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Who would have thought that, through the season's first 22 days, the New York Yankees would rank 26th in the league in runs per game (3.61) and 27th in wOBA (.288) on offense? Couple those rates with a starting rotation that has ranked 19th in ERA (4.39) and 16th in quality-start rate (28%) through that same time span, and it's no wonder this team is a mere 7-11 to begin the 2021 season. Week 4 presents the Yankees with a massive rebound opportunity, with four week-opening games at Baltimore's Camden Yards before three weekend contests back home against the Detroit Tigers. That's seven games, matching 14 other teams for the week's most, against squads which are sub-.500, rank among the bottom 10 in run differential, and that are projected to finish that way. The Yankees, by the way, have won 21-of-26 games at Camden Yards since the beginning of 2018, and Gleyber Torres (.333/.452/.800, 8 HR in 19 G) and Clint Frazier (.326/.367/.804, 7 HR in 13 G) have monstrous track records there. These hitting matchups are favorable enough to roll the dice on any of the Yankees' nine typical lineup members. Their pitching, however, is another story, after manager Aaron Boone announced that Deivi Garcia would be promoted to start Sunday's game, moving the team to a six-man rotation for at least one turn. On its current schedule, Garcia would become the Yankees' two-start pitcher, though Corey Kluber could get the nod (Tuesday and Sunday) if Garcia's is a one-and-done. Even with one start apiece, all Yankees pitchers are well worth your while facing this schedule.
The finale of the Kansas City Royals' weekend wraparound series visiting the Tigers begins Monday at 1:10 p.m. ET, leading to an early start to Week 4. The week concludes, meanwhile, with a pair of Sunday night games (for those of you pressed to play catch-up on your matchup's final day), including the New York Mets at the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday Night Baseball starting at 7 p.m. ET.
The Royals, who enter play on April 23 still atop the American League Central standings, face an interesting, and fantasy-relevant Week 4. After finishing the Tigers series, they'll head to Pittsburgh's PNC Park for two games, where they'll lose the designated hitter but benefit from facing a presumptive last-place team. They then conclude the week with three road games against the slow-starting and injury-plagued Minnesota Twins. The absence of the DH probably won't be an issue for Jorge Soler, who can simply shift to right field, bumping Hunter Dozier back to third base, meaning Hanser Alberto's at-bats are likely the only ones threatened. It's an especially strong week for both left-handed and speedy Royals hitters, as the ratings show. Manager Mike Matheny thus far has his team running wild, their 10.1% SB attempt rate (calculated as a percentage of Baseball-Reference.com's judged opportunities) tops the league, and every one of the Tigers', Pittsburgh Pirates' and Twins' active catchers grades well below average in reining in the running game. Nicky Lopez (95.9% available) is well worth the add-and-start, and if there's any time to roll the dice on the struggling Andrew Benintendi (44.9%), this is the week to do it.
The Toronto Blue Jays are another team facing a notable Week 4 schedule -- unfortunately, for the worse. They're one of only five teams scheduled to play just five times -- a huge disadvantage in a week where half the league is scheduled to play all seven days -- and they're projected to face Max Scherzer (Tuesday) and Charlie Morton (Sunday). Worse yet, the team's injury-depleted rotation is aligned such that none of the team's three healthy starters is aligned to be able to handle the two-start pitching spot (Tuesday and Sunday), so that's not even an area to exploit. In the Blue Jays' defense, they're beginning to get healthier, after some hard-luck injury issues early. George Springer might be ready to rejoin the team by the beginning of the week, while the team get Jordan Romano back on April 24. Just be forewarned the poor schedule.
Speaking of the five-game teams, the other four are the Mets, Pirates, San Diego Padres and Washington Nationals. The news isn't all bad for all members of these teams, however: Trent Grisham, the Padres' typical leadoff man, should feast on a slate of nothing but projected right-handed starters, as might Jake Cronenworth. Ryan Zimmerman (98.0%), meanwhile, might draw a pair of starts in the week-opening, two-game series at Dunedin's TD Ballpark. Since his Nationals are scheduled to face three (and possibly four) left-handed starters in their five games, he's well worth a matchups-driven start in all but the shallowest fantasy leagues.
Though the Los Angeles Angels and Seattle Mariners had already been using six-man rotations since the season's start, and the Yankees have moved to one for Week 4, the St. Louis Cardinals are the next team to migrate to a six-man arrangement, as a way to give their starters additional rest and keep them fresh. The Cardinals will be playing days 4-10 of a 17-day stretch without a break, tied with May 21-June 6 for the team's longest scheduled such span in 2021. Presumably, they'll drop in Johan Oviedo on Wednesday, limiting their two-start pitcher slate to only Adam Wainwright (79.2% available and well worth a nod). Mind the other five teams that are in the midst of 14-day-plus active stretches without a day off: The Los Angeles Dodgers, a team that rarely had their starters start on four days' rest in 2020; the Milwaukee Brewers, who don't have a single rotation member who has thrown more than 180 1/3 innings in a professional season (and four haven't exceeded 158); the Oakland Athletics, who got fewer than 100 pro innings from Jesus Luzardo, Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas in 2019; the Tampa Bay Rays, who are notorious for using openers to keep their primary starters rested; and the Texas Rangers, who made overtures all spring about piggybacking starters and potentially skipping others at times. This is a dicey week to expect second starts to be made by the projected Tuesday starters of these teams -- and perhaps the Tigers and Houston Astros as well. It's the Dodgers' duo of Julio Urias and Walker Buehler that has me especially curious. Both are definite fantasy starts regardless, but might this be the week manager Dave Roberts shuffles it up?
The Dodgers offense, however, is in fine shape for Week 4, with a Royals-like schedule that leans strongly towards their left-handed hitters and speedsters. After facing a barrage of left-handed pitching -- 6-of-7 games from April 15-22, and 9-of-19 so far, were against lefty starters -- the team is slated to face nothing but right-handed starters in a seven-game week. Max Muncy, who has struggled against lefties thus far, should be in for a rebound week. This might be a week during which Luke Raley gets a handful of starts and contributes to NL-only fantasy teams.
The Astros offense is getting healthier, with Jose Altuve potentially aligned to rejoin the team after Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Martin Maldonado did so early during Week 3. At full strength, this is one of the most contact-oriented lineups, and the Astros' opponents, on the pitching side, lean contact-oriented. Keep in mind that the Rays' Tyler Glasnow, their top strikeout starter, is scheduled to face the Athletics earlier in the week. The Astros are also projected to face five left-handed starters in their seven games, which would be a huge boon for Altuve in his first game back. It'd also be great news for Yuli Gurriel (18.0%), a .286/.330/.470 hitter against left-handers since the beginning of 2018.
Among players on the mend entering Week 4: Lance Lynn (shoulder, IL) is expected to be activated in time for a Friday start, drawing an extremely favorable matchup at home against Cleveland. ... Anthony Rendon (groin, IL) might be activated during the Angels' week-opening series at Texas' Globe Life Field. ... Christian Yelich (back, IL) wasn't quite ready for activation as of the April 24-25 weekend, and his status for Week 4 remains unclear as of Monday morning. His Brewers have a favorable enough left-handed hitting grade, however, which is worth keeping in mind if he's activated mid-week. ... Juan Soto (shoulder, IL) isn't eligible for activation until Friday, but the Nationals' weekend matchups for left-handed hitters is quite favorable, should we get news before lineups lock that he'll be back in time for that series.