Perhaps we all want to root for Detroit Tigers outfielder Akil Baddoo because this is such a fun, unexpected tale. The instantly popular Rule 5 pick is slugging home runs and producing game-winning hits in his first week in the major leagues, all while his excited parents enjoy the show from the stands. I am enjoying the show, too. This is fun! Baseball is fun! Yet, here comes Mr. Mean Fantasy Baseball Analyst Eric to tell you why it was so unexpected in the first place and why Baddoo's place on the most-added list appears to be premature.
Baddoo, 22, is a toolsy, left-handed hitter from Maryland who hit .214 with four home runs over 131 plate appearances for Single-A Fort Myers in the Florida State League in 2019. Like most minor leaguers, he did not play in 2020, although in his case, he was also recovering from Tommy John surgery. A second-round pick of the Minnesota Twins back in 2016, Baddoo had been in their minor-league system for four years. He hit .249 with plate discipline, but few thought that a superstar lurked. The Twins left him off of their 40-man roster last offseason and the rebuilding Tigers pounced.
The Tigers are not exactly stacked in the big-league outfield, with Robbie Grossman, JaCoby Jones and Victor Reyes gracing their Opening Day lineup. Baddoo started in their third game, batting ninth, and slugged an opposite-field home run on the very first pitch he saw. What an awesome story! He saw seven pitches over three at-bats, one a strikeout. On Monday, he slugged a grand slam and stole a base! On Tuesday, it was a walk-off RBI single. He started on Wednesday and tripled in a run off Kenta Maeda in the second inning. Is there anything that Akil Baddoo cannot do?
Well, there obviously is, so be careful in who you decide to cut, dear fantasy managers, in order to add Baddoo to your teams. This is a different fairy tale from Chicago White Sox rookie "catcher" Yermin Mercedes, a journeyman 28-year-old with a history of hitting, including a 1.033 OPS at Triple-A Charlotte in 2019. Mercedes is not a raw hitter. We can debate whether he could play catcher better right now than Kyle Schwarber or you and I, but it does not matter. Chicago has a catcher. They needed a DH. They might have one. I think Mercedes will hit -- and play -- enough to be a potential top-10 catcher in fantasy. Wild, right?
Baddoo's other side of the game
Baddoo saw nary a plate appearance above High-A ball, and he even struggled making contact there, though he drew walks. The decision by the Tigers to select him reminded me of the Baltimore Orioles choosing shortstop Richie Martin in the Rule 5 draft from the Oakland Athletics organization two years earlier. Martin, at least, had played Double-A ball. He struggled for the Orioles and, after one season, went back to the minors. Similarly, the Tigers likely figured they could keep Baddoo around for 2021 (especially with winning not being an immediate priority) and he would head to the minors for at least 2022. Hey, that still could happen.
Still, why unilaterally extinguish a potential fantasy asset, right? Surprises occur, and Baddoo did hit 11 home runs with 24 stolen bases and 74 walks in his age-19 season in Low-A ball in the Midwest League in 2018. It proved little since he also whiffed 124 times, but he clearly boasts intriguing bat-to-ball tools, and it behooves the Tigers to let him play. Perhaps Miami Marlins infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. is a rough offensive comp. Baddoo is physically bigger, but each hits left-handed, with some pop and more speed, and pitchers can exploit them due to their lack of contact skills. Jazzy Baddoo, the new indie band you've just gotta check out!
The Tigers have to keep Baddoo on their roster. You, dear fantasy managers, do not. While it's not a mistake to add Baddoo to fantasy teams, be prepared to move on if this Cinderella story takes a sudden downwards turn. Let us just say that pitchers are going to figure out how to deal with him, and then it is up to Baddoo to react. The Tigers did not expect this fun start. If they had, Baddoo would have played more in the first week. We can root for success, but we need to be reasonable, too.
Rookies in the news
Thursday is the day we discuss rookies/prospects in this blog. At some point, when the minor leagues get going and we have a better idea of what teams actually intend to do with their young personnel, we can frame it as a "call-up" watch for our fantasy world -- but we're not there yet. San Diego Padres prized left-hander MacKenzie Gore, for example, has not thrown a pitch in Triple-A ... and who knows when he will? We have no idea what he is doing.
For now, here are rookies at the major-league level on my mind today. These are hardly the most-hyped or best rookies, of course. Nada is happening with Seattle Mariners outfielder Jarred Kelenic to discuss him today. Here, then, are the ones actually in the news.
Cincinnati Reds infielder Jonathan India has already reached double-digit RBI, which is quite the feat in one week of games. India, who will soon add second base eligibility to third base in ESPN leagues, has hits in all six games, though he has feasted on some rough pitching (mostly from the Pirates). That will change soon. I want to see him continue to make contact versus right-handed pitching before heralding that he can keep a .270 batting average -- which he could not manage in the minors. Add him for his current fun over Baddoo. Perhaps we will be keeping India around, rather than turning to veterans such as Adam Frazier and Manuel Margot.
Atlanta Braves center fielder Cristian Pache looks overmatched at the plate, as if striking out in eight out of 16 PA is not enough of an indicator. Again, pitchers (and those who advise pitchers on how to pitch to hitters) are rather smart. They adapt. Pache is a wonderful defender in center field, much like the fellow he pushed to the bench (veteran Ender Inciarte), and I do wonder if Atlanta turns to other options in May, should Pache not hit. Yes, it is early and Pache might be just fine, and Atlanta can bury him in a loaded lineup. This is just an observation.
In the rookie catcher race, Cincinnati's Tyler Stephenson stands out. He is a right-handed hitter -- and one with plate discipline. He should see ample playing time versus lefties. Tucker Barnhart stands in the way of full-time work, for now, but eventually this is not going to be a contest. Stephenson is going to hit and we should be looking at a top-10 catcher for 2022. I am not as optimistic about Twins rookie Ryan Jeffers, with strikeouts in seven out of his 10 at-bats. Dom Nunez has a few home runs for the Colorado Rockies, but that is all he has done, so who knows? Still, he's got Coors Field. I like Texas Rangers switch-hitter Jonah Heim more.
As for the starting pitchers, I wanted to see more of well-built Boston Red Sox right-hander Tanner Houck, a September star who struck out 10 out of the 26 Orioles and Rays he faced in the first week. Alas, there is (apparently) no rotation room and he is off the roster for now. Keep him around in deeper formats, though.
Cincinnati's Jose De Leon, somehow still rookie eligible in his fifth big-league season, fanned nine Pirates on Monday. Still, yes, I'm going to go there, we need to see him do that versus better lineups. Fortunately, Arizona and Cleveland are up next, so De Leon might go untested for weeks.
Dane Dunning looked good for the Texas Rangers and a strikeout future lurks, but he remains on a pitch count. He was just so efficient, needing only 70 pitches through five innings, with nary a walk, that he earned the win.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is utilizing skinny right-hander Triston McKenzie in a hybrid relief role, much like the Philadelphia Phillies plan to do with Spencer Howard. I do not expect either to deliver useful fantasy numbers that way.
In the relief world, I mentioned White Sox right-hander Michael Kopech in the Tuesday Relief Report, and could have included Los Angeles Angels right-hander Chris Rodriguez with him. Rodriguez, another electric starting pitcher prospect waiting his turn until 2022 for a rotation spot, should miss bats, at the least. His major issue has been staying healthy. Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Julian Merryweather still has rookie eligibility as well, but we have discussed him enough!
Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast
LISTEN: Injuries: Playing the long game
Stephania Bell joins the show to not only talk Fernando Tatis Jr. (0:25), but also ailing stars George Springer and Cody Bellinger (11:35). Eric Karabell and Tristian H. Cockcroft discuss the value surrounding those injuries (16:20) before tackling the week that was (23:30), the confusing bullpens (37:40) and players who are moving up the ranks through seven days (48:25).