Things happen fast in the world of Counter-Strike, and while the $1 million MLG Columbus major is still fresh in our minds, the time has come for the next large scale tournament to take place. DreamHack Open Malmo will kick off on Tuesday in Sweden, with a team list -- aside from Olof "Olof Kajbjer' Kajbjer's Fnatic, and Ladislav "GuardiaN" Kovács missing due to injuries -- that rivals, if not beats, that of MLG's. Here are the key storylines to look out for at the event.
Are Luminosity going to make it two-for-two in April?
The Brazilians now face the same issue that has troubled EnVyUs since DreamHack Open Cluj-Napoca. It is easier to get to the top than to stay there, and there is little else that could affect motivation in the same way as becoming world champions. There is no evidence to suggest the same issue will rear its ugly head here, but it is something to keep in mind. Meanwhile, Gabriel "FalleN" Toledo leads his team to Malmo as the heavy favorites, with Fnatic missing and Na'Vi playing without their superstar. They are an incredibly complete team with few weak spots, but more teams will try to find some than ever before, and some will succeed. You are kidding yourself if you think threat has not spent hours and hours trying to figure out how to beat Marcelo "coldzera" David's team next time around, and he is not alone. Either way, my money is on the Brazilians to win. Some came close in Columbus, but almost is not enough.
Can the French teams bounce back this quickly?
It begins to look like Timothée "Devil" Démolon is going to stay in EnVyUs, with no roster moves coming in the near future. As such, one would expect Vincent "Happy" Cervoni Schopenhauer and company to properly start integrating him into their game, as opposed to simply slapping him in Fabien "kioShiMa" Fiey's spots and hoping for the best. Unfortunately, they have not had much practice time since the roster change, and with DreamHack Open Malmo beginning a week after the team returned home from MLG Columbus, odds are we will not see a largely different product in-game in Sweden.
Similarly, G2's decision to recruit Alexandre "bodyy" Pianaro in the place of their long standing in-game leader Kevin "Ex6TenZ" Droolans will shake things up on their site. G2 had been improving so far in 2016, with a couple of good results to their names, but another failure to pass the group stage at MLG was enough. The change was not announced until Saturday, which means Richard "shox" Papillon will most likely spend the tournament in Malmo mostly calling on the fly, with the team having little time to practice set strategies -- if shox's leadership style will even need any.
Odds are stacked against each French team, especially given their groups.G2 has a slightly easier task with GuardiaN-less Na'Vi starring group B, and both Markus "pronax" Wallsten's GODSENT and Counter Logic Gaming definitely beatable, but they probably are still only 50-50 in the deciding game. For Nathan "NBK" Schmitt's team, the task at hand is much greater, with Virtus.pro, Tempo Storm and FaZe -- whose fifth player is not known at the time of writing -- all not only capable of beating the former major champions, but with the Polish and Brazilian teams having done so at IEM Katowice.
What can TyLoo do in their international debut?
Many expected TyLoo to be favored in the Asian minor for MLG Columbus, but Wu "qz" Quan Qing's VAC ban prohibited the team from participating. However, they dominated the DreamHack Open Malmo qualifier, and are now getting their first international chance at CS:GO to showcase what they are capable of. CyberZen, their rival in China, looked reasonably good at SL i-League StarSeries XIV Finals, putting up a good fight against G2 and even taking a map. Yet TyLoo, led by youngster Cai "fancy1" Lun Yu's stellar play, have looked stronger in domestic competition and could possibly do even better against the world's best teams. Seeing how good this team is will be one of the more interesting storylines to keep in mind in Malmo.
Will Na'Vi be competitive with Sergey "starix" Ischuk in GuardiaN's place?
When you replace your best player, and the world's second best player, you will never remain an elite team. Na'Vi have, understandably, chosen to go with starix, the player who used the play the AWPer's role in the team before Egor "flamie" Vasilyev replaced him in early 2015. As a sniper, starix was the passive type, choosing to play angles correctly and going for the +EV plays at all times, as opposed to trying to decide rounds with flashy plays and early aggression. As such, the adaptation from GuardiaN will require a massive change in Na'Vi's playing style, something similar to how they played in the grand final of MLG Columbus when the Slovak played with a sensitivity of three to four times his usual. And yet, Na'Vi are such a strong team, with plenty of firepower packed in their trio of flamie, Ioann "Edward" Sukhariev and Denis "seized" Kostin, that they can still compete. But can they contend for the title?
How good is Ninjas in Pyjamas with Jacob "pyth" Mourujärvi?
At IEM Katowice NiP were still too fresh with threat, who returned from Japan only a couple of weeks prior to the event. The Swedes looked promising though, taking a meaningless map from Luminosity and losing narrow games to Na'Vi and Fnatic. But pyth could not sort out his visa for MLG Columbus, and months after he joined the team, we still do not truly know just how good this new iteration of NiP lineup might be. This coming week will begin to answer that question, with a somewhat challenging group featuring astralis and dignitas to kick things off. NiP could even compete for the title here, if everything goes to plan, given Fnatic's and GuardiaN's absence. DreamHack Open Malmo could mark the beginning of the 2016 NiP's return to the top, with threat now in his appropriate role that will allow Christopher "GeT_RiGhT" Alesund to not take one third of the team's opening duels.
Are either of mousesports and Tempo Storm going to make playoffs?
This is a group of teams with expectations of reaching the playoffs, despite none of them actually being favoured to do so. The latter shares a group with Virtus.pro, FaZe and EnVyUs -- the three most vulnerable teams above them in the rankings -- while mousesports has a more-than reasonable chance against Liquid. And yet, it is entirely possible that all of them fall flat on their faces, and depart Malmo with another disappointed placing added towards the bottom of their resumes.
For mousesports the pressure is on with plenty of teams rumored to be interested in buying out Nikola "NiKo" Kovač's contract. Tempo Storm are a more complete team, and showcased great Counter-Strike play in Katowice. Surrounding these two teams are more questions than answers, and that is why following their campaigns at DreamHack will be interesting to everyone, not just the fans of those teams.
Can Team Dignitas bounce back, or will they disappoint again?
The Danes, led by Mathias "MSL" Lauridsen, have had a tough stretch of play since ESL Barcelona, including losing the MLG Columbus qualifier against Renegades and Cloud9, and getting eliminated in the quarterfinals of Copenhagen Games by E-Frag, the Bulgarian team who usually cannot field their full roster at tournaments. But in the past week they have secured online best-of-three series wins over EnVyUs and Virtus.pro, though neither has been impressive recently, which suggests they could be on the way back. MSL said on Twitter that he does not like facing Astralis and NiP, the favorites to advance from group C, and it is understandable. This Dignitas roster has never won a map against either. As such, they are unlikely to make it out, but with a bootcamp and solid preparation, it is not impossible. Can Dignitas bounce back?
How well can Liquid do in Kenneth "koosta" Suen's debut?
Liquid's 19-year-old AWPer, who was added from Selfless to replace Eric "adreN" Hoag, is facing tons of pressure at his international debut for Liquid. On top of the high expectations and the fact koosta has never played internationally before, Liquid managed a top four placing at MLG Columbus, which included throwing away a total of 15 map points against Luminosity in the semi-final. It is going to be all-but impossible to top their performance, especially given the level of competition is not as good in Malmo -- Liquid would probably need to win it all for the result to rival their showing in Columbus. But koosta is not a short-term play, and the team, and their fans, need to keep that in mind when watching them evolve. It is hard to see how Oleksandr "s1mple" Kostyliev would not pick up an AWP when Liquid are losing, and why would he not? He is one of the fastest snipers in the world. This team does not fit together on paper, but crazier lineups have worked in the past.
What about the other usual suspects?
Other teams who could contend for the title are Virtus.pro and Astralis. The Poles have not looked good so far in 2016, but their play in Columbus gave fans some hope. They gave Luminosity a scare, and were the only team to take a map from the Brazilian juggernauts at the event. Their ceiling is still incredibly high -- or should be, anyways -- but it seems harder and harder for them to reach that place in their play. Pasha has been ailing for even longer than the team itself, and Janusz "Snax" Pogorzelski taking over Filip "Neo" Kubski's AWPing role at times shows the team itself is not sure what to do. Add on top Wiktor "TaZ" Wojtas' outburst on Facebook, and it seems all-but confirmed this team lacks leadership. Sometimes too many equals can be a bad thing. A tiny amount of dictatorship could do Virtus.pro some good.
Meanwhile, Astralis had a strong showing in Columbus, right up until the moment they once again lost it. Despite olofmeister's issues, the victory over Fnatic was not irrelevant, and the Danes have been playing well throughout the opening months of 2016. We have not seen Astralis take on Luminosity too many times, and they have a good chance against every other opponent. In fact, save for NiP potentially being in top notch shape, I would favor Astralis to make the grand final. Sometimes you need to catch a break, as Luminosity did with the injuries of olofmeister and GuardiaN. DreamHack Malmo could open up a similar window for Astralis, but device will need to lead his team through it - you need to be able to capitalize on chances, at some point.
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