Perhaps we in the fantasy baseball world should have taken the honest complaints of Boston Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez, Chicago Cubs SS Javier Baez and others more seriously. Quite notably, major league baseball removed in-game video during the 2020 season. Certain players struggled to hit and they told everyone who dared to listen why it happened. Many scoffed. Now they are hitting again and all is well.
This may all seem too simplistic but, then again, Martinez slugged three home runs in Baltimore on Sunday, giving him five on the young season, along with 17 hits in 36 at-bats. He hit just .213 with seven home runs over 54 games last season. Sure, this is Orioles pitching, but Martinez faced it last season, too. Martinez obviously looks better than he did in 2020, and much more like his old self. Two of his three Sunday blasts went to right field. Rejoice!
Baez hit .203 with a mere eight home runs in 2020. He smacked a pair this weekend in Pittsburgh (giving him three home runs in nine games) and he has already matched his three stolen bases from 2020. Apparently, in-game video helps players not only in crushing baseballs 450 feet, but also in running 90 feet from first base to second without someone tagging them out as well. I jest, but who knows for sure what is really going on?
What's really going on?
What I think is happening here is that Martinez and Baez are simply more comfortable with their old routines -- and baseball is nothing if not a game of routine. They are the notable players that mentioned the lack of in-game video as the difference in their 2020 statistics, after years of safe, reliable hitting numbers. Should we believe them? Well, Martinez hit .313 with an average of 41 home runs from 2017-19. Baez hit .282 with 29 home runs per season in that same span.
Some of the players off to surprising starts after 10 days look like obvious "sell-high" options, but Martinez and Baez are not among them. I have already moved those fellows up in my rest-of-season rankings and, if I had any more drafts left, perhaps I would invest. Then again, perhaps not. Martinez struggled to hit faster fastballs in 2020 and he is 33, so it was easy to call him "old" and move on to Yordan Alvarez, if one desired a designated hitter. Martinez is still 33. Yeah, he's back, but he can't face Orioles pitching every day.
Ultimately, my view on the truncated 2020 season was that we should give some benefit of the doubt to proven hitters, which is why Martinez remained a seventh-round pick for me, and Baez was just a bit after that. We still ranked them quite well! We also ranked Christian Yelich well. Some of what we have seen so far is noise. Texas Rangers 1B Nate Lowe started out 8-for-21 with 14 RBI. He has nary a hit in his 13 at-bats since. Perhaps he should try using more in-game video?
Other weekend highlights
Quite a few fantasy managers missed Martinez slugging three home runs because they thought he was still on the COVID-19 list. Well, he was, as of Saturday. Late Sunday morning, he came off the list and the rest is history. Yeah, some of us missed it. The COVID-19 list is not like the 10-day injured list. Players come and go from the list all the time, even a day later, and fantasy managers miss things. This is unfortunate but, ultimately, Martinez coming off the list and being in Sunday's lineup was hardly a secret and it was fair game for all. There will be more of this as the game plays on through this pandemic.
I recommended San Diego Padres RHP Joe Musgrove when he was a Houston Astros minor leaguer back in 2015 and every season since, but his ERA would always end up significantly higher than his FIP. Some pitchers are like this, annually underperforming the peripherals. Perhaps Musgrove is finally emerging as an ace -- a truly valuable fantasy option. He no-hit the Rangers on Friday night, the first no-hitter in Padres history. It was a fantastic performance. Musgrove has permitted just three hits and nary a walk in 15 innings so far, with 18 strikeouts. I want to move him all the way into my top-20 starting pitchers right now, but I am wary. Musgrove is relying more than 50% of the time on a new cutter/slider mix, when he used to be a predictable fastball pitcher. So far, so great! Still, opposing teams will begin to prepare for this new Musgrove -- even the lowly Pirates, who are up next. Revenge game!
Let's circle back to Baez and the Cubs. They are hitting a pathetic .167 in nine games, scoring just six runs in losing 2-of-3 this weekend to the Pirates, overmatched against Mitch Keller and JT Brubaker. Few would notice a nine-game stretch of this ilk in June, but the Cubs hit an anemic .220 over the two months of 2020, and several veteran pieces could end up elsewhere before August. Perhaps this is what third baseman Kris Bryant and catcher Willson Contreras need. I am sure Cubs hitters have another gear, but I am not actively trading for them, either.
No, I do not think Philadelphia Phillies 3B Alec Bohm touched the plate in the ninth inning in Atlanta on Sunday night, but (speaking of video) the replay system is flawed. No fantasy angle here, but everyone is talking about it. I would prefer talking about Bohm leading off the inning with a rocket double into right-center. He reminds me of Nick Castellanos, at least the one who, until this season always seemed to hit .280 with 25 homers. By the way, Atlanta outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. moves to No. 1 in my rankings, sliding past injured Dodger Mookie Betts. The Dodgers are so good and so deep that I doubt any of their hitters play 150 games.
Would you prefer Martinez instead of Minnesota Twins DH Nelson Cruz? How about both? This was an ongoing debate on our Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast and I kept choosing Cruz. He is also my pick for AL MVP this season. Martinez is younger, certainly, but Cruz, 40, is hitting .444 with four home runs. He and Martinez might each be top-20 overall hitters in fantasy this season, despite the fact they do not steal bases. That's how good they are.
Los Angeles Angels OF Dexter Fowler tore the ACL in his left knee on Friday and, while he was barely rostered in ESPN standard leagues, managers did stash prospect Jo Adell on benches. There is no indication this injury accelerates Adell back to the majors. I think defensive maven Juan Lagares will play more, but also Jared Walsh likely moves from first base to right field to make room for future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols. This does not mean you must roster Pujols in fantasy. We should be smart enough to separate the fact Pujols has had an amazing, Hall-of-Fame career from the fact that he is simply not that player anymore.
Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast
LISTEN: Moving on from Joe Musgrove? That's a no-no!
Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft discuss the first no-hitter in Padres history (2:00), a pair of stars actually producing like stars now that they have video analysis back (4:45) and Player Rater surprises from early in the season (7:45). They wonder if the Cubs are, as a whole, broken (10:45), discuss what injuries mean moving forward (13:05) and give you the ninth-inning insight you need (14:30). And, of course, you get your Combo Meals (24:25), the upcoming week's preview (25:40) and hash-brown answers (37:00)!