Wednesday's theme is groups of two, as today's column provides two trade targets, two pickups, and two players you can freely cut in standard mixed leagues. With it being two weeks into the season, we've reached a prime time to begin seeking buy-low trade opportunities, especially on the pitching side where the sample sizes appear to be smaller.
Two to trade for
Dylan Bundy, SP, Los Angeles Angels: In retrospect, the fact that Bundy's ADP landed him only as the SP34 in ESPN leagues in the preseason was potentially way too late. If you still have any chance at acquiring him at the price of a sub-ace (think outside the top 25), you should go all in on the deal. Bundy enjoyed a bit of a rebirth following his trade to Los Angeles following the 2019 season, but one thing that didn't change with his move was his year-over-year fastball velocity decline, as he registered a career-low 90.0 mph with his four-seamer in 2020. It was the fourth consecutive year that number had dropped and it was the biggest note of concern entering 2021.
Bundy's current sample size might be just three regular-season starts but, thus far, his four-seamer has rebounded to 92.2 mph (his highest rate since 2017), and his lone Statcast-tracked spring start put him in this same range. His fastball velocity doesn't tell the whole story, however. Bundy has thrown the pitch noticeably less with the Angels -- just a hair more than one-third of the time, whereas he threw it at least 10% more often in Baltimore. Instead, he's been leaning on his excellent slider and improving curveball and changeup.
In short, Bundy is a more complete pitcher now than he was during his Orioles days, and the Statcast data does show that he has been one of the more unlucky pitchers thus far -- note his 2.17 xERA. His 10-strikeout, April 6 gem against the Houston Astros came against what the Forecaster grades as a top-five offense, and the league's least strikeout-prone against right-handed pitchers. In other words, considering his competition, Bundy's numbers mean a lot more.
Jesus Luzardo, SP, Oakland Athletics. Weighing the context of small-sample statistics is an important exercise in fantasy baseball, and while Luzardo hasn't pitched that effectively through three regular-season starts, he's also had a rough go of it from a scheduling perspective. Two of his first three outings came against the Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, both Forecaster top-eight graded offenses against left-handed pitchers, although there's no handy excuse for Luzardo's Tuesday stinker at the Arizona Diamondbacks (2 2/3 IP, 5 ER). Sometimes it's that inexplicable bad outing that presents a buying opportunity and, in this case, there's no reason to think that Luzardo is any less likely to be a top-30 fantasy starting pitcher today than two weeks ago. If you've got any chance at fetching him for a lower price, make the move.
Here's what's odd about Luzardo's last two starts. He went exceedingly fastball-heavy, throwing his four-seamer nearly 70% of the time in both (68.6% and 68.3%, to be exact). Those were the two highest usage rates in any of his 14 career starts (playoffs included), which simply doesn't seem like him. He has a very good slider and decent changeup, and he barely threw his sinker at all, with the uncharacteristic shifts rendering his performance-to-date unrepresentative of his true skill. Luzardo is probably going to face an innings cap -- likely in the 150 range -- and perhaps the shift was maintenance-related, but he's also a critical pitching piece for a competitive Athletics team. Expect much better things going forward.
Two to pick up
Avisail Garcia, OF, Milwaukee Brewers: I'm a fan, and I always have been. Garcia generates higher-quality contact than you might think, most notably having ranked among the league's top 7% in maximum exit velocity in each of his first six seasons in the majors. He's also much faster than you'd think, placing in the top 10% in Statcast sprint speed in each of 2015-19, as well as through two weeks of 2021. These traits make him the same potential batting average/power contributor he was from 2017-19 (a .288/19 HR three-year average), a sneaky 10-steal performer, and a player who isn't a defensive liability.
That last note is an important truth that might have contributed to the Brewers' decision to grant him a team-leading (tied with Christian Yelich) nine outfield starts in 11 games, with all 11 coming against right-handed starters. Garcia has made seven of those starts as the team's cleanup hitter, too, so he's factoring into the lineup more than expected. Considering his career success against left-handed pitching (.295/.357/.456), he's sure to lock in all of those against-lefty starts in 2021. Don't get me wrong, he's no superstar, but he's a plenty serviceable back-of-your-roster outfielder -- and one who should be rostered in far more than 18.1% of ESPN leagues.
Alex Cobb, SP, Los Angeles Angels: He's a bit of a tough sell, as he hasn't produced a fantasy-relevant season since 2017 and hasn't been considered a consistent performer for our purposes since 2014, but his first two starts did catch my eye. In his most recent turn, Cobb struck out 10 members of the Kansas City Royals, his most whiffs in a start since July 23, 2014. In both of his first two starts he generated 19 swings and misses, tied for his third-most in any start -- and his most since July 29, 2014.
One thing to know about the Royals is that they're not that whiff-prone of an offense. The fact that Cobb missed so many of their bats speaks well to the adjustments he made entering spring training, after making an offseason trip to Driveline Baseball. One change that stands out is his 45.4% reliance on the splitter, which was a career-high 53.6% in that Royals start -- a clear sign that this is not the Cobb of 2015-20. Again, this may be a tough sell, but I'm also the guy who replies to the "drop Player X" questions with, "Who's the add?" A speculative pickup on someone like Cobb, who might have significantly changed his skill set, is absolutely the kind of answer I'm seeking.
Two to let go
Devin Williams, RP, Milwaukee Brewers: In a flash, he has gone from the league's Rookie of the Year winner and 2020's fantasy RP9 to an afterthought for our purposes. Just to be very clear, this is pertaining to ESPN standard 12-and-fewer team mixed leagues where we lack the luxury of stashing players on the bench as wait-and-see moves. Tuesday's admission by manager Craig Counsell that Williams would be moved out of the primary eighth-inning role to work in lower-pressure situations was a fair move, considering neither Williams' fastball nor changeup has repeated the same excellent velocity and spin rate either enjoyed in 2020.
Williams' spring training got a delayed start due to the shoulder problems that cost him last October's Wild Card Series, and it's fair to wonder whether he's still having lingering issues, either from the injury itself or his being behind his fellow relievers during the exhibition season. Either way, here's the truth about setup men in fantasy leagues: They're fantastic to have in daily-transaction leagues, filling the gaps left on your starters' days off, but they must provide top-shelf ERA, WHIP and strikeout help in order to justify the roster spot. Williams might return to that status a few weeks from now but, for the short term, he's not providing that punch.
Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers: I was optimistic about his chances of breaking through during the preseason, and he does still provide the raw speed to be an asset in fantasy leagues, but Taveras' first two weeks of the regular season couldn't have gone much worse. Through 11 Rangers games, he has a third-worst (among hitters) minus-7 fantasy points, due mostly to his14 K's in 28 at-bats. He's also now losing time to Eli White against both left- and right-handers.
Taveras' No. 8 spot in the Opening Day lineup already took his fantasy value steeply in the wrong direction, and he's now generally regarded as the nine-hitter when he gets the nod. These are things that diminish his counting stats and present real problems, especially considering he plays for one of the weakest offenses in baseball. It would be great to see the Rangers maintain a commitment to him (given their rebuilding status) and simply let him work through things in the majors, but at this point he's harming his fantasy teams more than helping. Plus, his skill set is too risk/reward to expect a quick turnaround.