For those of you who play in fantasy baseball leagues which count "saves plus holds," the most valuable Los Angeles Dodgers relief pitcher is actually not Kenley Jansen. The accomplished veteran enters Tuesday with five saves -- just half of his team's total -- which is a little bit concerning, though more saves should come when the Dodgers start playing better. Still, when holds are worth as much as saves (and for some of us, they are) that makes both left-hander Victor Gonzalez and right-hander Blake Treinen more valuable, just like in real life.
Gonzalez enters Tuesday with nine holds, one behind league leader Trevor Rogers of the San Francisco Giants and tied with Milwaukee Brewers RHP J.P. Feyereisen. Treinen has eight. We occasionally discuss bullpens where the best pitcher is not the closer, and we certainly can make that case with the defending champion Dodgers. Both Gonzalez and Treinen have also saved one game as well. Injured left-hander David Price, perhaps bound for starting duties when he returns to health, and injured right-hander Corey Knebel (two saves) boast the other Dodgers saves.
Jansen is having another mildly disturbing season, but different from prior ones. His current 1.88 ERA is absolutely unsupported by a 4.84 FIP, and it comes down to myriad walks, which is really unlike him. In the past, it has been home runs that have been a problem, not walks. Jansen walked only nine hitters in 24⅓ innings last season and he has not walked 20 in a season since 2012. He is already at 14 free passes in 2021, 11 of them unintentional, and he has now walked a hitter in six consecutive outings. He is not permitting many hits, but again comes the caveat, as he enjoys a fortuitous .095 batting average against, unsustainable thanks to a .107 BABIP.
Then again, we have been concerned about Jansen losing his closer role for years, and when healthy, that just never happens. (Well, it happens in the playoffs, but for the regular season, not so much.) Should Jansen's fantasy investors be concerned? I suppose a little, but probably not. The Dodgers love him and provide him with much respect and statistical loyalty, although manager Dave Roberts now handles his workload a bit more cautiously. When the Dodgers ultimately run off a stretch of 20 wins in a month, Jansen will pile on saves. The Dodgers are currently struggling, but that cannot last long. Jansen should still save more than 30 games in 2021.
Holding out for a hero
For those in saves-plus-holds formats, however, it is surely possible that both Gonzalez and Treinen eclipse 30 of those as well -- and with better numbers in other fantasy relevant categories. Gonzalez dominates with a sharp slider and he has permitted just one barrel in his career, covering 33 innings. One barrel. Treinen is throwing his fastball harder than he did in his magical 2018 season with the Oakland Athletics. Only four relief pitchers average more velocity. These fellows are good.
While I find fault with saves as a meaningful category in real baseball -- and, by extension, in fantasy -- holds are far from a perfect indicator for success, too. Pitchers can register a hold simply by holding any late-inning lead, but they can allow several runs along the way and pitch poorly, just like, well, the closers. The problem in fantasy is that for most roto and points leagues, saves matter far more. When they do not, or when holds are introduced, it evens things up. I am all for it.
Using fWAR as a gauge, we see Treinen is among the league leaders there, one of four Dodgers relief pitchers with a positive figure. Jansen comes in at minus-0.1, ranking worse than more than 150 relief pitchers, including most Dodgers. Most Dodgers relievers are thriving, even the rejuvenated Jimmy Nelson. Jansen is not, and the blown saves category rarely tells the story. The point here is that if holds are worth the same as saves in your league, Jansen may be better left on your league's waiver wire. Go with Gonzalez and Treinen first.
Around the league
Here are a few thoughts on some of the other pitchers from around the league who are earning those holds.
Milwaukee's Feyereisen entered Sunday with a spotless ERA, and then Miami Marlins OF Lewis Brinson (of all people) hit one over the left-center fence in Miami. Stuff happens. Brinson is a career .280 slugger versus right-handed pitching. Feyereisen remains far from saves in the Milwaukee bullpen because right-hander Devin Williams is back on track and left-hander Josh Hader no longer shares them. Add Feyereisen, but there is nothing in his past that screams much level of success. Be prepared for the run prevention to stop and for you to need to find another for holds.
Rogers is the unorthodox setup man for left-hander Jake McGee, who recently had a stretch in which he permitted runs in 5-of-6 outings. Rogers, the twin brother of Minnesota Twins LHP Taylor Rogers, but with only five career saves, may be in line for more soon. The submariner induces ground balls and relies on deception, hardly skills we see in current closers, and he notched his 10th hold on Monday versus the Texas Rangers, needing just eight pitches for three outs. He threw six strikes, but earned nary a strikeout. Frankly, if you worry about Mark Melancon not getting enough strikeouts, worry more about Rogers and his 4.5 K/9. Normally we would say this kind of success cannot last, but Rogers gets away with it.
Toronto Blue Jays RHP Tyler Chatwood may still be a walker, but he is also firmly in line for more holds as injuries derail so many others in this bullpen. Chatwood could also pick up some saves soon, as Jordan Romano is no lock to pitch great and everyone else healthy in the bullpen is unproven. We mock our Fantasy Focus Baseball producer Kyle Soppe for his unhealthy love of Chatwood, but now we have actual reason to discuss the pitcher. Chatwood's story is not a unique one, as many starters find more velocity and control when pitching in shorter bursts.
For about the sixth consecutive week, we still can only hazard a guess about the Cincinnati Reds bullpen hierarchy and thus, similarly evaluate with a shrug who gets the holds and saves. Right-hander Tejay Antone appears to be the best pitcher out of the bunch, so he figures to get something. Add him first.
Strikeout options that are at least temporarily overachieving, such as Feyereisen, make for wise short-term streamers. San Diego Padres RHP Austin Adams is striking out 42.9% of hitters. In time, he will get holds. Baltimore Orioles RHP Cole Sulser is right with him, and avoiding walks. Twins LHP Caleb Thielbar and Chicago Cubs LHP Rex Brothers are missing so many bats, at least for now.
I rarely draft for holds, presuming that they are rather easy to add in-season. Experienced right-handers such as Adam Ottavino and Hansel Robles are among the leaders, and each could end up with saves as well. It is also common to find lefties (who are no longer permitted to be used in quite the same singular situational sense as in the past 60 or so years), such as Andrew Chafin, A.J. Minter, Tony Watson and Tim Hill, piling them on. In general, when a good relief pitcher gets trusted in the seventh or eighth inning, they get holds.