Catcher is one of the tougher positions to fill in fantasy baseball these days. If you happened to have gone "the cheap route" for your behind-the-plate needs during your 2021 draft, then the first of today's three recommended pickups might be able to give you some help.
1. Carson Kelly, C, Arizona Diamondbacks: An "outside the draft-worthy tier" backstop during the preseason, Kelly had been given that label primarily due to playing time concerns. Those concerns appeared to be justified after teammate and fellow catcher Stephen Vogt got two of the first three starting assignments of the season. Since that point, however, Kelly has started 10-of-14 games, including both of Zac Gallen's starts in what appears to be a personal-catcher arrangement. Kelly has started off 5-for-7 with two home runs against left-handed pitchers -- boosting his career rates to .280/.376/.530. This should help convince manager Torey Lovullo to continue to slot him into the order most anytime there's a lefty scheduled on the opponent's mound.
In ESPN leagues, where daily transactions are the norm, Kelly is a handy option because of how easy it is to know exactly when to activate him. Those starts against lefties, for sure, but he also has a .195 ISO against right-handed pitchers since joining the Diamondbacks in 2019 -- meaning he's a good start against homer-prone righties as well. Kelly has even shown hints of growth in this, his sixth big-league season, following a lengthier learning curve that isn't unlike that of Yadier Molina, behind whom Kelly played from 2016-18.
Kelly has cut his chase rate by nearly 3% and he's getting more lift on the ball, with a 19% Barrel rate thus far that would obliterate his 6.7% career number. There's a potential top-10 fantasy catcher season in his bat, and he's still available in more than 70% of ESPN leagues.
2. Josh Harrison, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals: While I'm not a big believer in his staying power, sometimes "juicing the orange" is a viable strategy, particularly when the player receives the benefit of a short-term role boost. That's Harrison, the Nationals' No. 2 hitter against a right-hander on Tuesday -- a role previously occupied by the great Juan Soto, who is now on the injured list for at least the next week and a half.
Harrison is neither a star, nor is he likely to elevate his game to those levels, but he has seemingly improved enough to contribute to fantasy teams for the foreseeable future, locking down the team's regular second base role, regardless of Soto's status. This is because Starlin Castro is now handling third base duties in the wake of Carter Kieboom's miserable spring.
Check out what Harrison has done since joining the Nationals last season. He's posted .318/.390/.467 hitting rates and four home runs in 41 games. He has chased a non-strike only 25% of the time thus far -- a huge improvement for a player with a 36% career rate -- and is hitting fastballs with much more authority than in the past. Enjoy it while it lasts -- and do it with Harrison in your daily fantasy lineup.
3. Ryan Weathers, SP, San Diego Padres: This one leans more towards deeper-league (think 15-team-mixed-plus) or dynasty managers, but Weathers' fantasy stock got a deserved boost with the news that he had earned another start following his solid Friday outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers. It also helps his chances that the No. 5 starter he replaced in the rotation, Adrian Morejon, needs Tommy John surgery.
Dinelson Lamet's anticipated return from the injured list on Wednesday does cloud Weathers' long-term rotation status, but remember that this Padres team has consistently made overtures that it plans to keep all of its starters' workloads in check. Morejon's loss is especially damaging to those plans because there's a clear need for a long man in the bullpen and that's an area that has been hit hard by injuries.
Weathers' four-seam fastball and slider have thus far each generated over 20% swinging-strike rates, and he does have a serviceable changeup for the times that he's tasked with starting. However, the reason I like him is the now-improved chance that he'll deliver 100 innings for this team out of a swingman role. That might be enough to put him in the 3.25 ERA, 120-strikeout range. Improving his control -- preferably to closer to his low-minors rates of 2018-19 -- might be his lone obstacle to meeting that projection.
Trade for this guy
Zach Plesac, SP, Cleveland: He was a divisive name in the fantasy community entering 2021, having delivered a SP15 finish on 2020's ESPN Player Rater. Unfortunately, many metrics hint that may have been a bit of a mirage, including his league-high (minimum eight starts) 91.7% LOB rate and a minus-1.11 ERA/FIP differential. Still, Plesac did make tweaks to his pitch selection which validated (somewhat) the breakthrough, including his easing off of a so-so four-seam fastball while leaning more on his wipeout slider, as well as flashing pinpoint control.
He has maintained a similar approach through his first four starts of 2021, with peripherals well within range of his 2020 numbers. If his 3.39 FIP of 2020 said that he was "lucky" then, his 3.98 FIP this far in 2021 says that he has been extremely unlucky now. It's a fair claim, as Plesac has really only had two bad starts in four tries -- both coming against the Chicago White Sox. There's no reason he should have been dropped in 6.2% of ESPN leagues during the past week, as he possesses the same raw ability he had at the time of your draft, when he was an unquestioned top-40 fantasy starter.
Let's show some concern
Jorge Polanco, SS/2B, Minnesota Twins: This may be an easy thing to say about a player who has mere .167/.239/.217 hitting rates and zero home runs in 67 trips to the plate. What makes Polanco's case stand out is the limited amount of improvement I see from him. Polanco's Statcast sprint speed plummeted in 2020, which could have been attributed to his recovery from a winter 2019-20 ankle procedure, except that this number has dipped even further thus far in 2021 -- to the point that he's only in the 55th percentile in this category.
Considering he doesn't deliver much hard contact, even a 20 HR/15 SB season might be a long shot, with his fantasy appeal tied to playing time. Right now, the Twins need him in a prominent role, but when the team gets healthier, that might not be as much the case. Luis Arraez and Willians Astudillo are both plenty capable of filling in at second base. If you're a Polanco fantasy manager, you should begin to seek an upgrade at his position.