Due to the nature of weekly matchups, those in head-to-head leagues take constant stock of their teams, usually adjusting to compete with their upcoming opponents.
Diligent managers playing in rotisserie leagues are also in tune with their clubs' plights, doing routine maintenance, but there are natural checkpoints throughout the season to take extra time and give your roto roster a full tune-up. The first such time is Memorial Day weekend.
Not only is that weekend one-third of the way through the season, but also the holiday usually coincides with when category standings are on pace
With four months left, it's way too early to do "category math," determining how many of each stat is necessary to gain points in the standings. That's an exercise for the All-Star break, especially in leagues with a trade deadline at the end of July. However, it's useful to look at your team's stead with a few big-picture ideals in mind.
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
Especially this season, after the recent influx of formidable prospects, it's worthwhile to get a sense of the changes on your competitors' rosters, as well as who might make a difference on their reserve or injured lists. This also aids in identifying trade partners.
People have the power
Year after year, postmortem analysis of fantasy leagues shows that the teams at the top of the standings fared best in home runs. This makes sense because homers also add runs, RBIs and batting average, but it's always reassuring when research supports intuition. That said, this season it is even more important to be competitive in the category because more runs than ever are crossing the plate via the long ball. Homers are up, as is run scoring, but the relative increase in home runs exceeds that of runs.
What this means is if you're lagging in power, try to acquire sluggers hitting in the heart of the order on productive teams. You're not just acquiring stats for the singular category; you're also piggybacking runs and RBIs.
Running on empty
While much of the focus this season has been on the record-setting home run pace, flying under the radar is the paucity of pilfers. In fact, if things don't change, this well be the first season since 1972 that averages fewer than one steal per game.
This has extended fantasy repercussions. Fewer stolen bases mean the category is more tightly bunched than normal. The urgency might come into play more later in the campaign as category gaps stabilize, but acquiring one of the top stealers potentially nets more points in the steals category than in past seasons.
Additionally, the typical categorical distribution is for the delta between the bottom and top teams to be greater than the more bunched middle of the pack. This season, the adjacent teams at the bottom will still exhibit wider separation, but the top teams will be tighter than normal. As such, not only are there more points to be had in the middle, but it's also easier to move up an extra spot or two in the upper regions of the category, relative to other years.
As always, it's a balance between loss in other categories and gain in steals, but with more points in play, dealing for or acquiring steals from the free-agent pool might be more viable than in past years.
WHIP it good
Turning to the pitching side of the ledger, by the end of the season, the points earned in ERA and WHIP are usually within three standings places. When analyzing, the key is ERA tends to move toward WHIP, in either direction. This doesn't mean your WHIP is stable, only that ERA displays more variance, usually requiring the bulk of the year to stabilize.
Exceptions are if your pitching staff has a heavy fly ball or ground ball tilt. Fly ball pitchers usually log lower WHIPs relative to ERA, while ground ballers sport higher WHIPs compared to ERA. The reason is the BABIP on fly balls is significantly lower than that on grounders, but more fly balls obviously lead to more homers.
Most fantasy staffs are balanced, but it's worth checking to see if the disparity between ERA and WHIP is several points. If so, the correction might not be as steep as hoped with unbalanced arms.
Freedom of choice
Gauging stead in ERA and WHIP helps decide if the most efficient approach is punting ratios to bully wins and whiffs -- or the opposite to fortify ratios while sacrificing the other categories.
Usually, the play is staying with the status quo. However, sometimes managing your staff to either extreme maximizes points. Part and parcel to this approach is trading away pitchers counter to the strategy swerve, hopefully to strengthen hitting to help make up the lost points.
For example, when dumping ratios, look to deal your better starters, assuming you have one or two who aren't underperforming. Since you don't care about ratios, you'll be able to pitch and ditch lesser arms for next to nothing. When opting to focus on ratios, rid your roster of higher strikeout starters since you're punting punchouts. Here, your replacements are the dominant middle relievers no one wants, given that they aren't generating saves or holds in leagues using them.
Cruel summer
Regardless of the tact, keep in mind that history demonstrates pitching numbers are about to swell as the weather warms before coming back down in the fall. It isn't always the case; there are some outlying months. However, on average, by most measures, hitting picks up over the summer as the air warms and the ball travels farther.
This makes streaming pitchers less effective than in April and September. The problem is twofold. Come the last month, the demand for available spot starters is greater, though in some leagues this is mitigated by deadbeat teams turning to football. Plus, the supply of two-start options in weekly leagues is lessened as clubs call up prospects, bumping scheduled double-dippers from second outings.
A common means of handling pitching the next few months is a prudent approach, liberally relying on dominant middle relievers in lieu of back-end starters. In today's landscape, the difference in innings each week between a good reliever and weak starter is minimal, as is the number of strikeouts posted.
The plan is protecting ratios while not ignoring wins and strikeouts. Then, come the All-Star break, decide if it's time to ramp up the innings to catch up in the counting categories or continue to make judicious moves until September, when it's crunch time.
High hopes
In summary, winning a rotisserie league requires a lot of work. Although it's a grind, there are a few points in the season when it's obligatory to spend even more time. Make an honest appraisal of your roster, concentrating on the following:
How do my league's rosters shake out after the recent wave of prospect activations?
Do I have enough home runs?
Can I take advantage of fewer league-wide steals?
Is my ERA apt to move toward my WHIP, and will that help or hurt?
Is it best to punt some of the pitching categories?
How does my pitching set up with the impending uptick in run scoring?
Don't get hung up on a specific number of stats to gain points. It's too early for that. However, it isn't too early to prep for the next few months using historical trends as a guide.