The European League Championship Series Regional Qualifier, also known as the Gauntlet, has seen teams rise up to the occasion on the way to an otherwise inaccessible World Championship berth (look no further than North America's Cloud9 in 2015) or to a momentous performance (Origen's semifinal placement). As the two aforementioned squads showed, the last-chance qualifier can be a thrilling experience.
As we explore the 2016 European Regional tournament, we can only note that the same may be happening all over again. Returning this year are Unicorns of Love's Fabian "Sheepy" Mallant, Kiss "Vizicsacsi" Tamas and Zdravets "Hylissang" Iliev Galabov, as well as then-ROCCAT head coach Jakob "YamatoCannon" Mebdi, now the coach of Splyce.
Splyce and the Unicorns of Love are not alone; Fnatic and Giants Gaming are also part of the festivities. How do the participants fare? And what would be their saving grace if their chances are low?
Giants Gaming's odds: Winning the lotto three times in a row
When Giants were a functional crew, they dodged their laning phase shortcomings and systematically swapped lanes to occupy half of their opponent's jungle, allowing them to capitalize on pick opportunities. That is, unless Lennart "Smittyj" Warkus or Na "NighT" Gun-woo spiraled out of control following a gank from their jungler, Nubar "Maxlore" Sarafian.
Were because they have devolved from the group that had had a surprising showing during the season to overaggressive (or downright desperate) playmakers during the playoffs, but matters may have turned beyond sour for the Spanish organization, at least according to a recent tweet from the squad's head coach, David "LoZarK" Alonso Vicente.
Regarding all this soap drama: we are having internal problems within the group leading us to not scrimming these days.
— David Alonso Vicente (@Lozarklol) September 1, 2016
Giants had an opportunity to learn from the mistakes of other teams during the playoffs, but team chemistry issues may lead to roster changes - a matter that would preoccupy the organization more than their chances of making it past the Unicorns of Love.
Can an individual win the lotto reliably three times in a row? Possible, but very unlikely.
Unicorns of Love's odds: The New York Knicks' chances at going beyond the first round of the playoffs in 2016-2017
One might think the Knicks? Making the playoffs? but there's a little more hope around the team considering their offseason moves, and a few more bench hires would solidify its status as a potential playoff team, bar injuries and chemistry issues. As such, I would say that the Unicorns of Love's chances at reaching the World Championship's group stages are fair on paper.
UoL has had one of the biggest surges in terms of power level since the release of the playoff patch, allowing new hires and veterans to showcase their abilities more reliably. Kiss "Vizicsacsi" Tamas remains a pillar within the squad, and protecting him would be a primary key for Kang "Move" Min-su. Fabian "Exileh" Schubert has also displayed improvement over the season, culminating in a lights-out showing against Fnatic in the playoff quarterfinals.
However, the deck may be stacked against UoL considering the lack of practice partners as Fnatic and Splyce canceled scrimmages against them. As Fnatic and Splyce currently withhold their decks in hand, the Unicorns may have to blindly all-in (although they currently carry the equivalent of a queen pair in hand). Their understanding of the meta and their ability to play accordingly has already allowed them to surprise G2 Esports and H2K Gaming despite 3-1 defeats.
Fnatic's odds: The same as the Miracle on Ice (or Cloud9's reverse-sweep run) happening ever again
Fnatic are in a desperate situation. Not only have they missed the auto-qualification scenarios of old, they had fallen from grace, away from the top of the LCS, with their dismantling at the hands of H2K Gaming standing as a potential beginning of the end for Fabian "Febiven" Diepstraten and his teammates. Without the ability to open the map and stall long enough in the bottom lane to survive during the laning phase or pull ahead through ganks, they seemed listless, a shell of glories' past.
Without perfect team chemistry, Fnatic may falter against the Unicorns of Love, who will be meeting them in the gauntlet semifinals lest Giants somehow manage to upset fate, distort the boundaries of time and space, and bend them to their will to avert UoL's impending victory.
But they have an unlikely ally in their quest for a deeper gauntlet run: LCS summer finalists Splyce. Will Mateusz "Kikis" Szkudlarek morph into something greater than Martin "Wunder" Hansen? Will Lee "Spirit" Da-yoon make the right early-game calls and allow Bora "YellOwStaR" Kim to dictate the shots for the remainder of the game? Will YellOwStaR himself recapture his 2015 shape? Too many parameters, especially against Splyce (or against the decisive Unicorns of Love).
Splyce's odds at NOT making it: You rolling nat20 five times in a row, right now.
Far-fetched, isn't it? But this is Splyce's position. As the last team to enter the gauntlet, they have the luxury to observe the hand their opponents play, and how they play them. In addition, their team play has been consistently better than all teams not named G2 Esports this summer. The sole team with more chances to upset Splyce (other than Kikis and Spirit turning into Huni and Reignover) is UoL, who have no scrimmages planned against them.
Of course, their record against UoL during the regular season (1W-2L, let's omit the Sion support game) may have been a cause for concern had the meta not evolved, but the meta did, in fact, evolve. With lane matchups becoming more important, they can create advantageous situations during the draft for their solo laners, with Exileh's champion pool posing a problem.
By the way, if you did roll five nat20s in a row, I would require proof, if only for fun.