There weren't many landing spots this offseason where Trevor Bauer could have strengthened his fantasy value. However, by agreeing to terms with the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers, he might well have ended up selecting the only new home where that will actually be the case.
Bauer, for those unaware, has been making overtures for more than a year now to be the major leagues' only starter tasked with regularly working on only three days of rest. He was one of just eight pitchers to pitch even a single game in such a short-rest start while throwing at least 75 pitches in 2020. His 12 strikeouts in that Sept. 23 outing matched Patrick Corbin's total in a 2019 National League Championship Series start for the most by any pitcher under those circumstances since 2001.
Based upon the way the Dodgers structure their pitching staff, they are one of the few teams that can legitimately support such a plan -- if that's what they want. Consider that, in 2020, the Dodgers had a starting pitcher work on four-or-fewer days of rest in just 12 of 60 regular-season games. That was the second-lowest number in the majors, behind only the Seattle Mariners, who had a six-man rotation and only one short-rest situation instance all year. Six of those 12 starts for the Dodgers were using pitchers who were considered to be "openers," relievers tasked with pitching only the first one or two innings of the game. The team routinely dropped in a sixth starter to provide its other rotation members some extra rest.
Now, let's not get carried away here. Even a team as equipped to satisfy Bauer's request as the Dodgers is unlikely to do so. It's more probable that he'll slot into their rotation and work only as frequently as his rotation mates, but considering the personnel on the Dodgers' roster, there are plenty of reasons to believe they'll try to squeeze a little extra out of him. After all, Clayton Kershaw hasn't made more than 28 starts in any season since 2015, and he has also made at least one trip to the injured list in every year since. David Price opted out of the 2020 season and is now 35 years old. Walker Buehler has only once in his career exceeded 153 1/3 innings and never surpassed 182 1/3. Plus, he dealt with blisters late in the 2020 regular season. Julio Urias has never exceeded 88 innings, including the postseason, in any professional year. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are both largely unproven at the big-league level.
Keeping all of that in mind, I anticipate the Dodgers will give Bauer as much leeway as anyone on their staff, probably granting him 200-plus innings (health-willing), while also providing him with a good amount of bullpen support. Whether that results in his pitching every fourth, fifth or sixth day, he'll probably give you the same elite numbers over the full 162-game schedule. The only quibble would be that, if he indeed regularly starts on three days' rest, he might not always pitch deep enough into his starts to capture wins or record quality starts. Tuck that thought away, just in case it winds up as the actual plan and your league relies heavily upon either of those categories for its scoring.
Bauer's contract also assures that he's going to remain as focused on repeating his 2020 as possible. It's a three-year, $102 million deal that includes opt-out clauses after both 2021 and 2022, meaning he could only help his free-agent stock with another elite performance. Throw in the fact that Dodger Stadium is one of the better pitching environments in the game, and Bauer is in good shape to put forth another top-10 fantasy SP season.
I was one of the more pro-Bauer analysts while awaiting his free-agent decision, slotting him in at No. 4 in my SP rankings. Following his agreement with the Dodgers, I'm keeping him right there, but with much, much more confidence in him being the guy who belongs right after the Gerrit Cole/Jacob deGrom/Shane Bieber trio in Tier 1. Bauer, frankly, belongs right on the heels of Bieber in the rankings.