These last couple of weeks of college football has provided some clarity. A few teams kept winning, a few kept surviving and a few finally ran into the matchup their resume wasn't built to handle.
BYU is sitting in the middle of the pressure, 9-1 overall, No. 11 in the rankings and still alive for both the playoff and the Big 12 title game.
They are 6-1 in conference, trailing 7-1 Texas Tech and holding their spot ahead of a crowded group of 5-2 teams in Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati. The reality is that BYU has no margin. Win in Week 13, and the path stays open; lose, and the entire playoff case collapses.
This is where late season matchups decide everything.
All odds by ESPN BET
No. 11 BYU Cougars at Cincinnati Bearcats
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: BYU -2.5
Money line: BYU (-135), Cincinnati (+115)
Over/Under: 54.5 (O -115, U -105)
BYU: Where the forecast catches up to the record
Two weeks ago, the no-playoff position I wrote for BYU was not about the wins on the resume but a projection; what the Cougars profile would look like when it hit the Texas Tech/Cincinnati wall. The Red Raiders gave us the first wobble, but Cincinnati is the game that validates the projection. This matchup stresses BYU in all the places its resume has been hiding.
The run defense efficiency has been the tell all season. The Cougars sit 69th in defensive rush success rate and outside the top 70 in rush defense grade, a flaw that only shows up against teams that can push it. Iowa State ran for 184 yards, Utah for 202, Arizona for 164 and Texas Tech for 149 and handed BYU a loss. That was the profile breaking the moment the opponent had the tools to force the issue.
A second pressure point is explosive vulnerability. BYU is 42nd in yards allowed but that's because its defense is built to limit long drives, not explosives. Offenses have moved the ball on the Cougars. Give a quarterback leverage, and their coverage efficiency slips.
The final limiting factor is BYU's offensive ceiling. Its success rate profile, 29th overall, 35th in rushing and 51st in passing, is built to control pace but not flip games if needed. The Cougars can win when they dictate the flow of the game, but look ordinary when forced into adaptation or comeback scripts.
This is why the no playoff projection was made in the first place. BYU's record looked clean but its underlying metrics did not. Cincinnati is the opponent built to expose that structural weakness.
Betting consideration: Cincinnati +2.5
The handicap actually isn't about BYU. It's about the Bearcats' strengths aligning perfectly with what wins late-season home games.
Cincinnati's offensive identity is built on early-down efficiency, explosive capability and a run game that is near the top in both EPA per rush and success rate. When this offense is whole, everything flows from balance. You have QB Brendan Sorsby who has the ability to push the ball deep, the three-receiver set that wins leverage and speed matchups and, most importantly, the presence of RB Evan Pryor.
With Pryor, Cincinnati becomes a different offense. Call him the Bearcats' chain setter, edge threat and the player who forces defenses to widen just enough to open vertical windows.
When the Bearcats run with rhythm, they stay ahead of the sticks, which is where their offense becomes suffocating. Cincinnati is 6th in EPA per drive, allowing the offense to become a top-tier scoring unit when allowed to take control. At home, especially at night, that advantage is amplified. The tempo sharpens, perimeter guys play faster and Cincinnati's offense gains access to scripting that smaller defensive fronts can't match.
With Pryor expected back, Cincinnati regains that piece that stabilizes its identity, the strongest version of this team. It's that version that makes Cincinnati the wrong underdog. Cincinnati +2.5 and +115 are the plays to make.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
BYU is 5-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season, tied with Michigan State for second best in FBS, min. 5 games.
Cincinnati is 4-14 ATS following a loss since 2022, the worst in FBS (min. 5 games off a loss).
The Bearcats are 1-4 ATS vs. AP Ranked teams since 2022 (tied with Temple and Nebraska for 4th worst in FBS).