When fantasy players prepare for their drafts, they often start by trying to identify which 2019 breakouts are for real (Fernando Tatis!) and which young players are ready to take the next step forward (Luis Robert!). Ummm, yeah... it's a hard pass from me on both of them.
Gambling on upside is fine, and in certain formats it's necessary in order to win, but in your standard home league with your buddies, let the guy across the table from you waste his fourth-round pick on the dude who hit zero home runs in 2018 and has never shown good plate discipline (that would be Luis Robert, by the way).
Instead, shift your focus to finding value. Because at the end of the day, it doesn't matter where your stats come from. It just matters that you get more than your friends. The good news is that your friends (and the market in general) systematically undervalue certain players, and I'm here to highlight who those players (and player types) are.
Even if you want to take a couple of shots on finding the next big thing, building a strong core around that upside is the surest way to a championship.
Methodology: I've selected a dozen hitters that my projection system, THE BAT, ranks higher than where they are being drafted in NFBC formats. They aren't listed in any particular order. I simply chose players I thought were interesting to write about and that spanned a wide range of positions, ADPs, league depths (not every player is appropriate for all leagues -- don't go trying to make Evan Longoria your starting 3B in an eight-team league), and reasons for being undervalued. There are plenty of other values out there, and I listed a dozen or so more additional players you should be looking at near the bottom of this article. Keep in mind that every league is different, and any player can be snatched off the table at any time, but these are the hitters who you can reasonably expect to get strong value on based on where they are being selected on average.
Evan Longoria, 3B, San Francisco Giants
THE BAT Hitter Rank: 173
NFBC Hitter ADP Rank: 235
There's no surer way to score free value in a fantasy draft than by taking older, boring, but still-somewhat-talented players. Few fit that mold better this year than Longo. He's 34, plays for the Giants, and doesn't stand out in any one category, but he's still a league-average hitter, he still hits in the middle of the lineup, he still has some power, and the fences being moved in will help a bit further. It's fine to speculate on upside with a few picks, but locking in free, boring value is the easiest way to launch yourself ahead of the pack when you do happen to hit on some of your gambles.
Eric Thames, 1B, Washington Nationals
THE BAT Hitter Rank: 149
NFBC Hitter ADP Rank: 232
"Thames is going to a worse park and won't play every day, why would I want him on my team?" I can only assume this is the logic most are using, but while Miller Park is elite for home runs, it's actually neutral overall, while Nationals Park is a top-five hitters' park in baseball -- the sneakiest elite hitters' park in the game. This is an upgrade, folks. And while he's comparably talented to Ryan Zimmerman, Zim is constantly hurt and would be on the weak side if a platoon situation were to develop. Howie Kendrick could be a threat, but the Nats aren't seeming to consider him much at first. Thames is a worthy starting CI that you can steal 100-plus picks into the reserve rounds of a 15-team draft.
Starlin Castro, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals
THE BAT Hitter Rank: 128
NFBC Hitter ADP Rank: 166
Castro gets the double whammy of being a boring old veteran and getting an underrated park boost. It's more obvious that it's a park boost than it is for Thames, coming from an obvious pitchers' haven in Marlins Park, but few realize that he's going from one of the absolute worst parks to one of the absolute best. Add multi-position eligibility and an ADP a hundred picks too low (at least!) and you have one of the best middle infield bargains of the year.
Dexter Fowler and Tyler O'Neill, OFs, St. Louis Cardinals
THE BAT Hitter Ranks: 183/180
NFBC Hitter ADP Ranks: 274/265
Both of these Cards outfielders are elite values. With Marcell Ozuna and Jose Martinez gone, what was once a crowded outfield is suddenly almost barren with only four legitimate outfielders on the roster. Fowler is the boring old veteran, but he has a bit of power and speed and projects for nearly 500 PA by just about every projection system out there. If he leads off (which is possible), that's just gravy. O'Neill is the higher-upside play, and is a strong value even in a mean outcome sense. He may be viewed as their fourth OF right now, but with strong raw power and a clear path to added playing time, it's unclear why he's roughly the 550th player off the board.
Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
THE BAT Hitter Rank: 65
NFBC Hitter ADP Rank: 117
In the middle rounds, you won't do much better for value than teammate DeJong, who despite being just 26 years old, seems to be getting pushed into the "boring old veteran" bucket early in his career. Maybe that's the .233 BA last year combined with good-but-not-elite power, but his strikeout rate went down, his walk rate went up, and his .259 BABIP is certainly too low. In terms of round-and-position-considered value, THE BAT doesn't see a single player out there superior to DeJong. He ought to be a top target around the same time others are speculating wildly on the likes of Garrett Hampson or Jo Adell or Carter Kieboom.
Freddy Galvis, 2B/SS, Cincinnati Reds
Adam Frazier, 2B; Gregory Polanco, OF; Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
If you're paying really close attention, you have noticed a mini-theme: There are a lot of good values from the NL Central. Part of this is that THE BAT accounts for the exact schedule and exact set of projected circumstances every player will face. The NL Central is matched up with the AL East in terms for 2020 interleague play, which means additional games in strong hitters' parks. Don't let this overwhelm your decision-making process, but it absolutely matters, and it gets accounted for organically in the projections that do seem to show a clear miscalculation by the market. These are a few others that stick out as strong choices.
Justin Turner, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
THE BAT Hitter Rank: 71
NFBC Hitter ADP Rank: 102
Turner doesn't have overwhelming power, but it's easily above average. He hits for great batting average in the middle of an elite lineup and posts a wOBA north of .370 every single year. Maybe he's not sexy, but he's a great-bordering-on-elite hitter who gets taken several rounds too late.
David Dahl, OF, Colorado Rockies
THE BAT Hitter Rank: 49
NFBC Hitter ADP Rank: 95
Tired of me hyping up boring old dudes? Want some upside plays? I present to you Dahl, who gets pushed into this category because his long-awaited breakout just never happened ... but it's tough to break out when you're not actually on the field. He still managed 413 pretty outstanding plate appearances last year and he seems healthy so far this spring. Especially playing in Coors, Dahl's upside is massive if he can just play. Personally, I'd much rather gamble on the upside of someone with established skills and elite context than on a younger player who I'm hoping develops his skills further -- especially when the Dahl kind of upside comes at a discount and you have to pay a premium for the other.
Daniel Murphy, 1B, Colorado Rockies
THE BAT Hitter Rank: 104
NFBC Hitter ADP Rank: 163
Throw Murphy in there for good measure. He's even more of a health risk, but he has clear, quality skills in Coors. Especially in mid-sized leagues where you have to dig into the pool a bit but still have capable replacements on your bench or waiver wire, enjoy Murphy when he plays and plug in somebody decent when he doesn't. The ability to do this tacks additional value onto Murphy, but it's rarely accounted for by the market.
Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves
THE BAT Hitter Rank: 120
NFBC Hitter ADP Rank: 154
You know what the best kind of post-hype sleeper is? The kind that doesn't have to get any better than he already is to create value. Swanson was once the top prospect in all of baseball but never developed into much more than a league-average hitter. He's still just 26, though, has a well-rounded skill set, and hits in a solid lineup. There's upside beyond what he has done career-to-date, but even if he just repeats last year (as most projection systems expect), he's still going too low.
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
THE BAT Hitter Rank: 21
NFBC Hitter ADP Rank: 60
Suarez is the best value you'll find on the high end. NL Central schedule, excellent home park, strong (and much-improved) surrounding lineup, near-elite skills. The spring shoulder injury has some concerned, sure, but he's been progressing well and seems like he could even be ready by Opening Day or shortly thereafter. A third-round hitter in the sixth round? Sign me up.
Joey Gallo, OF, Texas Rangers
THE BAT Hitter Rank: 30
NFBC Hitter ADP Rank: 65
Nobody in baseball has more power than Gallo. That will come with a low batting average, but that's easily remedied by some late-round snoozers like Murphy or Castro or Reynolds, and you'll get Gallo cheaper than you ought to because the market tends to underrate players with imbalanced skill sets (unless it's speed -- the market really is not consistent with its rules). The new Globe Life Field is unlikely to play as hitter-friendly with the roof closed up to 75% of the time, but the dimensions are more hitter-friendly than the old park, so it's not all bad news, and it may not matter much for a guy like Gallo anyway.
Additional value options: David Peralta, Hunter Renfroe, Justin Upton, Randal Grichuk, Joey Votto, Mark Canha, Andrew McCutchen, Adam Eaton, Kyle Schwarber, Ryan Braun, Didi Gregorius, Jean Segura, Teoscar Hernandez, Brian Anderson