The revolving door of the Houston Astros rotation continued to turn this weekend as free agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi joined up on a multi-year contract. We can presume this was in response to the finger injury suffered by left-hander Framber Valdez but wait, there is unfortunately more. Top prospect Forrest Whitley has a tear in the UCL of his valuable elbow and needs Tommy John surgery. He still has yet to debut in the big leagues and it will not happen in 2021.
Future Hall of Fame right-hander Zack Greinke leads the rotation and Valdez, according to ESPN ADP, was going only three rounds later, in the 15th round. That is surprising enough, proving (to me) that Greinke remains underrated because so many pessimists believe his age and fastball velocity are catastrophic issues. Still, it also shows how much in demand Valdez was. Well, Valdez, 27, fractured the ring finger on his pitching hand in his first spring start last Tuesday. Perhaps he can still avoid season-ending surgery, but it seems unlikely.
Enter Odorizzi, now joining his fourth AL organization and looking to remain reliable in the fantasy world. Odorizzi has fashioned a 3.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over his last six full seasons, with a reasonable strikeout rate and durability along the way. In 2019, he won 15 games. In 2020, he did not win any of his four outings, succumbing to various maladies not involving his elbow. He is hardly an ace, but a 3.88 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and double-digit wins would make him a top-50 fantasy starter. He might not be ready for the first week or two of the season after signing so late, but do not let him slip far outside the top 200 overall, either.
In addition to Greinke, the Houston rotation figures to rely on right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. (whose ADP is similar to Valdez), Jose Urquidy (underrated, but hittable) and Cristian Javier (no more bullpen for him), with prospects Luis Garcia, Bryan Abreu and Tyler Ivey lurking. Whitley is yet another reminder of the risk of young pitching. He could still be great someday, but now his 2022 season will start late as well. Remember, there is no Justin Verlander this season as he is on the mend from Tommy John surgery. Houston's sub-.500 record (but with a playoff appearance) in 2020 notwithstanding, this remains a good team, so fantasy managers will want their hurlers.
In other Astros news, the "first Houston player off the board" in most drafts is third baseman Alex Bregman, who has yet to see action in spring games due to a lingering hamstring injury. There is no indication this will be a problem come April. Draft Bregman, emerging outfielder Kyle Tucker and designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (now healthy after surgeries on both knees) with confidence. As for second baseman Jose Altuve, I cannot claim the same level of confidence, but at least he is healthy.
Anyway, that's the news surrounding the Astros. Here is a weekend Stock Watch of news from other teams around the league.
Stock up
Joey Gallo, OF, Texas Rangers: There is often little context surrounding Spring Training statistics, which is why we should not focus on them too much with proven, veteran players assured of jobs. Still, it is kind of cool to see Gallo -- who I noted in last week's "Do Not Draft" column is among those I am fading, due to batting average concerns -- smacking four home runs in his first five games. The key category here is not the power. We know he has it. He has only three strikeouts! Still, that's without context, because even the veteran pitchers he faced might simply be working on new pitches or whatever. I have no idea if Gallo will hit his weight this season, but I am watching him a bit.
Sam Hilliard, OF, Colorado Rockies: A big spring for him would theoretically matter more because his playing time is far from guaranteed, and he could win a starting job for a team that plays half its games in high altitude. Hilliard boasts a minor-league history not only of showing power, but he also drew walks and stole bases. On Saturday, Hilliard drew his second walk and stole his second base of the very new spring. Perhaps it means nothing, but I think many of us would like to see what Hilliard does with 500 plate appearances this season.
Madison Bumgarner, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks: I do believe the fantasy hate for this fellow has gone a bit far. I mean, he did whiff 203 hitters with a 3.90 ERA in 2019. Yes, 2020 went poorly, away from the friendly pitching environment of San Francisco. His first spring outing did not go poorly. All six of his recorded outs came via the strikeout and he only allowed a single baserunner. Plus, his fastball velocity was back up to 90 MPH. No, that is not Jordan Hicks territory, but I do believe Bumgarner can be a top-60 starter again.
Also trending up: Josh Donaldson, 3B, Minnesota Twins; Jose Quintana, SP, Los Angeles Angels; Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals; Bobby Dalbec, 1B, Boston Red Sox; Austin Meadows, OF, Tampa Bay Rays; Ty France, 2B, Seattle Mariners
Stock down
Nate Pearson, SP, Toronto Blue Jays: I am already fading most pitching prospects for this season, and Pearson must prove he can stay healthy. This one is not an arm injury, but a grade 1 groin strain, which might not spell doom to him making the Opening Day rotation, but it hardly helps. Pearson is already a major injury risk as we see connection between high velocity rates and arm woes, and control issues hampered him in 2020. This season, I am more likely to take a boring, safe veteran bereft of upside (such as Zach Davies) than Pearson.
Craig Kimbrel, RP, Chicago Cubs: His Friday outing was fun, as he permitted four hits -- I do not know if they were hard-hit or leaky grounders -- while also hitting a batter in his messy inning. At least he walked nary a hitter! Look, if Kimbrel did not have 348 career saves, you would not view him the way you do, but this wild version is nearing 33 years old and has a 6.00 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in two seasons as a member of the Cubs. From Ryan Tepera to Rowan Wick, Jason Adam and Brandon Workman, there will be save chances for others in this bullpen.
Tommy Pham, OF, San Diego Padres: Again, going hitless in 10 spring at-bats with six strikeouts might mean nothing and he does not drop in my rankings (yet), but Pham is definitely in a bit of a different situation than most. First, he struggled at the plate in 2020. Then, he needed offseason wrist surgery (which could sap power) and another to address a stab wound from an incident at a bar. Finally, the Padres are deep. Jake Cronenworth, Jurickson Profar and Haseong Kim warrant playing time and, as of now, they have hust one starting spot available to them. Pham has to hit to keep playing.
Also trending down: Garrett Richards, SP, Boston Red Sox; Kwang-Hyun Kim, SP, St. Louis Cardinals; Evan Longoria, 3B, San Francisco Giants; Adam Haseley, OF, Philadelphia Phillies; Sean Doolittle, RP, Cincinnati Reds