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College football betting: How to bet Oklahoma-Auburn

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Pamela Maldonado: Back Oklahoma vs. Auburn (0:57)

Pamela Maldonado explains why she is backing Oklahoma vs. Auburn this week. (0:57)

It's Week 4 of college football and things are getting wild. We've been spoiled with action. This week should be no different.

College football's always better when the styles clash and that's exactly how this matchup sets up.

Auburn comes in wanting to slow everything down, chew clock and turn it into a fistfight. Oklahoma is looking to open it up, hit the gas and see if anybody can keep pace. Two undefeated teams, two completely different identities and only one way it's going to break.

This is a matchup of patience versus pressure, of run-first grind against aerial fireworks, and knowing which identity holds up in Norman could be the difference between tearing up your betting ticket or cashing one.


No. 22 Auburn Tigers at No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Line: Oklahoma -6.5
Money line: Oklahoma (-230), Auburn (+195)
Over/Under: 48.5 (O Even, U -120)


Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information

  • Oklahoma is one of eight Power 4 teams to have every game go under the total this season.

  • Oklahoma is 9-3 ATS as a home favorite since 2023, best among Power 4 teams (min. 10 games).

  • Auburn is 5-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, tied for best among Power 4 teams (min. 5 games).

  • The under is 5-0 in Oklahoma's meetings against ranked teams since the start of last season (highest under rate in any team).


The run-first, ball-control identity of Auburn

Auburn is 3-0 knowing exactly who they are -- a run-first, ball-control team built around RB Jeremiah Cobb and Oklahoma transfer QB Jackson Arnold. Cobb's the steady back who moves the chains, while Arnold is the spark. When he takes off, Auburn is tough to stop. Look at Week 1 against Baylor; he threw for only 108 yards but ran for 137 and two touchdowns. That's Auburn at its best.

The concern is when Arnold has to sit back and pass. Ball State was the outlier. He threw for 251 yards and three scores, but he also was sacked four times. If that's happening against Ball State, what's going to happen against an Oklahoma defense that's tied for the third-most pressures in the SEC and ranks first in the country in pass efficiency defense?

For Auburn to hang around in Norman, they need to lean into who they are. Pound the ball, shorten the game and let Arnold pick his spots as a runner. They've been nearly mistake-free so far, with no interceptions and just one lost fumble. That's how they have to play. Keep it clean, make it ugly and hope it comes down to the fourth quarter.

Oklahoma is explosive through the air with John Mateer

The Sooners are also 3-0 but it's a very different identity with Mateer, the prized transfer from Washington State. He has been efficient through the air, averaging 316 passing yards per game with 9.0 yards per attempt, and spreads the ball around with Deion Burks, Keontez Lewis and tight end Jaren Kanak, who has turned into a real mismatch at 17.5 yards a catch.

The difference is Arnold is not a major passing threat with legs, while Mateer is a passer who can run, already putting up 161 rushing yards and four touchdowns. That gives defenses another problem to solve.

The run game as a whole is starting to find balance. Tory Blaylock has been the lead back at 5.4 yards per carry and three touchdowns. That Temple game was the breakthrough with 228 yards on the ground after a slow start in the first two weeks. If that sticks, this offense has another layer.

The defense is the story, though. Oklahoma leads in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to a 21% success rate on third and fourth downs, best in the FBS. The Sooners have allowed zero touchdowns in the red zone. Small sample size, still elite. The one issue is turnovers. Mateer has three interceptions, halfway into his 2024 interception rate, while the Sooners have a couple of lost fumbles. If they clean that up, Oklahoma is a complete football team.

Betting prediction: Oklahoma -6.5

The Sooners have been flat-out dominant on defense, holding opponents to 0-for-4 scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Auburn wants to run the football, but Oklahoma is top five in defensive success rate against the run. That puts the ball in Arnold's hands as a passer, and that is not where Auburn wants to be. He's been sacked six times already, including four against Ball State. Good luck in Norman. This is bound to be more of a sack party than a road trip.

On the other side, Oklahoma's passing game is exactly the kind of matchup Auburn does not want to see. Baylor already carved them up through the air, and now they get Mateer, who can push the ball downfield and also make plays with his legs.

Mateer has multiple options who can win one-on-one, and when the pocket breaks down, he's just as dangerous outside of it. Auburn's front might slow the run, but Mateer's ability to extend plays and turn broken pockets into chunk gains is the difference maker. That's where Oklahoma can pull away.

Auburn has played clean football, but Oklahoma's speed and depth will eventually break them down. Oklahoma's defense can suffocate and the offense can land the big shots. The Sooners can absolutely cover and cruise.