Earlier this week I talked about all the best hitter values and how fantasy players are prone to overhyping young players like Luis Robert and Fernando Tatis Jr. (If I wasn't clear then: I'll pass so, so hard on these guys.) Drafting players like these usually involves horrible process, but for some reason the average draft positions of their pitcher counterparts don't get overinflated in the same way. In fact, some of the absolute best values on the pitching side this year are the kinds of sexy rookies that everyone wants to roster. So if you're being smart about things, take your upside shots on these young arms, pass on the Robert types and then fill in your rotation with the same kinds of boring or overlooked values you're also getting on the hitting side.
Methodology: I've selected a dozen pitchers that my projection system, THE BAT, ranks higher than where they are being drafted in NFBC formats. They aren't listed in any particular order. I simply chose players I thought were interesting to write about and that spanned a wide range of ADPs and reasons for being undervalued. There are plenty of other values out there, and I listed a few more players you should be looking at near the bottom of this article. Keep in mind that every league is different, and any player can be snatched off the table at any time, but these are the pitchers you can reasonably expect to get strong value from based on where they are being selected on average.
Lance McCullers, SP, Houston Astros
THE BAT SP Rank: 23
NFBC SP ADP Rank: 52
McCullers is the ace nobody knows is an ace and the guy THE BAT identifies as the best pitcher value in 2020 drafts. There's always uncertainty coming off a serious surgery like Tommy John, and he seems likely to be limited to 120-ish innings, but man, if he's anything like the pitcher he was pre-surgery, they will be 120 amazing innings. His curveball is the best in baseball, featuring elite velocity, hidden/tunneled so well inside his fastball, worked down in the zone where this type of curve thrives. And he throws it close to half the time. He gets strikeouts and ground balls. He pitches in a pitchers' park in a division of pitchers' parks. He'll get elite offensive support. We may have to wait until 2021 to get Cy Young-caliber McCullers, but I'm expecting big things in 2020 as well.
Jesus Luzardo, SP, Oakland A's
THE BAT SP Rank: 20
NFBC SP ADP Rank: 33
Rookies are almost always drafted too high due to hype. Occasionally, the hype isn't big enough. Luzardo reminds me so much of Chris Paddack last year, who even after getting a ton of helium throughout spring training still wound up being drafted too low in many leagues. Luzardo is the premier rookie arm this year, with great stuff, great minor league numbers and great projections across all systems, but none more favorable than THE BAT. He projects for a top-20 ERA among all MLB starting pitchers. Buy the hype, and then buy some more, and then also buy the hype on his teammate ...
A.J. Puk, SP, Oakland A's
THE BAT SP Rank: 40
NFBC SP ADP Rank: 60
THE BAT is also the high projection system on Puk, and it's easy for me to see why: The dude is good. Like McCullers, there are absolutely concerns coming off injury, with an additional injury this spring that could delay his season. But there was no structural damage found, and this is a pitcher with excellent stuff who throws in the mid-to-upper 90s. He struck out at least 11 batters per 9 at every level of the minors. And he (along with Luzardo) will be awarded some excellent context this year. The A's project to have a top-10 defense, a top-10 group of pitch framers and top-10 offensive support. They play at home in Oakland Coliseum, in a division of pitchers' parks, with an interleague play matchup with the NL East, another division of mostly pitchers' parks. Looking over their entire 162-game schedule, only two teams (the Marlins and Mets) have a more favorable group of parks they'll be playing in. I'll take the injury risk somewhere in rounds 15-20 for the chance at a breakout.
Marcus Stroman, SP, New York Mets
THE BAT SP Rank: 53
NFBC SP ADP Rank: 60
As much as I love guys like McCullers and Puk, you probably can't get through a season with all guys who are going to give you only 120 innings. You need some undervalued innings eaters, and that's where a guy like Stroman comes in. He was terrific after joining the Mets last year, so it's odd to see him go overlooked. I'm chalking it up to him being a boring, low-strikeout veteran, but who cares? He's a good pitcher who will get more K's than people realize given the move from the AL to the NL (no DH) and the move from a hitters' park in the Rogers Centre to the best pitchers' park in baseball (Citi Field), not to mention that great park schedule, facing the AL West in interleague play. His K/9, while likely unsustainable, was over 9.0 in New York. He'll give you secure innings with great ratios and some sneaky strikeout upside at a bargain price.
Charlie Morton, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
THE BAT SP Rank: 11
NFBC SP ADP Rank: 19
Morton is a stud, and the only knock against him is that little number people see next to "Age" on his player card. He's 36, and people worry about his ability to hold up and for his skills not to drop off. I don't care about that. Any good projection will take age into account, and the likelihood of him taking a severe drop is just not high enough to justify his low ADP. He revamped his arsenal when he was with the Astros and went as far as to throw over 50% breaking balls and off-speed pitches last year with the Rays. He'll pitch in the Trop with great offensive support. If you miss out on an ace, Morton is an excellent consolation prize that you'll get a round or two later than he belongs.
Chris Sale, SP, Boston Red Sox
Sale's injury prognosis is potentially scary. It's not inconceivable this guy doesn't pitch at all in 2020. But Ken Rosenthal reported that the team doesn't expect him to need Tommy John, which means you could also get him back in May. We'll know more in a few days, but for drafts that are happening now, I wouldn't be opposed to buying on the panic. He's roughly SP40 in NFBC drafts over the last week, but when he's on the mound, he's probably SP4. The ERA was bad last year, but the peripherals remained elite. I have zero talent-level concerns with Sale. He is in the top tier with Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole when he's right, and that kind of upside is worth taking a shot on for those who aren't especially risk averse.
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP, Boston Red Sox
THE BAT SP Rank: 19
NFBC SP ADP Rank: 39
I didn't expect to see E-Rod as a value the way I did for some other guys getting obviously great shifts in context. THE BAT is basically just projecting him to continue doing what he's been doing: an ERA in the high 3s, a K/9 in the low-to-mid-9s. I don't really understand why others aren't valuing him similarly. Maybe it's the notion that Boston will be a lot worse this year. And to be fair, they will, but not enough to knock him back so far. Whatever the reason, there's value here.
Andrew Heaney, SP, Los Angeles Angels
THE BAT SP Rank: 25
NFBC SP ADP Rank: 54
Heaney is in a similar boat as E-Rod. Despite plenty of hype as a prospect, he's never taken the step up into being an ace the way many expected, and he's become almost boring. His ERA was also nearly 5.00 last year despite an 11.1 K/9 and 4.18 xFIP, which could be scaring some off. But Heaney is another year removed from Tommy John surgery, added velocity and strikeouts last year, and will get elite offensive support while getting that elite AL West park schedule. Maybe he never becomes an ace, but he doesn't have to. He's already very good and isn't being treated that way.
Matt Boyd, SP, Detroit Tigers
THE BAT SP Rank: 34
NFBC SP ADP Rank: 44
THE BAT was the high man on Boyd by a lot coming into last year. It thought he was amazing, due in part to the kind of fantastic context it sees for some of the other guys on the list this year, while most others thought he was just a guy. Despite a 4.56 ERA, his K/9 was 11.6 and his xFIP was 3.88. He trailed off toward the end of the year, which, paired with that ugly ERA, is causing him to go underdrafted again in 2020. His lack of a true third pitch is concerning and is the most believable narrative for his rough second half last year, but I still don't really believe it. After all, his K/9 was still over 11. At his ADP, I'm willing to bet on him again.
Jake Odorizzi, SP, Minnesota Twins
THE BAT SP Rank: 42
NFBC SP ADP Rank: 51
Odorizzi is another guy THE BAT loved last year, and that raised some eyebrows, so it makes sense that it's high on him again coming off a stellar season. He's boring, sure, but he's also good. That's all I care about. He won't blow you away, but he'll be a solid value piece to help round out your rotation in the middle rounds.
Nick Anderson, RP, Tampa Bay Ray
THE BAT RP Rank: 10
NFBC RP ADP Rank: 19
Projecting saves is always a pain, especially when a team hasn't officially named a closer. Odds are it will be Anderson, though, and he has the skills to both keep the job and contribute in the other categories for you. There are only five relievers in all of major league baseball that THE BAT projects for a better context-neutral ERA than Anderson. He throws 96 mph, he struck out 15 (!) batters per 9 last year, and I'd be confident taking him at a discount because he doesn't officially have the job yet.
Keone Kela, RP, Pittsburgh Pirates
THE BAT RP Rank: 16
NFBC RP ADP Rank: 25
Kela is in a similar boat as Anderson in that he hasn't officially been named the closer yet but seems like the clear favorite. He's not as talented, but he's still a very good pitcher. Every year, for whatever reason, a few should-be closers seem to slip through the cracks, and Kela is the guy I'd be targeting this year. He's the last of the should-be closers who are also talented, and there's a pretty big value drop-off after him.
Additional Value Options: James Paxton, Carlos Carrasco, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Dallas Keuchel, Joe Musgrove