From Andre Scrubb to Yimi Garcia, 132 pitchers saved a regular season game during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Jordan Hicks was not one of them. Hicks was on the mend from Tommy John surgery and probably could have pitched, but taking his recovery, his diabetes and the pandemic into account, he sat the season out. Now he is back and the Cardinals, perhaps the leading contender to win the NL Central, have yet to announce formally their intentions at closer.
Most presume it will be Hicks, a saver of 20 games over 102 games in his first two big league seasons, though manager Mike Shildt could turn to right-handers Giovanny Gallegos and Alex Reyes, left-hander Andrew Miller, or someone else. This situation demands our attention in the fantasy baseball world because this is a good team unlikely to go committee. Hicks boasts many admirers since he is one of the hardest throwers in the sport, if not leading the list, as his fastball routinely hits triple-digits on the radar gun.
However, if Shildt desires a top strikeout option, Hicks would not be the choice. Gallegos, who tied Miller for the 2020 team lead with four saves, fanned 36% of the hitters he faced in 2020, tops on the club and a top-20 figure in baseball. He also walked a mere four hitters, culminating in a cool 0.86 WHIP. Reyes, for years one of the top starting pitcher prospects in the sport, came in at a 30% K rate. Hicks, despite the speed of his fastball, has a career 22.5% K rate, which would have ranked No. 110 among relievers in 2020, and a rather ordinary 3.47 ERA and 1.23 WHIP.
Still, opportunity is arguably as important a factor as skill for fantasy and we think Shildt will look for Hicks to seize the role. Those in NFBC leagues have decided Hicks is the pitcher to target, followed two rounds later by Gallegos, with Reyes falling far behind and Miller a relative afterthought. Time will tell if this is the right move, and perhaps clarity is not coming anytime soon, but we must see how Hicks pitches the next few month-plus. He is the one to watch, though many of us could be overrating him. Hicks may or may not boast the statistical upside of the others, but opportunity for saves will separate them in our game.
Last week I discussed players to watch in spring training but let us focus on saves for this exercise. Interestingly, and perhaps this is far from shocking considering the great divide between contenders and also-rans in the American League, this is really all about the National League. The Tampa Bay Rays won 40 games last season and 12 different pitchers saved them; I doubt any Ray emerges as a 20-save option. The Baltimore Orioles and Detroit Tigers are bad, and unlikely to warrant much fantasy attention even if someone emerges. In the NL, though, especially with free agent additions, uncertainty reigns!
Arizona Diamondbacks: Perhaps veteran right-hander Joakim Soria signed here with the -- hint, hint -- promise of saves, but right-hander Stefan Crichton performed capably in 2020 and Kevin Ginkel was supposed to handle the role last season after the Archie Bradley trade. Soria ranks fourth among active hurlers in saves, but last reached 20 of them in 2015! This might be a legit camp battle!
Cincinnati Reds: Perhaps similarly, veteran lefty Sean Doolittle might have chosen the Reds because saves are a distinct possibility, but we cannot presume good performance or health in this instance. Doolittle barely pitched in 2020, and struggled when active. An extreme fly ball option, he has permitted 14 home runs since the start of 2019, over 67 2/3 innings. Lefty Amir Garrett and right-hander Lucas Sims loom.
Philadelphia Phillies: This situation seems clearer than the others, with two main right-handed choices in Archie Bradley -- also a newcomer -- and Hector Neris. Lefties Jose Alvarado and Tony Watson and right-hander Brandon Kintzler, who fell one save short of leading the NL in 2020, could force their way into the ninth inning but I think they are setup men. Neris was bad in 2020. Bradley was good. I think Bradley gets the nod but he needs to pitch well in March.
San Diego Padres: Right-hander Mark Melancon -- another newcomer! -- ranks sixth among actives in saves, and I doubt anyone would argue he is better than strikeout lefty Drew Pomeranz or right-handers Emilio Pagan and Keone Kela (when healthy), but here we are. Manager Jayce Tingler has a great team, and myriad bullpen options. This could be like the Rays, really, with so many choices than Tingler cannot go wrong and he shares the role. It would frustrate fantasy managers.
San Francisco Giants: Best I can tell, every big league team has a reliever or numerous ones currently among the top 500 in average live draft position on NFBC, including the Orioles and Tigers, but not the Giants. Nary a one! Right-hander Reyes Moronta is first up, and he could be the top option, but he missed the 2020 season while right-hander Matt Wisler and lefty Jake McGee signed as a free agents and each pitched great.