The St. Louis Cardinals check almost every box when it comes to what fantasy managers should be watching for this spring training. Uncertainty with a starting player or two, as well as with the lineup? You got it. A key injury in the rotation and several battles to decide who starts games in April, plus an established big leaguer who might or might not start? Yep, that's certainly present as well. A hot prospect or two who could win a job and become relevant? Sure! Essentially no current clarity when it comes to the back of the bullpen? Incredible! Relative ambiguity is everywhere for the defending NL Central champions.
Some might view this as a bad thing, but there is ample value to be gleaned from paying close attention not only to what Cardinals manager Mike Shildt says to reporters but what he shows them in his tendencies -- both during the otherwise meaningless spring games and in workouts and usage patterns. While some in the fantasy world might not covet any part of the players with undefined roles as of now (and there are myriad names here, some potentially valuable), I would argue this is exactly where we should look. After all, most top fantasy options have roles set. On the Cardinals, some do not.
Tommy Edman, 2B/3B: Edman went from unheralded minor leaguer to relevant fantasy option in 2019, hitting .304 with double-digit home runs and stolen bases in barely half of a big league season. Few knew who he was, but he decided league titles. As of today, he could be the starting third baseman or left fielder, or neither. Perhaps he plays the Ben Zobrist role of finding at-bats all over the place. That said, we also worry about whether he hits this well again because, frankly, little in his profile told us he would hit like this. He could be a mid-round pick in ESPN standard leagues ... or he could go undrafted.
Matt Carpenter, 3B: Carpenter famously slugged 36 home runs in 2018, with 28 of them coming in just June, July and August. Yeah, he was streaky. So when Carpenter started 2019 slowly, people waited ... and they waited ... and then they waited some more. A healthy, thriving Carpenter is an underrated fantasy option for both roto and points leagues. He has power. He draws walks. He might even lead off! Of course, it could be Dexter Fowler in that role too, or it could be Edman. The spring stats might not matter so much, but what Shildt does with playing time and lineups will.
Dylan Carlson, OF: He's one of the top prospects in the sport and he hit .292 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases across the top minor league levels last season. The fact the Cardinals did not seem eager to bring veteran Marcell Ozuna back offers some hope that Carlson wins the starting left-field job in March. Hey, not all hitting prospects have their contract clocks manipulated by late-spring demotions when they do not deserve it. See Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres for proof. As for Carlson, watch the strikeout totals. Watch how aggressive he is on the basepaths. A star could be born in late March, or in July.
Carlos Martinez, RP: He used to be one of the top 20 starting pitchers in the league, but then his shoulder barked. The Cardinals had starting depth, so he was suddenly closing games. Martinez saved 24 games last season and made nary a start. However, he wants to start, health permitting. The Cardinals may or may not have the services of right-hander Miles Mikolas in April -- his sore flexor tendon may or may not portend major surgery -- but the team already lacked a surefire No. 5 rotation option. It could be Korean import Kwang-Hyun Kim, or Daniel Ponce de Leon, or young left-hander Genesis Cabrera. Things are wide open! Watch how Martinez performs and in what role, plus how health drives his usage. He could start 30 times and win around 15 games, or he could save 30 games, or maybe he won't even matter at all.
Giovanny Gallegos, RP: With hard-throwing Jordan Hicks still on the mend from Tommy John surgery and sure to be stashed by many a fantasy manager (even with no assurances that he will pitch before July or close when he does return), Gallegos figures to get a chance to finish off games. He could close even if Martinez cannot start. Gallegos certainly pitched better than Martinez last season, fanning 11.3 hitters per nine innings and posting a 0.81 WHIP. Even though he was good, there are plenty of options lurking for saves for what is a defending division champion! Could it be John Brebbia, Andrew Miller, Alex Reyes (remember him?), John Gant or even Bruce Sutter? OK, we can rule out one of those names for saves this season.
Look, spring training statistics tend to mean absolutely nothing for fantasy purposes. Last season, for example, Robinson Cano hit .441, while Jung Ho Kang hit the most home runs (seven), followed closely by Matt Adams, Lewis Brinson and Austin Hays. Corbin Burnes, Felix Pena and Sam Gaviglio were among the strikeout leaders and Kyle Freeland, Jeremy Hellickson and Matt Moore each won four games. Pillars of fantasy rosters, these men certainly were not. I watch spring training games because it is sunny and warm where they are and not so much where I am, and I yearn to be where they are. I am a baseball fan first, but most of these statistics simply tell us nothing.
What should you look for in the stats? Well, we need to know what competition the hitters and pitchers face. If Carlson is drilling Class-A pitching, then his numbers are irrelevant. If Martinez fans Class-A hitting, same deal. It is good that potential closers pitch in the fourth and fifth innings, when top hitters remain in lineups. Do not look at March saves leaders, as at least half of those fellows won't make the roster.
For hitters, I want to see (and perhaps I can only do this with my eyes, not by reading stats) who has adjusted their launch angle, who is hitting baseballs hard, who just looks -- or perhaps feels -- different. It is not an exact science. I am also interested in who wants to steal bases in these games. That can matter, as can lineups, as managers try things out. For pitchers, velocity changes matter. Who is throwing harder and perhaps more important, who lost a few clicks on the fastball. Perhaps they are not trying as hard -- Zack Greinke is famous for this, and people still fall for it -- but a velocity drop can also indicate a looming injury. I want to see if the walkers like Reynaldo Lopez and Dakota Hudson stop walking people. Perhaps it means nothing, or perhaps they figured something out.
After that, try not to overthink things too much. If Ty France launches 10 homers this spring, good for him! We know what he did in the minors, but he did not do this in the majors. I cannot imagine it will impact my rankings. Read "manager speak" into potential jobs won, lineup spots and ninth-inning roles. We all want to glean information at every last turn and there is no one place to find it, whether it is in a game or a news conference. We are all watching and listening, just in case.
Everyone loves lists. Here are a few of mine for spring training.
Position battles to watch
Astros RF: Kyle Tucker deserves it, but Dusty Baker has Josh Reddick. ... Athletics 2B: Prospects Franklin Barreto and Sheldon Neuse showed power. ... Braves CF, 3B: Ender Inciarte, Austin Riley boast reasonable upside. ... Mets LF: Yoenis Cespedes wants to matter again, but it is crowded out there. ... Reds CF: The signing of Shogo Akiyama could push Nick Senzel to Triple-A. ... Yankees DH: Miguel Andujar figures to hit/play somewhere.
Closer situations to watch
Braves: Everyone assumes it is Will Smith, but it might be Mark Melancon. ... Cardinals: Martinez, Gallegos or someone else? ... Giants: LHP Tony Watson has experience, if that matters. ... Mariners/Marlins: Even bad teams get some saves. Matt Magill, everyone! ... Rays: Dominant Nick Anderson could be the next Kirby Yates. Now. ... Rockies: Wade Davis cannot be that awful again, right? Right?!?
Lineups to watch
Cardinals: Edman might have to force his way in. ... Cubs: Kris Bryant leading off actually makes sense, but it affects his stats. ... Dodgers: Gavin Lux batting eighth is not good for his numbers. ... Nationals: Trea Turner hitting third would presumably curtail stolen bases. ... Orioles: Do not laugh. Even bad teams score some runs. Hanser Alberto! ... Rangers: Rookie Nick Solak should win a job and could hit high in lineup. ... Red Sox: Andrew Benintendi leading off could be exactly what he needs. ... White Sox: Tim Anderson or Luis Robert leading off is a big deal.
Injuries to watch
Mike Clevinger, Indians: If it is just half of April, then it is not a big deal. ... Cole Hamels, Braves: This late-round pick should not be forgotten. ... Mitch Haniger, Mariners: If he is out for months, he might not be worth stashing. ... Aaron Judge, Yankees: I'm starting to wonder if this fellow is ever 100 percent healthy. ... Craig Kimbrel, Cubs: Clearly not healthy in 2019, he's probably a bit underrated now. ... Adalberto Mondesi, Royals: If his shoulder is not right, be extra cautious here. ... Andrew McCutchen, Phillies: His slated return from knee injury is for early April. ... Shohei Ohtani, Angels: When will he pitch? Will he hit regularly? ... Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres: Back injuries can be especially scary.
Comebacks being overlooked
Jesus Aguilar, Rays: His 2018 season can be replicated. ... Yoenis Cespedes, Mets: It's easy to be skeptical, but the power is legit. ... Khris Davis, Athletics: When healthy, his power is among the best. ... Michael Kopech, White Sox: Hard thrower returns from TJ surgery. ... Tommy La Stella, Angels: All that power came in merely half a season.
Prospects that could win jobs
Jo Adell, Angels: Right field sure looks open and he fills fantasy stats. ... Alec Bohm, Phillies: Power bat could push Scott Kingery to CF. ... Dylan Carlson, Cardinals: Power, speed, potential opportunity. ... Wander Franco, Rays: Just a teenager, but never say never. ... Carter Kieboom, Nationals: Asdrubal Cabrera could be a bench option. ... Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles: He's not a patient hitter, but power and opportunity exist. ... Brendan Rodgers, Rockies: He seems to deserve a second chance.