Week 12 of the NFL season gets underway Thursday night with the Buffalo Bills visiting the Houston Texans.
Josh Allen is coming off a six-TD performance for the Bills, who are trying to chase down the New England Patriots in the AFC East. The Texans evened their record with their second straight win last Sunday but are entering a brutal stretch of the schedule, with road games against the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs up next.
The Texans defeated the Bills last season, but that was with C.J. Stroud at quarterback. Stroud is still in the NFL's five-step concussion protocol, leaving Davis Mills to step in under center once again.
The Bills are 6-point favorites for Thursday's game, one in which Allen also has a chance to break the career rushing TD record by a quarterback.
Matt Bowen, Joe Fortenbaugh, Pamela Maldonado, Eric Moody and Seth Walder offer their picks, prop plays and analysis to help you bet the game.
Note: Odds at time of publication and subject to change. For the latest updates, visit ESPN BET Sportsbook. 
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Game picks | Prop bets | Betting trends
Game bets
Total points UNDER 43.5 (-110)
Fortenbaugh: Buffalo's weakness is its run defense, which currently ranks 26th in the NFL in defensive rush success rate. Unfortunately for the Texans, they aren't equipped to exploit that issue with their bottom-10 rush offense. Flip the equation around and you get Josh Allen and his sub-par receiving unit facing the NFL's second-ranked defense in terms of EPA. This has "rock fight" written all over it.
Texans team total UNDER 19.5 (-105)
Maldonado: With Davis Mills, the Texans are a slow-starting, low-ceiling offense that needs broken plays or short fields to score, and Buffalo doesn't give either. Houston has one touchdown in its last seven first-half drives, no explosive run game and a QB sitting at 6.5 yards per attempt against worse defenses. Buffalo's coverage and pressure profile erases the wide receiver explosives and forces long, mistake-prone drives, which Mills can't sustain. In a low-pace, low-total environment with no C.J. Stroud, Houston's path to 20 points isn't there.
Notable player props, bets
Davis Mills passing attempts UNDER 32.5 (-120)
Walder: The Bills are the most run-funneling defense in the NFL, with a negative-10% pass rate over expectation against them, the lowest in the league. It's easy to see why. Buffalo ranks seventh in EPA allowed per dropback but 30th in EPA allowed per designed carry. Especially with a backup quarterback at the helm, one has to imagine the underdog Texans will try to run the ball as much as they can. My pass attempts model prices this under at -181.
Woody Marks to go OVER 64.5 rushing yards (-115)
Moody: Marks has operated as the Texans' lead back in each of the last two games and logged a season-high 18 rushing attempts in Week 11 against the Tennessee Titans. That usage bodes well for Thursday night against the Bills. Buffalo's defensive front ranks 21st in run stop win rate and is allowing 5.4 yards per carry to running backs. Marks should see heavy volume for a Texans team without Stroud, as the run game is their best way to attack this Bills defense.
Joey Bosa to go OVER 0.5 sacks (+120)
Bowen: Texans quarterback Davis Mills has been sacked at least twice in each of his last three games. So, let's bet on Bosa -- who has four sacks and 30 pressures this season -- to cash in here.
Betting trends
Courtesy of ESPN Research
Houston is 0-3 ATS as underdog this season and 1-5 ATS in games off fewer than six days rest since 2024.
The Bills are 0-3 ATS in their last three prime time games, losing outright in the last two instances as favorites.
Unders are 29-15 in Texans games under DeMeco Ryans, the highest under rate in the NFL.