It took 94 days into the offseason for the National League Central to see its first big-name player acquisitions, and the latest -- Joc Pederson signing with the Chicago Cubs being the first, earlier in the day -- is a doozy: The St. Louis Cardinals agreed late Friday night to acquire four-time defending NL Platinum Glove winner and five-time All-Star Nolan Arenado from the Colorado Rockies.
As we await word of the Rockies' return -- left-handed swingman Austin Gomber is reportedly expected to be included in the trade, almost entirely erasing what limited fantasy value he had -- let's get to the impact on Arenado. Fantasy managers' snap judgment on the departure of a Rockies hitter from Coors typically leans towards "catastrophe," and for a player with Arenado's reputation and career accomplishments, there'll probably be an initial rush to panic. There's a danger in exaggerating the pitfalls of his leaving Coors, and a point at which he'd become a draft-day steal.
Consider this: In the 66 NFBC drafts that have taken place between the start of the new year and Jan. 28, or before the trade (though a prospective trade was certainly something with which drafters were aware), Arenado's average draft position ranked 30th, which would be seven spots beneath his lowest Player Rater finish in any of his five seasons preceding his disappointing 2020 (2018, 23rd overall). It's also 11 spots beneath his lowest final ranking in terms of fantasy points scored in any of those five seasons (2018, 19th-tied), and be aware that it's generally much easier for starting pitchers to accrue points and dominate that leaderboard.
The extent to which fantasy managers were downgrading Arenado in early drafts due to the elevated prospects of a trade versus his performance in 2020 is unknown, but it's a valid argument that he was already trending towards bargain status. Skills-wise, his contact quality did decline in 2020, though it's as likely that a shoulder injury that began getting public mention around midseason adversely influenced his numbers than did his approaching 30th birthday. Arenado's first three weeks were well within reasonable margins of his recent past, which is at least encouraging.
Now, the part that's the "doozy": Leaving Coors is never a good thing for a hitter, and Arenado's departure is an unprecedented one (although in large part because he leaves while in the middle of a huge contract).
I can find just three examples of a Rockies hitter having amassed at least 3.0 wins above replacement solely on offense in a season, who were traded or left via free agency before their 30th birthdays within two years of said 3-oWAR year: Matt Holliday (2008-09 offseason), Dexter Fowler (2013-14 offseason) and Corey Dickerson (2015-16 offsesason). Fowler is a poor comparison, being more of a walks/line-drives/speed player, and Dickerson was only three years into his career at the time of his trade.
Holliday, while a precariously small one-man sample size, is a decent comparison: He registered a .329-32-113, 16-steal, 115-run three-year average leading into the offseason of his trade to the Oakland Athletics, which happened at a point he was just nine months younger than Arenado is today. Arenado's prorated three-year average is .299-37-107, 2 steals and 97 runs. Holliday, though, was a bit more line-drive and less fly-ball oriented, with his fly-ball rate roughly 8% lower than Arenado's during that three-year span.
Holliday, who ultimately ended up in St. Louis himself via trade eight months later, had a very good first post-Coors year (.313-24-109, 14, 94) and averaged .308-25-96, 8, 91 numbers in his first three seasons after the initial trade. Generally speaking, hitters who have left Coors have taken some time to adapt to play at lower altitudes, especially within the first year -- see Dickerson for a compelling example -- but Holliday's is a strong, positive reference for what can and could happen to a star who leaves. He's the reminder that this isn't all bad for Arenado in fantasy.
Baseball Reference's neutralized stats indicate a clear statistical drop-off, but not a cliff plunge: .271-31-86, 2, 77, three-year averages if 2018-20 had been played at St. Louis' Busch Stadium. Perhaps those are reasonable expectations for Arenado in 2021, during which he'll turn 30 years old in April.
Ultimately, the trade solves one of my most difficult rankings decisions of the offseason: I have waffled between Arenado, Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers and Anthony Rendon as my Nos. 3-6 third basemen, probably slotting each one in each of the four spots at some point during my offseason research process, and at the time of the trade they all resided within 10 overall rankings spots within one another, all within my top 30. Arenado's trade drops him to the back of that group, my No. 6 third baseman and to No. 33 overall, between Ozzie Albies and Luis Robert.
For now, as we await the word of Colorado's return, Arenado's departure opens up a projected 600-plus plate appearances in their infield. Shifting Ryan McMahon over to third base seems like the most logical initial strategy, freeing up second base to prospect Brendan Rodgers or speedy Garrett Hampson, although the team could also consider Josh Fuentes or perhaps even Ian Desmond in a pinch. It's good news for Rodgers, whose young career has been sidetracked due to injuries, as well as Hampson, who can't make use of his speed without a larger number of starts. Neither will move up more than a few notches in my rankings -- and McMahon won't at all, since he'll probably play about as often as he would have -- but as spring training approaches and roles crystallize, they'll warrant watching and/or adjusting upward.