It is true that Kansas City Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi is capable of stealing bases like few others and after what we saw from him in 2018, a potential fantasy superstar of the highest magnitude lurks.
Of course, it is also quite possible, if not probable, that Mondesi, for reasons relating not only to his wild approach at the plate but also his questionable health, will look nothing like a superstar in 2020.
Fantasy managers often play the game of risk versus reward in drafts and auctions. When it comes to Mondesi, in whom so many saw potential greatness at this time last season, many of those same folks must question his place on the narrative today. Yes, Mondesi offers ridiculous statistical upside, but if he cannot get on the field and stay on it, and there are concerns about modest power potential, reaching that potential seems problematic. How early will you act in drafts?
If Mondesi were to settle in as a midround selection in drafts, sure, sign me up. No great risk there and we all need the stolen bases. However, that is not happening! Mondesi will go in the first five rounds of most drafts and that is simply too risky. We already worried about his plate discipline affecting his offensive upside and now his return from offseason shoulder surgery is a factor, as it has delayed the start of his spring training. I cannot be alone in arriving at the point I will simply let others deal with this.
Let us review: Mondesi hit a surprising .276 in 2018 with 14 home runs and 32 steals in less than half a season, and extrapolating those figures over the course of six months made fantasy managers go wild. Hey, I admit, I thought a lot of Mondesi this time last season, willing to ignore his over-aggressive plate approach to a degree. The power seemed stunning based on his profile and minor league numbers, but a reasonable output of double-digit homers combined with 50 steals is fascinating enough. It is what we hope/expect from Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, right? Well, Mondesi is clearly not Turner.
I do not think Mondesi comes at enough of a bargain price even now. Mondesi sure can run, but other than that, be careful, for Turner's five-category potential seems outside his potential. Mondesi hit .263 with 9 home runs and 43 steals in 102 games and 443 plate appearances last season, which looks special on a per-game basis, notably for the stolen bases, but one has to wonder just how many games he can play in 2020. The Royals have been cautious with him this spring, and Opening Day seems unlikely for Mondesi. Perhaps they are telling us something.
Every "Do Not Draft" list regardless of sport comes with caveats: Of course, I would want these players on my fantasy teams at the right cost, but often the cost is simply not right. I look at ADP across not only ESPN but also at other sites to determine what a player's general value seems to be, and if it jibes with my opinion. When it comes to flawed hitters or pitchers it often creates difference of opinion, but throw in injury questions and there are red flags galore. We still wait for Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco to return to high-end fantasy relevance after his own labral repair procedure years ago, and Mondesi does not offer that power potential.
As the son of a former player and one who quickly ingratiated himself to fantasy managers, Mondesi seems to get the proverbial value pass in comparison with other young, flawed but certainly exciting players. He has drawn an incomprehensible 30 walks against 209 strikeouts over the past two seasons, and few can overcome such a serious lack of plate discipline. I worry that this potential superstar struggles to hit for average and power and cannot stay on the field consistently. The magical lure of stolen bases has created a faulty draft day price where Mondesi often goes before Zack Greinke, Jose Abreu and Keston Hiura, among myriad others. I must pass.
OK, so Mondesi leads this season's "Do Not Draft" list. Who else makes it? Let us go in order of general ADP.
Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Yankees:
I do not know which of these players deserves to be listed first and that, in itself, is part of the problem. I do know I dropped each of them a long way in the rankings. Judge could be out months, which is not much different from the prior two seasons when he averaged 107 games. Stanton played in 18 games last season. We cannot know when they will play again, or when the next malady sidelines them, but I know it will not be my problem.
Chris Sale, SP, Red Sox:
He seems to have preliminarily escaped imminent Tommy John surgery, but that hardly means he will pitch anytime soon. There is a point in which the cost matches reasonable value for me, but that is no longer in the first half of a standard draft.
Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers:
Love the power, hate the batting average. Oh sure, Gallo hardly hurt the batting average category last season, but did anyone else see that ridiculous .500 BABIP versus left-handed pitching? Another 40-homer campaign seems legitimate, but I worry he hits .220 or worse again. Give me Khris Davis 10 rounds later. Heck, give me Davis five rounds later. If you use an early pick on a player, said player should not hurt so much in any category.
Gary Sanchez, C, Yankees:
Here is another player with major batting average risk, and like seemingly half his team, he is not healthy. Perhaps no other catcher can offer this much power, but Sanchez hit .211 the past two seasons. That is a drag on any fantasy roster. In ESPN leagues, in which one catcher is active, I wait until the very end of the draft. I could have placed J.T. Realmuto and Yasmani Grandal on this list, as per my normal listing of the top catchers -- it used to be Buster Posey -- drafted too generously, but they have not hit .211 the past two seasons.
Luis Robert, OF, White Sox:
Obvious statistical greatness awaits because he is a highly touted rookie capable of loads of home runs and stolen bases! Or he could struggle, like most every rookie. Robert in the top 100 is too risky for me, especially with that lack of plate discipline. Yep, it matters. Javier Baez is special and aberrant when it comes to hitting for a decent batting average while drawing barely a free pass per week, not normal.
Craig Kimbrel, RP, Cubs:
Nobody can foresee this year's Blake Treinen, as in the dominant reliever that suddenly, sans raison, falls apart, and I refuse to assign this tag to Kirby Yates. I still think top closers like Josh Hader and Yates go a wee too early in drafts, but my issue is with some of the second-tier choices. Kimbrel looks terrible in spring games, coming off a half-season in which he looked, well, terrible. His struggles are hardly the same as Edwin Diaz's, for example. Reliever volatility is definitely a thing, but with Kimbrel, perhaps volatility is his new upside.
Carlos Martinez, RP, Cardinals:
Perhaps he starts, perhaps he finishes. You know what perhaps nobody is talking about? The fact that he might not do either of these things effectively enough to warrant attention. I like to have some certainty of role, at least, when I draft.
Joey Votto, 1B, Reds:
He fooled so many of us last year, but now has 27 home runs the past two seasons combined. I see several younger first basemen, drafted later than Votto, capable of approaching that number in 2020 alone.
German Marquez & Jonathan Gray, SP, Rockies:
Marquez and Gray are strikeout starters, but nobody can conquer Coors Field on an annual basis. There is a time and value to securing Rockies starters and utilizing them solely in road contests, I suppose, but it seems to me conditions for this strategy are rarely perfect unless it is a daily format. I will invest in Kyle Hendricks and Kenta Maeda instead. If I miss on the upside, so be it. Oh, and what are you doing drafting Wade Davis?
Yasiel Puig, OF, free agent:
I cannot believe people are still drafting him among the top 50 outfielders or 200 players. The season starts in two weeks! Perhaps an injury opens the door for him finding a desperate team, but then again, perhaps no teams want to deal with this erratic player at any cost. Most fantasy managers who invest in Puig will move on by May. Just draft Danny Santana instead. He might not match his 2019 season, but he is playing every day. Puig is literally not playing at all.
Jo Adell, OF, Angels:
Love his future, but there are no guarantees that his big league future starts in the first half of this season. Again, bench spots, especially in ESPN formats, are valuable, and waiting months for gratification seems like poor use of them, so Adell is just an example. Throw in Dylan Carlson, MacKenzie Gore and just about every prospect not named Luis Robert and Gavin Lux as well. Even Houston's Kyle Tucker is hardly a guarantee for playing time right away. In a dynasty format, however, everything changes with these young players.
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