September is only three weeks in, and the Heisman and national title boards are already moving. Odds are shifting, names are rising and a few prices feel like fool's gold.
I dug into what the market is telling us, who's really worth buying and which storylines are setting up for the rest of the season.
Heads up: There's even a long shot I can't look away from.
The biggest moves and notable lines for the national championship odds
Oregon +700 
Last week: +1200
The market is buying Oregon, but I'm still not sold. The Ducks rolled through Montana State, Oklahoma State and Northwestern, but that's hardly a gauntlet. Easy schedule, easy wins, and that inflates the numbers. Yes, they look balanced with over 1,100 yards in their first two games, zero turnovers and a defense that hasn't been tested, but the résumé doesn't scream "playoff" yet. The Penn State game in two weeks is the one that matters, and that's on the road. If they show up there, then I'll buy into the Ducks as a serious national title threat. Until then, the climb from +1200 to +700 feels more like schedule-driven inflation than substance.
Oklahoma +2500
Last week: +3500
Oklahoma's win over Michigan looks good on paper, but the Wolverines might not be any good at all. They were sloppy, inefficient, and OU didn't exactly dominate. Looking ahead, the schedule will start getting tough with Tennessee and Alabama back-to-back on the road, at home vs. an Ole Miss offense that's efficient enough to carve anyone, and LSU's defense lurking late.
That's a minefield, and slip-ups are almost inevitable. At +2500, the Sooners are priced like a playoff team, but there's too much volatility and too many landmines.
Texas A&M +3000
Last week: +4000
This correlates with Marcel Reed love. The Aggies are getting a bump, but as explained with Reed, I'm beyond cautious. The defenses are coming. This feels like buying high before the toughest weeks on the schedule.
No movement with Ohio State, Penn State or Georgia. Odds haven't budged, and nothing has happened to suggest they aren't still the top tier. Everyone else has question marks. We're still waiting to see who actually separates.
Biggest moves and notable lines for the Heisman winner
John Mateer, QB, Oklahoma +850
Last week: +800 (second favorite)
New week, new Heisman favorite. Still a pass. Last week I said Mateer in the Heisman race felt premature, and my stance stays the same. His odds dipped slightly, but now he's the betting favorite after Week 3. The resume is there: nearly 1,100 yards of offense, nine touchdowns and a ranked win over Michigan.
But we've also seen dips in completion rate, passing scores that don't scream Heisman yet, and he's already halfway to last year's interception total in just three games with tougher competition still ahead. He's been fun, dynamic, and absolutely worth watching but the Heisman favorite still feels early. September hype is easy but Heisman moments happen in the back half of the season and OU's remaining opponents are averaging two interceptions per game. The real test is coming and I don't see him passing with an A+ Heisman rate.
Marcel Reed, QB, Texas A&M +1800
Last week: +3000
The most interesting Heisman profile to me belongs to Reed. He checks boxes the other two don't. He already owns a signature moment, a top-10 road win at Notre Dame where he threw for 360 yards. The moment: 4th-and-game, down 6 with 13 seconds left, delivers an 11-yard touchdown pass to put them up 41-40. Clutch. Signature. Opponent. Narrative.
Through three games he's over 1,000 total yards with 10 touchdowns and just one interception, and unlike Simpson, he adds legitimate rushing production.
His 58% completion rate is a concern, but the dual-threat profile paired with a true "Heisman moment" makes him the better fit ... right now. If he sharpens the accuracy, Reed could actually rise while the others plateau. He has time until road games at LSU and Texas.
If Reed keeps building the stat line, voters will look back and say, "it started that night at Notre Dame."
Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama: +2500
Last week: +5000
The biggest odds move this week came from Simpson, slashed from +5000 to +2500 in the Heisman market. And honestly, it's a hard no for me. The resume doesn't match the price. Yes, he threw for nearly 400 yards and four scores against Wisconsin, but that came at home, one week after padding stats in a 73-0 rout of ULM.
Zero interceptions? That's great. Alabama still has road trips to Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina and Auburn, plus home dates with Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma -- all defenses that rank top 10 in either sacks, interceptions or pass yards allowed, all of which will directly challenge Simpson's current strength, mistake-free football. My preseason stance was to fade Alabama on the road, this sets up perfectly: Simpson's odds shortened before he faces the toughest part of his schedule.
Betting consideration: Haynes King, QB, Georgia Tech 50-1
King is the engine and a true lottery ticket. Georgia Tech is 3-0 because of him, and his rushing ability has flipped games. He already has the Clemson win, and the schedule ahead gives him a chance to grow into the stat profile Heisman voters demand.
Outside of Georgia, only one remaining opponent ranks inside the top 50 in passing touchdowns allowed. Translation: there is an opening for King to start stacking the numbers he is missing right now.
The precedent is clear: the last 14 QB winners had at least 40 combined touchdowns. King has 25 career rushing scores at Georgia Tech, so the legs are proven. If he adds 20 or more passing touchdowns, which he already produced in 2023, the benchmark is within reach.
Do not forget Georgia. Last season against the Bulldogs, he threw for 303 yards, ran for 110 and accounted for five total touchdowns. If King repeats even part of that and keeps the game competitive, it gives him another Heisman moment. Pair that with a 10-2 record and 20-plus passing scores alongside his rushing production, and he is flirting with the 40-touchdown mark every modern QB winner has hit.
It is a long shot because of helmet bias, but you are betting on a perfect storm. If he finishes under 35-40 total scores, he is a great story but not a finalist. If he clears 45 and Georgia Tech is in Charlotte with 10 wins, then 50-1 looks brilliant.
Why King over others? Miami QB Carson Beck still makes the most sense (as we talked about during the preseason) but no one has meant more to his team through three weeks than King.
Final thought
I almost bought in on Reed. Why I'm hesitant: Texas A&M has LSU and Missouri back-to-back on the road. That's as tough a two-week stretch as any Heisman hopeful will face. LSU made DJ Lagway look like a freshman again with five interceptions. Missouri is top 10 in passing yards allowed, making quarterbacks earn every completion. If Reed lays back-to-back clunkers having already shown shaky efficiency, the hype vanishes.
Which brings me back to King. Other odds have already shortened hitting prices near a ceiling, while King still has room to rise.