Integral to every fantasy baseball draft plan is the manner in which to approach pitching. This holds true in a 60-game campaign, although there are additional considerations. Here are three primary differences from the standard 162-game schedule, followed by suggestions on how to navigate through them in specific leagues.
New paradigm: Target American League pitching
My colleague Tristan H. Cockcroft recently discussed the fantasy impact of the DH coming to the NL. There's also a significant effect on the pitching side of the ledger. National League hurlers no longer get to face their positional counterparts.
Here are the respective slash lines for NL pitchers and AL designated hitters over the past three seasons:
The added production from that lineup spot has resulted in AL teams averaging 4.71 runs per game over the previous three years, compared to 4.58 for the Senior Circuit over that span. The question is how many more runs with the NL score without having to send pitchers to the dish?
To help frame the analysis, here's a three-year comparison of AL lineups replacing the pitcher at bats with those from the average designated hitter and NL lineups doing the same, using AL designated hitter numbers:
From a practical perspective, these are plausible proxies for how each league's overall numbers will look this season, assuming the added production in the NL is like that of recent AL designated hitter. Keep in mind, many NL designated hitters would have played every day in the field regardless, so the added production also comes from the batters backfilling those positions.
An example is Marcell Ozuna. The Atlanta Braves would have played Ozuna in the outfield, but now Austin Riley, Johan Camargo and perhaps Ender Inciarte pick up extra games in the field. It's the production of this trio getting added to the Braves lineup, in lieu of pitchers at the dish.
Even if the added oomph to NL lineups doesn't quite match AL designated hitters, there's a good chance run scoring in the NL exceeds that in the junior circuit. This needs to be accounted for in NL pitching projections.
It's not just runs, but NL hurlers should walk more while fanning fewer, surrendering more homers and hits along the way.
Here's a look at pitchers' skills over the past three seasons:
Compare to how they project with the universal designated hitter:
The script is flipped as AL pitchers project to exhibit slightly better skills than their NL brethren. Please realize the above analysis isn't perfect. NL pitchers work around hitters at the bottom of the order, issuing more intentional walks, skewing some of the skills numbers. In addition, increased run scoring on the NL leads to more lineup turnover, availing more chances. It's unclear whether these will go to hitters at the top of bottom of the order, but the bottom line is run scoring should increase even a little more than the analysis here demonstrates.
Even with the inefficiencies, there's ample information to adjust each pitcher's basal skills to reflect the changing landscape. In fact, the most recent ESPN pitcher projections do just that. Below is the number of AL starting pitchers using standard ESPN scoring in each tier using the projections prior to the universal designated hitter and the current set.
The shift is substantial as there are more AL starting pitchers in each subset with 57% of the top 90 residing in the AL. Here's the corresponding data for standard rotisserie league scoring.
The repositioning is even more alarming in rotisserie scoring with 59% of the top 90 landing on the AL side.
There's still a missing element as the park factors for each team have not been updated as the schedules are still unavailable. It's reported teams will face their own division 10 times as well as six tilts against their interleague rival. That leaves 14 interleague games against the other four teams in the geographically similar division.
When the schedules are made public, the appropriate modifications will be incorporated with those individuals most affected lined up to be featured in a future column. In the meantime, it's necessary to get over the mental stigma of favoring NL over AL pitchers.
Pitcher workloads
With wins integral to both points and rotisserie scoring, there is a lot of interest around club's plans with respect to length of outings, particularly early. This is compounded by the majority of spring training consisting of workouts and intersquad scrimmages as opposed to exhibition games. At most, teams will be permitted three contests against an opposing team with some clubs opting for none. Sure, pitchers can get work in, but few will be fully ready for the rigors of regular-season competition.
The Braves have already stated they'll be conservative with starters' workloads early. Perhaps this doesn't apply to Mike Soroka, but it's unclear until the season begins. It makes sense to slowly ramp up Cole Hamels, Sean Newcomb and even Felix Hernandez as all have dealt with injury issues. Mike Foltynewicz has been durable, but as one of the few individuals exhibiting sustained health following surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome, it makes sense to slow play his early outings.
More teams are expected to follow suit. Clubs with young arms or those who recently recovered from injuries are strong candidates to temper early workloads.
The Los Angeles Angels are an example with Shohei Ohtani, Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning and Felix Pena all having health concerns. Angels hurlers are an attractive fantasy commodity as their home field is an excellent place to pitch, and aside from the chance of traveling to Colorado, the venues in the NL West are all pitcher-friendly.
Perhaps an even better illustration is the Oakland Athletics with Sean Manaea, Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk slated to fill key roles in a rotation with playoff aspirations. This makes swingman Chris Bassitt an attractive late target as he'll likely pick up some starts, spelling the promising youthful arms. Like their division-mates, the A's have the potential to enjoy a favorable pitching schedule.
Two-start options
There's been a marked change since the beginning of 2018 as MLB extended the regular season three days, with the extra off days reducing the number of two-start possibilities in weekly leagues. With 60 games on the docket in just 66 days, the number of two-start options increases significantly.
By the numbers, in a nine-week schedule with six off days, each team has 12 two-start opportunities, for a total of 360. In a typical 66 day stretch of the 2019 season, there were seven off days, reducing the chances for a pair of starts to 330 as each team gets 11.
Muddying the waters is the probability that teams deploy a six-man rotation or the opener/primary pitcher combination. Still, look for an increase, percentage-wise, of two-start guys in weekly leagues.
Drafting starting pitching in 2020
The adaptation of the universal designated hitter merely adjusts relative ranks. The likelihood starters garner fewer wins, especially early along with the opportunity to stream in more two-start candidates influences strategies. That said, there isn't a one-size-fits-all approach. As always, it's league-dependent while also factoring in personal strengths and weaknesses as a drafter.
This is admittedly subjective narrative, but the tempering of innings may not apply to the upper echelon of starters. Stars like Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, if the latter two are healthy, shouldn't be under any restrictions, at least after their initial start. While their individual numbers won't be better, relative to the field, the extent of their contributions are greater. As such, it's worth pondering grabbing a stud early, adding Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, Mike Clevinger, Shane Bieber, Lucas Giolito, Charlie Morton and Stephen Strasburg to the mix. Even Zack Greinke is intriguing since he won't need much ramp-up time, as he excels via guile and not as much via stuff.
It's the middle portion of a fantasy rotation requiring the most pontification. These are largely the candidates to work fewer than five frames for up to half the season, stripping the ability to capture a win. Not to mention, fewer innings reduces strikeouts and the positive benefit of solid ratios. There are some options like Eduardo Rodriguez, Matthew Boyd, Brandon Woodruff, Mike Minor and Lance Lynn, but once you're looking at your fourth, fifth and sixth starters, it could be more beneficial to pivot to arms such as Chris Bassitt, Ross Stripling, Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough. The idea being they're all candidates to start, but if they don't, they'll come in before the fifth inning with a chance to vulture victories.
If there was ever a season to treat the back end of a fantasy rotation as fungible, this is it. As explained, there could be extra two-start options for fantasy managers adept at playing the matchup game as well as teams getting creative with their approach, availing intriguing possibilities, especially in daily leagues. Pardon the gratuitous plug but look for the Daily Notes to return with the usual focus on under-the-radar mound options.
Putting it all together with the ubiquitous reminder everything is in context with your league format and drafting skills, focusing on a solid pitching foundation early, hammering away at durable hitters virtually assured of playing time while churning the lower end of the pitching staff has the feel of a winning strategy. This season promises surprises and a lot of variance. One way to combat it is a strong pitching base followed by volume with respect to hitting. Finally, embrace the variance at the end, steering into the unpredictability and small sample stars by playing matchups and being willing to turn over the bottom portion of your roster several times.