The first of baseball's critical dates on the calendar has passed, but it's one of the game's least publicized. April 16 marked the 16th day of the regular season, and any player who had not yet spent a day on his team's 26-man active major-league roster or injured list by that date could not earn a full year's service time for 2021.
If you're unfamiliar with baseball's service time debate (which most recently ensnared Kris Bryant) teams benefit from delaying the arrival of prospects to the majors, because each full year of service time advances the player's ascent to free agency, which comes after six full seasons. Veteran fantasy managers might be more familiar with the "Super Two" arbitration debate, which in the past caused teams to hold their prospects back well into June, hoping to prevent their players from reaching arbitration status sooner. However, these days it's preventing the onset of free agency eligibility which is more front of mind.
For 2021, the debate rings as loudly as ever, due largely to the example of the Seattle Mariners' top prospect Jarred Kelenic. Despite his .300/.440/.700, 2-HR spring training in which he had four walks compared to just one strikeout in 25 trips to the plate, Kelenic failed to make the Mariners' Opening Day roster. This was despite his being widely regarded -- especially among said fantasy managers -- worthy of the honor.
Now that April 16 is behind us, however, Kelenic's promotion should be imminent. It's my guess that the only reason he hasn't already been summoned is the bad look of promoting such a player precisely on that magic date, à la Bryant in 2015. For fantasy purposes, Kelenic's rostered percentage in ESPN leagues dipped beneath 50% for the first time this season over the weekend. That number is going in the entirely wrong direction, considering the proximity of his arrival. So, in the theme of my weekly Monday pickups column, here's today's top advice: Go get Kelenic right now!
Kelenic, Kiley McDaniel's No. 3 overall prospect entering the year -- and almost universally regarded as a top-five overall prospect by the major prospect ranking resources -- has one of the most balanced skill sets of any youngster in terms of batting average, power, speed, defense and arm, though no tool on its own is MVP-caliber. It's this high floor that makes him so appealing to have and, while ESPN standard leagues limit you to three bench spots, the proximity of his promotion coupled with his potential makes him well worth the stash today. After all, the Mariners are off to a solid start, giving themselves a wild-card contender's look (or perhaps more), and their outfield has struggled thus far between performance and injuries.
Two pitchers to add
Kyle Gibson, SP, Texas Rangers: In a similar vein to last Wednesday's endorsement of Alex Cobb, Gibson is a pitcher who might feel like an awkward add, but he certainly warrants a stash based upon his returns thus far. Since an Opening Day stinker -- five runs allowed on four hits and three walks while recording only two outs -- Gibson has rattled off three straight quality starts, striking out 17-of-79 hitters in the process. Subtle changes to his pitch selection has something to do with it, as he has leaned more on the cutter he introduced last season, throwing the pitch 15% of the time to help keep left-handers in check. Gibson has limited them to a .199 wOBA thus far (after posting a 19-point wOBA righty/lefty split for his career) and he's as reliant on his swing-and-miss pitch, his slider, as ever. It's not a huge shift in approach, but it's enough to matter. This is the time of year to stash arms in the hopes that the adjustments they have made might pay bigger dividends.
Michael Kopech, SP, Chicago White Sox: It says starting pitcher, but he is being used as a relief pitcher. Well, except for the weekend spot start he made due to the team's doubleheader, that is. Kopech has been outstanding in his relief role, but the White Sox have been dishing him out workloads that keep an eventual starter's role in mind. In fact, he has faced at least seven batters and thrown at least 26 pitches in each of his five appearances. In relief, he has been able to whittle his pitch selection down to mostly his near-97-mph fastball and slider -- his two top-grade pitches -- which have transformed him into one of the best sources of ERA, WHIP and strikeouts among current relievers. Another way to look at it? Kopech already has more strikeouts on the season than Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Zack Greinke and Kenta Maeda. Kopech might deliver you 100 innings of top-shelf stuff and, in ESPN leagues that afford daily transactions, that's an advantageous piece to have to fill the gaps around your starters.
Buy low on: Jordan Montgomery, SP, New York Yankees: With all the negative attention currently focused on the Yankees rotation, it's probably prime time to acquire one of their more beneath-the-radar starters. Montgomery's numbers are far from eye-popping, but he has delivered a trio of serviceable regular-season starts, on the heels of three excellent Grapefruit League starts. Besides his now being an additional year removed from his June 2018 Tommy John surgery, Montgomery has leaned much more on the cutter he introduced in 2020. That gives him a pair of pitches -- the changeup being the other -- that neutralize any platoon split, minimize hard contact, and which he's confident enough to throw at least 20% of the time. His changeup is also a bona fide swing-and-miss offering, so it's not outrageous to think that he could continue to sport the 25% K-rate he has had since the beginning of 2020. Montgomery has borderline top-40 fantasy starter skills, but he's not generally regarded a true member of that tier. In fact, he has been let go in more than 10% of ESPN leagues over the past week.