New York Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez has come to the plate to bat 998 times over the past three regular seasons, with 875 of them counting as official at-bats, and he managed to reach via a base hit 175 times. Math tells us that is a lowly .200 batting average, right on the button, and by the way, that is worse than the career batting average for 1970s utility infielder Mario Mendoza, still an unfortunate lightning rod for derision with his "Mendoza Line." He hit .215. Perhaps we call .200 the "Sanchez Line."
Sanchez has hit better than that in one of the past three seasons, and he is a problem in fantasy baseball because we have a good idea at this point that he is not going to help a team - his Yankees or yours - in batting average. In fact, he does his best to destroy it. Oh, Sanchez possesses enticing power, enough to hit 62 home runs in that three-year span, and no catcher boasts more. Is it all worth it?
No, let me swiftly answer that for you. It is not worth it if batting average matters in your league.
Three-year averages are popular in evaluating players for the coming season and Sanchez, despite hitting baseballs hard and far, ranks fifth-worst in that span in batting average, but the other four options are not likely to see their name chosen in your ESPN draft. When I am in a draft, assuming batting average is a category for roto or head-to-head purposes, or as it relates to his ceiling in a points league, I avoid Sanchez. I avoid batting average killers. A myriad of power hitters are available, even in the latter rounds, and investing in one with such a serious handicap seems silly. By the way, he is not exactly Johnny Bench behind the plate either. Playing time should become an issue soon.
Sanchez has company in frustrating fantasy managers in batting average over the past three seasons. There is Texas Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo (.213), Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Kole Calhoun (.221), Boston Red Sox outfielder Hunter Renfroe (.222) and Minnesota Twins first baseman Miguel Sano (.222), and each is currently showing up in ESPN live draft trends. Gallo might be top 100. Sano used to be. Hey, power is awesome, but not at that expense, and there is little reason to believe these hitters will change their ways anytime soon.
Welcome to the 2021 edition of the oft-misunderstood "Do Not Draft" list, in which I share with you my thoughts on players to avoid for the coming season. I do this in fantasy football and basketball as well, and have done it for a long time, rarely altering my ways. Usually I note how it is all about value, and of course, I would invest in "Player A" should he slip 10 rounds past my evaluation of him. In this case, with low batting average options, I just avoid them, even if they slip. Not worth it. Point made.
Fantasy sports are often a game of risk versus reward but there are only certain risks worth taking. Punting a category in roto can work as a reasonable strategy, with batting average one of the more popular ones, but the best way to win a league is to try to win each category. In points formats, avoid negative markers, like outs. Still. If I am going to ignore a category this season, stolen bases make more sense on the hitting side. For pitchers, it has to be saves.
Regardless, here is my latest list, and with everyone else below, the normal caveats apply to how to interpret the meaning of the column. Generally, I would invest in the player at a more reasonable cost (draft or auction), whatever that might be, but whether using ESPN ADP (average draft position) or other sites for this exercise, with the above players and below, the value is just not right for me. Perhaps it is for you and really, since they are your teams, do what is best for you. We will go in order of ESPN ADP, and yes, some of these names show up every season!
Aaron Judge & Giancarlo Stanton, OF, New York Yankees: Not to pick on the Yankees, but facts are facts, folks. Judge is going quite a bit earlier than Stanton in drafts, but each of these fellows have the same problem. They simply do not play enough. Judge has barely 1,000 plate appearances over the past three seasons, missing 50 games in 2018, then 60 games the next season, before a calf strain held him out more than half of the 2020 campaign. His power, as with Stanton, is magical, arguably the best in the sport, and yes, when he gets hurt we can replace him with someone else, just like the Yankees do, but who wants to deal with that every year? Stop expecting better health from these players.
Josh Hader, RP, Milwaukee Brewers: I have little doubt this electric left-hander will both stay healthy and pitch well in 2021, but he is still a relief pitcher, hindered by volume of innings. There are simply too many valuable hitters and starting pitchers out there in the sixth round, which is where eager investors grab Hader and start the relief pitcher train moving. The top closer always makes this list because the top closer is rarely worth it, especially considering other options available at the time. I prefer Chicago White Sox right-hander Liam Hendriks to Hader, but not this early. I acknowledge the mess there is finding saves this season -- half the teams could lack clarity -- but we can and will get them in the middle rounds.
Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals: For the first of the two 2020 baseball-playing months it sure looked as if leading the "Do Not Draft" list last season with Mondesi appeared smart. Then Mondesi was arguably the top player in fantasy for the final three weeks. Mondesi could lead the sport in stolen bases, but there are several impediments here. One, his wild-swinging ways dictate a potentially troubling batting average, and he boasts a career .284 OBP, so I would argue he does not reach base enough to steal the number of bases most expect. Two, despite playing nearly every game in 2020, Mondesi struggled to stay on the field in previous seasons, a trait not rare for base stealers who find their bodies struggle to hold up. I choose surer things in the early rounds.
J.T. Realmuto, C, Philadelphia Phillies: The top catcher generally ends up on this list, and Realmuto is no different. No catcher makes my top 100 for ESPN roto leagues, for which there remains only one catcher spot. I think differently in multi-catcher formats, but I still would fade Realmuto in the overall top 50. Catchers simply do not play as much as other hitters, and this one, in particular, could not finish either of the past two seasons on the field. They get hurt more, and sometimes we have no idea they are hurt when they continue playing. They feature wide ranges of cold streaks at the plate, too. Realmuto is the best fantasy catcher, but this is his age-30 season and, well, in one-catcher formats I will wait until the end and perhaps recycle through the spot.
Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins: As with others on this list, sure, I love to watch them play! Judge and Stanton hit baseballs 500 feet! Mondesi hits triples and steals bases, so exciting. Buxton possesses speed, pop, a Gold Glove in center field. He does not possess durability. Buxton has played parts of six big league seasons, eclipsing 331 plate appearances once. Once. This is mainly the Judge/Stanton argument, but in addition, Buxton sold out for power in 2020 and hit 13 home runs, drawing two walks. Two. He stole only two bases as well. Round 10 is just too early for me.
Dinelson Lamet, SP, San Diego Padres: A breakout performer in 2020, Lamet, who had Tommy John surgery in 2018, missed the end of the season with an elbow injury, and then avoided surgery. He underwent platelet-rich-plasma injection, but that is a temporary fix. The Padres were so aggressive in adding starting pitchers, confirming general fears that Lamet is a major injury risk, and they will surely handle him with extra caution this season. Lamet is great, but volume matters, and he is not among my top 25 starting pitchers.
Ten others whose value is not quite right for me:
•Randy Arozarena, OF, Tampa Bay Rays: Sorry, but playoff heroes often get overrated
•Cavan Biggio, 2B/3B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays: Batting average, and playing time risk
•Salvador Perez, C, Kansas City Royals: Hit 98 points higher than his previous season
•Kenley Jansen, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers: This is the year they have other options
•Brad Hand, RP, Washington Nationals: Dropping velocity is a legit concern
•Josh Bell, 1B, Washington Nationals: One great month in 2019, not much else
•Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Angels: Pick one, sir, hitter or pitcher
•Luis Severino, SP, New York Yankees: Perhaps he returns midseason. Perhaps.
•Nick Madrigal, 2B, Chicago White Sox: No power at all, and it is tough to hit .340 annually
•Jonathan Villar, 2B, New York Mets: He is not good, and not likely to play or run much