It's not easy to replace a good-performing catcher in fantasy these days, and the loss of Carson Kelly to a fractured toe during the weekend has probably set many of his managers back. Fortunately, today's column provides two you can consider as temporarily -- or even lengthier, if your league requires two -- replacements, as well as a rookie well worth stashing in any format deeper than ESPN's 10-team standard.
William Contreras, C, Atlanta Braves: Willson's little brother got a big boost in playing time following the losses of both Travis d'Arnaud to a torn ligament in his left thumb and Alex Jackson to a strained left hamstring, and while at the time the Braves summoned him for what appeared a likely partnership with free agent signee Jeff Mathis, Contreras has emerged as the team's clear No. 1 backstop. Contreras has started 11-of-13 games behind the plate since his recall, but much more importantly for us in fantasy, he has performed better than expected with the bat. Using our Player Rater's "Last 15" split, in fact, he's the No. 1 catcher in fantasy.
During that time, Contreras' contact quality has been excellent, which bodes well for his ability to fill Kelly's shoes on fantasy teams, or boost any team at the position. Contreras has 94.1 mph average exit velocity, a 53.8% hard-hit rate and 23.1% Barrel rate, each of which would rank among the league's top 10 if he had the requisite plate appearances. While maintaining those the rest of the way is unrealistic, those numbers back up the power potential scouts have seen in his bat, and he's also handling the defensive chores aptly enough to continue to score many starts.
Stephen Vogt, C, Arizona Diamondbacks: The primary benefactor of Kelly's injury, Vogt should take over the lion's share of the Diamondbacks' catching chores for at least the next 10 days, though he's the clear second option in this space because of the team's hints that Kelly might not be sidelined for much more than a minimum stay. Vogt, now 36 years of age, continues to have a hint of pop in his bat, posting a .400 or better slugging percentage in seven of his past eight seasons (2020 being the exception), and he has .233 isolated power this year after .227 in that department in 2019.
The Diamondbacks have granted Vogt two of their three starts since Kelly got hurt, with Daulton Varsho getting the third, and while Varsho is the seemingly more appealing choice in fantasy, the team seems to have more trust in the more-experienced Vogt.
Alek Manoah, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: He might be a familiar name to many readers already, as friend and colleague Eric Karabell profiled the prospect right-hander several weeks back, before his assignment to Triple-A Buffalo was known. Since then, Manoah's performance has been electric, plenty illustrative of his No. 11 overall selection in the 2019 amateur draft. He has made two starts for the Bisons thus far, going six shutout innings in each, totaling 17 strikeouts compared to two walks and three hits. With that, Blue Jays media has been abuzz as to Manoah's projected arrival in the majors, and considering their rotation injury issues to date -- they for a decent chunk had only three healthy starters and most recently lost prospect Nate Pearson to an injury setback -- he might be needed sooner than later.
Considering the mad rush to the waiver wire we just saw this past week to add Seattle Mariners prospects Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert, stashing Manoah now in any league where you have the bench space available to do so is wise. Sure, Mahoah has only those two starts above low Class A ball, fueling skepticism at advancing his timetable, but he's also 23 years old and chipped in time at the alternate site.
In addition to Monday's recommended pickups, here's a buy-low candidate to get now:
Luis Castillo, SP, Cincinnati Reds: He's off to a career-worst start that recalls fear of his disappointing sophomore season of 2018, as the right-hander's 7.71 ERA through eight starts is actually worse than his 6.02 mark from that season. A collapse in the performance of both his four-seam fastball and changeup has been largely behind it, and in the case of the former, be aware that for the season he has seen a 1.2 mph drop in average velocity while surrendering a .353 batting average with it. If you dive into the Statcast metrics, they suggest most of Castillo's struggles were deserved, but there are reasons for optimism: That fastball has recaptured some lost velocity in his past three turns, averaging 97.0 mph in them, plus the fact that even in that disappointing 2018, he managed a 3.62 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 127 K's in his next 23 starts.
Coming off his one Coors Field start in 2021, Castillo's perceived fantasy value is probably at its low point, and while he's probably more of a borderline top-25 starter than he was in the preseason, that's still likely an attainable price point on the trade market. See if you can get him at a price beneath that tier.