I have nothing against Luis Robert, Gavin Lux, Jo Adell or any other top prospect on the verge of blossoming onto the big league baseball scene in 2020. Perhaps it is simply assumed they will be fine, but Minnesota Twins designated hitter Nelson Cruz actually hit 41 home runs in 2019. OK, everyone homered a lot, but Cruz also hit .311 with a career-best 1.031 OPS (fourth in baseball). Yet there is no shortage of high-profile young hitters going ahead of Cruz in most drafts (Gleyber Torres and Yoan Moncada among them), all of whom he bested on the final 2019 Player Rater.
Go ahead, ignore Cruz because he'll be blowing out 40 candles on his cake this summer. He is old enough to be the father of some of these myriad young hitters that so many fantasy managers will be counting on in 2020. Pass him by because he is eligible solely at DH, or because of the silly, age-old fantasy proverb that "we should avoid rostering certain older players one year before they fall apart, as opposed to in the year they finally do," as if it is so easy to predict that very clear outcome. Sure, keep doubting Nelson Cruz. Go ahead. More for me! And stay off my lawn!
Look, analyzing players and trying to project future performance is what we do, and yes, if there was some reason for concern about Cruz other than his age, I would tell you. I can tell you I saw a significant drop-off in my ability to hit fastballs in my age-40 seas ... nope, I can't even finish that sentence. Sure, Cruz is old for a baseball player. He also has blasted more home runs (244) than anyone else over the past six seasons. Mike Trout has 223 in that span. Cruz has also hit .285 in that span, averaging 148 games played per season. He hit 37 home runs in his worst season. That was 2018. You think he is hitting the proverbial wall now, in 2020? What tells you that?
We used to do this year after year with Boston Red Sox great David Ortiz, a DH-only player who continued to slug into his late 30s, yet was somehow shunned in the top 50 of drafts -- despite numbers that certainly warranted his selection. Cruz has been this player for, oh ... the past six seasons. Yes, there is some modest disadvantage to filling your DH or utility spot early, as it removes some degree of versatility later on, but if that means I am merely filling that spot with Brandon Belt, then give me Cruz in Round 7. C'mon. We are trying to build monster offenses and Cruz remains a monster player. Sure, perhaps this year it all falls apart, even though he finished among the top 50 players on the 2019 Rater despite stealing nary a base. That's how good he was in the other four categories!
Enough and yeah, I do blog about this topic every season to little avail. Nelson Cruz is still underrated and I am not sure what more he needs to prove. When it all falls apart, feel free to let me how I was wrong about him -- but I doubt it happens in 2020. The Twins are loaded offensively and Cruz gets to bash in the middle of it. I will not guarantee you 140 games, but Cruz did all that hefty damage in 2019 in a mere 120 games. Great, take less time to hit those 40-plus homers and I'll get a month to use that lineup spot on someone else, too. In that sense, Cruz is like an older Aaron Judge. Who do you think plays more games in 2020? Who hits more homers? You have to think about it, right?
Here are a few others who seem to be seeing a major discount in drafts simply because they remember the '80s. It's not something anybody can control, but age tends to get overrated.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Chicago White Sox: There are a few differences between Encarnacion and Cruz. For one, Cruz is not the one who qualified at first base last season, a modest perk. Two, Cruz is not the one who has hit 32-plus home runs for an amazing eight consecutive seasons, which could lead to some wondering why Encarnacion, 37 years old, is not valued more. Well, he is a career .263 hitter who last topped that seemingly easy-to-reach mark in 2015. Cruz is worth more in fantasy baseball. However, the fact that Encarnacion is going 10 rounds later or something ridiculous like that is awesome value.
Max Scherzer, SP, Washington Nationals: Four out of the top 10 starting pitchers on last season's Player Rater are 35 or older, but I really don't hear any age-bias discussion when it comes to Houston's Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke, or Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton. It's probably because they sailed past 200 innings last season (or, in Morton's case, got close), while Scherzer served a pair of IL stints. Injuries and old age often go together, you know. Now Scherzer is too old? I do have some mild concerns about Scherzer again failing to reach 200 innings, but it's not because he is 35. If he slips outside of Round 2, he's a bargain.
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Philadelphia Phillies: Again, I doubt people would view McCutchen as being old -- he is only 33 -- if he were not coming off an ACL injury. It is possible that McCutchen, who tore his knee last June, will not quite be ready for Opening Day and perhaps his days with double-digit stolen bases are long gone. Still, he was having a nice season before the injury. McCutchen scored 45 runs in 59 games -- a cool pace for more than 120 of them had he remained on the field. He would have sailed past 20 home runs, too. Try to view this former fantasy great as a potential top-20 outfielder again.
Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers and Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Texas Rangers: They're very different veterans, of course, and they are 36 and 37, respectively. They're also two of only 15 outfielders to hit more than 20 home runs and steal 11 or more bases. Yep, just 15 of them. OK, so perhaps that is not Trout-like, but I think one can procure Braun and Choo after Round 20 in their roto drafts. Choo remains a points-league star thanks to the walk total. One does not build a fantasy team around guys like this, but as fourth or fifth outfielders, one could do worse -- especially while others chase prospects who might not show up at all.
Yadier Molina, C, St. Louis Cardinals: Some might joke that I will still be recommending Molina years after he finally retires. Well, he has yet to retire, and I find it difficult to bet against him. Molina, 37, battled a thumb injury last season and I admit I expect neither a .300 batting average nor 20 home runs. That said, I could not find 10 better fantasy backstops for my rankings this season. Perhaps youngsters such as Danny Jansen, Sean Murphy and Francisco Mejia sail past him in ultimate 2020 value, but there is a bit of wishful thinking going on there, too.