A likely Hall of Fame pitcher with 333 career saves, including 42 in 2018, could be in the final hours of free agency at this time next week. Craig Kimbrel remains on the market for several reasons, but surely one of them is because if a big league team signs him before the amateur draft ends -- and it ends next Wednesday -- then it must surrender a high draft pick. The millions of dollars is no big deal in a billion-dollar industry, of course, but the pick is key. The same deal holds for veteran left-handed starter Dallas Keuchel, but fantasy managers are not as interested in him. With Kimbrel, where he signs is critical, because we presume saves -- though not necessarily! -- and someone else loses them upon his arrival. Kimbrel is available in 36 percent of ESPN standard leagues, but that will change soon.
One assumes only a contender would be interested in Kimbrel, and for him the same appeal of October baseball awaits. He is not going to the Miami Marlins, folks. Several contenders seem needier than others for an established closer, but there is little clarity on which teams would be interested. My advice here is simple: Add Kimbrel to your benches this week in advance of his pending signing. It seems unlikely he sits out this season. In addition, do not be afraid to add a potential saves option on a team that could sign Kimbrel. One can always move on from that pitcher in a week. He could go to myriad places and be a top-five closer the rest of the season. I have concerns about how Kimbrel pitched in 2018, and whether he can be ready to pitch before mid-June, but those seem minor in the big picture.
Which team could get Kimbrel? Well, let us go in wins order, because one never knows.
Minnesota Twins: Yeah, they and the next team have 36 wins. The Twins are legit and manager Rocco Baldelli has right-hander Blake Parker and lefty Taylor Rogers sharing the saves role. They could easily assume setup roles. Kimbrel would get many saves here.
Los Angeles Dodgers: This destination seems unlikely, since Kenley Jansen is the closer, but if Kimbrel wants to win, this team can do it. The Dodgers could use bullpen depth.
New York Yankees: Unlikely as well, but teams with money do surprising things. Lefty Aroldis Chapman last reached 60 innings in 2015.
Houston Astros: This one is the most unlikely of the contenders, as Roberto Osuna and Ryan Pressly have things under control.
Tampa Bay Rays: Leaving aside the financial wherewithal to make it happen, lefty Jose Alvarado and right-hander Diego Castillo are thriving.
Philadelphia Phillies: With their three most expensive relievers all on the injured list (David Robertson, Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter), and crazy money still to spend, the Phillies could definitely do this. Hector Neris and his unhittable splitter would have to understand demotion to an eighth-inning role. I doubt manager Gabe Kapler would mess around with Kimbrel in the eighth inning, ever.
Chicago Cubs: Pedro Strop is due back soon, perhaps this week, but the Cubs have saves in only 10 of their 30 wins. Only three teams have fewer saves. This seems as obvious a destination as Philly.
Milwaukee Brewers: Lefty Josh Hader is amazing, but no right-hander has stepped up, like the past two seasons, to handle the saves and provide Hader's manager more early appearance flexibility. If Kimbrel signs here, Hader would still be a top-five fantasy reliever, but sans the saves.
Atlanta Braves: Fantasy managers have been cool to trusting right-hander Luke Jackson as the closer, after Arodys Vizcaino (health) and A.J. Minter (walks) could not handle things. A Kimbrel reunion seems like the most obvious of choices to me, but add Jackson today just in case. I could see 30-plus saves here for him, even with lefty Sean Newcomb in play, if he continues to pitch well.
Boston Red Sox: In one of my leagues I am so desperate for saves that I have signed, in order, Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Barnes again, Brandon Workman and now Marcus Walden, after he saved Sunday's win. Manager Alex Cora has these four options, all with a sub-3.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. Three of them have big K rates. I really think the Red Sox want to avoid signing Kimbrel, who saved 108 games for them the past three seasons. I do not know if Walden gets more saves, but I think, at this point, it has become clear that Cora wants Barnes setting up.
Those are the top 10 teams in wins entering Tuesday. The only other club I think is a realistic home for Kimbrel is the St. Louis Cardinals, since right-hander Jordan Hicks could not get an out on Sunday, and lefty Andrew Miller is not up to the task. Carlos Martinez? The Cardinals could get Kimbrel and anger the Hicks investors. All we think we know is some team will sign Kimbrel next week, and in a season with few important closer changes, this one will be a big deal.
Holiday weekend takeaways
• Seattle Mariners speedster Mallex Smith sat the final two weekend games in Oakland because he was struggling. He had last stolen a base in the major leagues more than a month ago, and prior to his minor league demotion. Fantasy managers had little reason to activate Smith for this week. Then he went and stole four bases on Monday, three of them in the eighth inning and yes, one of them was of home. Yeah, I wish I had him active, too, but who knew? Smith is among the league leaders in the category, despite a .176 batting average in 140 plate appearances. Are things fine now? Should we expect multiple steals per game, per week, per whatever? Due to the utter paucity of stolen bases, Smith should be rostered in all roto leagues (don't bother in points formats), but I cannot tell you he is going to hit enough to steal 40 bases this season. He could, though. Cleveland Indians rookie outfielder Oscar Mercado, however, is younger and now the No. 2 hitter for his team, and he stole two bases Monday. Mercado looks safer.
• Rough game for Chicago Cubs star Javier Baez, as he struck out in each of his five plate appearances in Houston and swung and missed at 13 pitches, which is the most by anyone in at least a decade. I am getting a bit concerned about Baez, thanks to a 32 percent strikeout rate, way up from any of his recent seasons. It is also worth pointing out an unsustainable .413 BABIP has fueled his unsustainable .310 batting average, and he has stolen only two bases. Is he still a top-20 fantasy option? I think so, but changes need to be made during the next month or there will be panic about a five-category star providing only power. In other Cubs news, I sat Kris Bryant in a weekly league because we knew he would sit Monday and Tuesday. Will he play Wednesday in Houston, after the weekend outfield collision with Jason Heyward? Stay tuned.
• Rough debut for Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, who permitted six first-inning runs in Cincinnati, most on a Jose Iglesias grand slam. I have Keller active everywhere, so I particularly enjoyed it! I will say that Keller, like everyone else in their first big league game, had a right to be nervous, and to his credit he settled down and tossed three shutout frames after that. Keller has been a top pitching prospect for years, a control option with strikeout potential in a friendly pitcher park. Day 1 was rough. I hope the Pirates keep him around or re-promote him soon, though fantasy managers should always be wary of rookie pitchers.
• I still recall the resounding Twitter vile when I made the silly decision to defend Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke on Opening Day. Well, it was not silly to defend him, because it seemed obvious to me, but to do so on social media, as I have learned, has little upside. Greinke allowed seven runs to the Dodgers that day. Ordinary persons and fantasy analysts alike pointed out his low fastball velocity, which is always lower than most, his advanced age, his poor spring, his taste in fashion, whatever, and the boulder went downhill from there. Since then, Greinke has made 11 starts, including Monday when he aced yet another test at Coors Field, allowing one run over six innings. All 11 starts have been quality outings by the definition. Greinke is the No. 3 starting pitcher on the full-season Player Rater, which includes Opening Day. I do not take victory laps on predictions, because there is no upside there, either, but I do have patience with top players, and Greinke is just outside my top 10 fantasy pitchers. Still.
• It is all happening for Minnesota Twins outfielder Byron Buxton, who launched his fifth home run on Monday. He has five homers and nine stolen bases less than a third into the season. No, this fellow will never win a batting title and his No. 9 lineup spot makes him a non-DFS factor but 15 homers and 30 steals will work just fine for us.
• Rostering Texas Rangers right-hander Lance Lynn is going to be dangerous, for he permits a lot of stuff, as I like to say on the Fantasy Focus Baseball podcast (hits, runs, walks, you name it). He did strike out double digits on Monday for the second consecutive outing and is on pace to surpass 200 whiffs. That matters in most leagues, even if his ERA will be on the wrong side of 4.00, which it figures to be. Call him the new AL version of what Jeff Samardzija used to be.
Health report
• Colorado Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon missed the enticing home weekend series with the Baltimore Orioles due to a calf injury, which was bad enough since that pitching staff is a mess, but then the club waited until late Monday afternoon -- after fantasy deadlines -- to place him on the injured list. Blackmon will miss an entire week of home games! Ugh! The injury appears relatively minor but missing three home series is a real bummer, since Blackmon is hitting .397 with a 1.350 OPS in home games and .238 with a .637 OPS away from Denver. What a lost opportunity. Raimel Tapia looks solid as a short-term leadoff option in his stead.
• We might not see Diamondbacks right-hander Luke Weaver for a while, as he seeks a second opinion on a forearm strain, which is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery. It is a shame too, because Weaver, seemingly a failed top prospect from his Cardinals days, looked great this season, with a refined cutter that was missing many bats. He is the No. 27 starting pitcher on the Rater. Unfortunately, if you need the roster spot, replace him because we might not see Weaver until mid-2020.
Closing time
• Texas Rangers right-hander Shawn Kelley figures to keep getting save chances now that Jose Leclerc, preseason darling after a fantastic 2018 campaign, keeps walking people and has shoulder stiffness. Enough is enough. Keep Leclerc around in deeper formats, but in a standard mixed, I probably avoid the Rangers relievers.
• Enough is also enough with Baltimore Orioles right-hander Mychal Givens, for he has pitched terribly. Move on. Shawn Armstrong saved Monday's win, but it seems unlikely any Baltimore reliever can really aid fantasy managers. At least with the Miami Marlins -- the other acknowledged terrible team -- we have one veteran reliever getting all the saves and pitching well in Sergio Romo.
• The Colorado Rockies are going with capable Scott Oberg in place of Wade Davis, out with an oblique strain. Word is it is not a serious injury, so Davis could return soon. Oberg has pitched better than Davis since the latter arrived in 2018, but one of them makes a lot of money, so you know the drill.
W2W4
• Several members of the top 10 in season ERA take the mound, including Oakland's Frankie Montas, Milwaukee's Zach Davies and Pittsburgh's Jordan Lyles. Each is among the top-seven most-added pitchers in ESPN standard leagues, and with good reason. Montas last permitted a home run -- amazing for this era -- on April 10. His strikeout, FIP and BABIP numbers show the 2.40 ERA is not a fluke. Davies probably is, but he outpitched ordinary stuff years ago and can do so again. Lyles, like Davies, induces soft contact. Unlike him, he gets grounders but with a high K rate. Lyles permitted six runs in his most recent outing, so I am curious if that was the beginning of the end for him. He faces the Reds.
• Philadelphia right-hander Nick Pivetta is back from Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he piled on the strikeouts but had similar problems to his big league days, with too many walks (20 of them in 37 innings) and overall inefficiency. Fantasy managers have reason for interest; Pivetta's 2017 and 2018 FIP figures were each a run better than his ERA. Pivetta should be better than his numbers show. Will he be? I have doubts, and the Phillies have options. I would stash Pivetta but not start him in fantasy for a home meeting with the Cardinals, who debut intriguing left-hander Genesis Cabrera. Cabrera was hit around at Triple-A Memphis (6.35 ERA), and we all saw how Mitch Keller fared in his debut Monday.
Most recent KaraBlogs
Thursday, May 23: Free agents to add, drop: Marwin, Riley, Montas, Woodruff, etc.
Wednesday, May 22: How to deal with absence of Khris Davis, Dee Gordon
Tuesday, May 21: Closer report: Cubs, NL East, Red Sox
Monday, May 20: Bieber, Alcantara, Calhoun, Dyson, weekend wrap
Fantasy Focus Baseball Podcast: All shows