Baseball cautiously gathers its players this week for an unprecedented three-week version of summer camp (formerly known as spring training) as it aims to prepare for its truncated 2020 season. Most fantasy managers remain perplexed as to how to view it all and how to adjust. This is understandable, frankly. All of this is new, as global sport tries to play through a pandemic, with plenty of skepticism that it can actually succeed.
Headlines scream about several brave players having already announced their intention to sit out this baseball season. While we commend Ryan Zimmerman and Joe Ross of the Washington Nationals, Mike Leake of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Ian Desmond of the Colorado Rockies -- especially Desmond, for his heartfelt announcement -- the proverbial bunk will hit the fantasy fan if or when an actual "statistical difference-maker" follows suit. Nothing against these fine fellows, but none of them made my top-300 rankings.
Still, any player opting to sit out the season is, of course, a rather large deal and does bring playing time ramifications for others -- and we will follow that here at ESPN Fantasy. However, this is not a column just about Rockies OF Sam Hilliard perhaps getting an opportunity to see regular playing time. There are other things to watch for in the next fortnight, including things that typically do not make the headlines. Here are just a few of them.
Pitching arrangements
Managers might be loath to acknowledge in-season plans in the early days of summer camp, but how organizations attack filling their innings, as noted by colleague Todd Zola, is a rather big deal. Some teams could opt to keep their established starters on innings limits or pitch counts for several rotation turns, and fewer innings and pitches means fewer strikeouts and longshots for victories. Regular hitters would be eminently safer and better investments.
This is why New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole (and every other starting pitcher) suddenly plummets in my rankings, at least until there is clarity. Perhaps the top names avoid this fate, but "tandem pitching" figures to be all the rage in July games and into perhaps mid-August, so let us see what teams actually do. Which pitchers win coveted rotation spots is also important, especially for deeper fantasy formats or split-leagues, and we will not have the advantage of seeing usage in meaningless games this time around. In a typical March, we would.
Injuries abound
It remains an unfortunate guessing game as to which players end up contracting the virus, so my best advice is to avoid guesswork. We hardly mean to trivialize the potential impact on actual human beings, but for fantasy purposes, perhaps one should view this as you would any other injury. Individual players react to injuries differently, with some hamstring pulls costing minimal time and others lingering for months. I suspect this will be the same with the virus, as some players may recover quicker than others.
Still, the rate of typical baseball injuries figures to rise in the coming weeks because of the truncated nature of the proceedings. Not everyone penciled into a rotation or lineup has kept their proverbial temples in impeccable condition or eaten the proper foods, you know. We worry most about hard-throwing pitchers and their valuable elbows and shoulders, but hitters figure to see an uptick in soft tissue injuries as well -- and missing a few weeks in a 60-game schedule is a very big deal.
As for players who were injured way back when in March, well, one assumes Justin Verlander, Mike Clevinger and the entire Yankees outfield is ready to go today. My take on brittle players like Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton -- and don't debate me on the adjective I just used -- is that they are more likely in a shortened season to reinjure themselves rather than to suddenly discover durability. Be reactive in fantasy, and keep up to date with the news as it routinely comes in to change things.
Baby boom
Most of the time, fantasy managers gloss over the news regarding which players' wives are due to have babies. After all, over a six-month season and 162 games, a short paternity list stint is no big deal. I would argue the same thing applies now, even as more news leaks. Yes, early congrats to Los Angeles Angels star Mike Trout for a pending family addition, but avoiding him on draft day because he may be more likely to play only 56 games than 60 is something I personally won't do. This kind of information is more for daily leagues.
Roster movement
While most teams will funnel their top prospects to the newly created 60-man roster, that hardly means there's any real intention for them to participate in regular-season baseball games. There is an initial 30-man active roster, which shortens after two weeks of the season and ultimately drops to 26 players after one month. Tampa Bay Rays prospect Wander Franco -- a true difference-maker already at age 19 -- is on the 60-man roster but not yet a member of the active roster, so be careful not to misinterpret the organization's intention. He could, however, graduate to immediate relevance at the drop of a hat.
In a normal season, organizations manipulate the time clock of young players for future value, as we famously saw years ago with the Chicago Cubs and Kris Bryant. Last season the San Diego Padres went against conventional wisdom to promote shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. They can worry about the extra year of team control later. It will be interesting to see how teams handle this service-time arrangement.
Rumors abound that, in this truncated season, teams will keep top prospects such as Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Nate Pearson and St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Dylan Carlson off the active roster for up to two weeks in order to maintain control of these player for an extra year later. My take: Do not avoid someone like Padres LHP MacKenzie Gore if the organization announces he will miss the early roster. That could change shortly. In addition, some organizations might avoid promoting prospects at all, as the Baltimore Orioles tipped their hand in leaving Ryan Mountcastle off their initial 60-man roster. At least in his case we know the deal.
Designating the hitter
While the universal DH absolutely plays a role in fantasy because it creates opportunity for plate appearances and removes the inherent imbalance between NL and AL pitchers, be careful not to overthink things. Sure, if a team announces that a certain player is likely to see extra playing time because of this change, as is the case with New York Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, they hardly become must-haves right away. Again, there is no lock that Cespedes, even without an outfield glove, stays healthy. Some managers will report a revolving committee of DH options, keeping us guessing. However, when we have clarity, it can matter.
Filling your pitching staff
Knowing how pitching could be treated over the first month of the season, I am far more likely to invest in reliable middle relievers with clear roles than to speculate on No. 5 starters. We should see and hear of some semblance of role clarity in the coming weeks. Padres LHP Drew Pomeranz, for example, seems unlikely to either start or close games. That might make him easy to bypass in a typical fantasy campaign, but if San Diego employs him in a long-relief role and he can rack up wins and whiffs, well, then he might matter quite a bit.
Other opt-outs
As for some early repercussions from players opting out of the season (as of this writing), the Nationals should have been looking at intriguing right-hander Austin Voth as potentially replacing Ross as it was, with right-hander Erick Fedde also looming. Zimmerman is more of a platoon bat versus lefties at this point, so perhaps Eric Thames sees more playing time at the expense of batting average. Leake, a known innings eater with a home run problem sans upside in any fantasy category, turns his No. 5 rotation spot over to Merrill Kelly, or perhaps lefty Alex Young.
Desmond stopped hitting right-handed pitching well enough to deserve a regular role years ago, and last season he stole only three bases in six attempts. From a fantasy aspect, fantasy teams will not crumble from his absence. While Hilliard, speedy Garrett Hampson and perhaps even former fantasy superstar Matt Kemp (who unbelievably just signed a minor league deal on Tuesday) are all more interesting fill-in names than they should be due to the lure of home games at elevated Coors Field, watch out for prospect Brendan Rodgers. If healthy, he is the dreamy upside option for fantasy. Then again, the actual signing of Kemp reminds us how the Rockies typically behave. Hint: it's not good for prospects.
Your league(s)
Finally -- and I cannot stress this enough, whether you run your fantasy leagues or simply participate -- keep a much closer eye than normal on what people are saying and feeling in your leagues. Communication is key. Clarify all league rules well in advance of the new Opening Day, be it style of play, roster size, deadlines, playoff or fees. Beyond that, though, be understanding to those who might not want to participate at all. Tensions are high for myriad people outside of baseball reasons, and one never knows for sure how another person or family is handling things. Have some empathy. Be open-minded. Offer your trades, sure, but realize that not everyone might be interested.