he keeps this new aggressive, pull approach going.
Cleveland's DH Franmil Reyes is second in hard-hit percentage and gives off a nice Judge vibe as a tall power hitter who hits nearly everything hard, but also hits too many ground balls. This should change. The problem in getting too excited about Reyes is in terms of his making contact. He has eight walks so far, though five came last week. Baby steps. Reyes is DH-only but he has played twice in the outfield, so eight more games and he adds eligibility. I could see a 40-homer season from Reyes at some point.
I discussed mild concerns with Chicago White Sox 1B Jose Abreu in a recent blog entry, but he is among the hard-hit leaders, so what should we believe? Abreu is not lifting the ball, and a lofty 58.8% ground-ball rate will continue to cap his numbers. Stanton, curiously enough, is the only other player among the hard-hit leaders with a ground-ball rate higher than 50%. Abreu also has a low 30% fly-ball rate. He can fix all of this and thrive, so be patient.
Milwaukee Brewers 2B/SS/3B Luis Urias is 11th in hard-hit percentage, a shade behind some fellow named Mike Trout, but only one of them shows up on ESPN's most-dropped list. Guess which one? Urias is hitting .202 with three home runs, and it seems like "all or nothing" when he swings, with a 20.6% soft-hit rate and few barrels. There is little in between. I am not investing, but Urias should be better than this, perhaps a .260 hitter with 15 home runs. I wonder if Milwaukee wants former shortstop Orlando Arcia back. He hit three home runs in a recent game for Triple-A Gwinnett and could soon force his way into Atlanta's lineup.
Colorado Rockies 1B/2B/3B Ryan McMahon is sixth in hard-hit percentage and seems to be on his way to his first 30-homer season, which we like. I also like how the left-handed hitter is among the leaders in hitting to the opposite field, a list led mostly by singles hitters like David Fletcher and Nick Madrigal. McMahon is making contact at a 75.9% rate, way up from 61.6% last season. Good for McMahon for making strides in his approach. The only other Rockies hitter among the hard-hit leaders is injured first baseman C.J. Cron.
For some hard-hit percentage perspective, San Diego Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr. led the league with a 54.9% mark in 2020, with Dodgers SS Corey Seager and Atlanta Braves OF Ronald Acuna Jr. also surpassing 50%. Of course, it was a truncated season. Turner is the only one at 50% since the start of 2019.
Then there are the hard-hit percentage trailers, with Fletcher, Adam Frazier, Victor Robles, J.P. Crawford, Dylan Moore and Cavan Biggio being some of the expected names. Yankees SS Gleyber Torres is third-worst at 16.7%, and this was hardly expected. I used to think the big problem with Torres was hitting against non-Baltimore Orioles pitching. Now he cannot hit any pitching hard. He just hit his first home run of the season over the weekend. Torres remains rostered in 93.9% of ESPN standard leagues and his numbers have to improve some, but I do not see a top-75 hitter for fantasy. The Yankees have another option at catcher and they have used Kyle Higashioka because Gary Sanchez struggles to hit and defend. They have no other options at shortstop.
Other sluggers among the bottom 30 in hitting baseballs hard include Toronto Blue Jays OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., St. Louis Cardinals OF Dylan Carlson and Oakland Athletics 3B Matt Chapman. I still believe in all three to varying degrees, but this is a bit disturbing. Gurriel has three walks all season. He will soon lose playing time if he does not turn things around. Carlson has a .375 BABIP, and when that lowers and takes his batting average with it, he will need to adjust. He has yet to steal a base, too. Chapman still looks hurt after offseason hip surgery, and a 33.8% strikeout rate is in line with disappointing 2020 numbers. Chapman may not be who he was in 2019 for a while, and I would resist trading for him expecting that version.