The stars came out in force in Atlanta this week, with Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners winning the Home Run Derby and Kyle Schwarber of the Philadelphia Phillies helping the National League to victory in the first-ever tiebreaking "HR Derby-styled swing-off."
Now, the second half of the 2025 MLB regular season is ready to begin. As always, games will be won, home runs will be hit and bases will be stolen. Predicting which expected names and surprise standouts will claim the late-summer spotlight is no easy task, but our team is up to the challenge.
With that in mind, we asked Todd Zola, Derek Carty, Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft to put their heads together and give us one prop bet for each MLB team in order to give us an idea as to how the second half of the 2025 season just might turn out when all is said and done.
Odds are accurate as of time of writing. For latest odds on these and other bets, go to ESPN BET.
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American League
New York Yankees
To win the World Series (+700)
A 6-16 stretch from June 13 through July 5 not only dropped the Yankees out of first place, but it also hurt their playoff chances. Losing Clarke Schmidt is a huge blow because he rounded out the solid "top three" generally needed to compete deep into the postseason. However, the Yankees still have Max Fried and Carlos Rodon to front the rotation, and they have the means to pick up another quality starter. Their offense has been criticized as being too reliant on power -- which isn't ideal for the postseason -- but they entered the break averaging the third-most runs per game in the majors, fueled by the top overall weighted on-base average. -- Zola
Baltimore Orioles
Under 75.5 regular-season wins (-125)
The Orioles enter the break at 43-52 (.453). They need to finish just 33-34 (.492) to hit the over. This seems like a no-brainer for the under, but there is a caveat. Over their last 61 games, Baltimore has gone 30-31. Repeating those results and then splitting the last six games gets it done. However, the Orioles are likely to be unloading players at the trade deadline while the rest of the AL East could be adding players. Yes, it's encouraging the club has shown marked improvement over the past two months. However, they'll be hard-pressed to sustain this positive pace. -- Zola
Boston Red Sox
Garrett Crochet to win the AL Cy Young (+250)
This is an argument usually reserved for the MVP discussion, as the Cy Young is usually awarded to the best pitcher, with minimal regard to team context and a decreasing reliance on wins. Heading into the break, Tigers ace Tarik Skubal leads Crochet in every rate category across the board. Skubal has clearly pitched better so far. However, the difference is small and, if it remains such a tiny margin through the end of the season and the Red Sox make the playoffs, Crochet may curry the favor of voters due to his tougher division and his helping to carry his club into the postseason. -- Zola
Tampa Bay Rays
No to making the playoffs (-180)
Sorry to toss cold water on Tampa Bay's recent hot streak (a 27-13 record between May 20 and July 2), but I still see the Rays' playoff hopes being an uphill climb in the competitive AL East. A big reason for my skepticism is the change in home ballparks, as one of the keys for this team down the stretch in the past has been their comfort level in (and benefit from) pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. The Rays' .635 winning percentage at home in August and September since 2021 was third best in the league. This year, they're only 28-25 at George M. Steinbrenner Field. -- Cockcroft
Toronto Blue Jays
To win the AL East (+140)
While the Yankees (priced at +105) project to be the better team and to win more games over the remainder of the season, this is much closer to a coin flip than the current odds indicate. The Jays currently have a 3.5-game lead on New York, and my projection system (THE BAT X) sees Toronto finishing one game ahead. At +140, they require a 41.7% chance of winning the division to make this a +EV bet, and they currently project for a 46.1% chance. -- Carty
Cleveland Guardians
Jose Ramirez to win the AL MVP (+7500)
This is all about the payout in combination with a plausible pathway to win the award. Aaron Judge is the clear-cut favorite, followed by Cal Raleigh. Ramirez is next, tied with Skubal. I'm not wishing an injury upon anyone -- and other than an incident with a sprinkler head in Dodgers Stadium in 2023, Judge has shaken the injury-prone label. However, if he were to get hurt, the MVP is up for grabs. If Raleigh keeps up his torrid pace, he'll be the first AL catcher since Joe Mauer in 2009 to be named MVP. (Buster Posey was the last NL MVP catcher, in 2012.) Ramirez likely won't have the support of being on a playoff-bound team, but he has accrued the fourth-highest WAR since 2016 and could capture the sentimental "lifetime achievement" vote. -- Zola
Kansas City Royals
Noah Cameron to win the AL Rookie of the Year (+10000)
There's just not a lot of positives from which to choose with the Royals. Taking the under on 79.5 wins (-115) is the safe play, but let's think outside the box. Cameron is out over his skis and is due for a correction, but regression doesn't punch a time clock and awards are more about results than what "should have happened." With the Twins and Guardians both being candidates to unload at the trade deadline, Cameron could be facing watered-down lineups much of the time. If the ball continues to sprout a parachute when it's hit in the air, Cameron will continue to benefit from the spacious confines of Kauffman Stadium. -- Zola
Detroit Tigers
Tarik Skubal to be the regular-season strikeout leader (+285)
Skubal is the favorite to capture the AL Cy Young, but the payout isn't enticing at -210. He enters the break with the third-most punchouts, seven behind Crochet and one behind Zack Wheeler. Skubal and Wheeler have started 19 games while Crochet has taken the hill 20 times. Crochet is the favorite and will probably be pushed over the second half since the Red Sox will seemingly be in the playoff hunt. The Tigers could take it easy on Skubal, but competing for the best record in the AL might keep Skubal in games longer. Skubal should also face softer lineups over the season's second half. -- Zola
Minnesota Twins
Over 80.5 regular-season wins (-120)
Betting the over on the Twins' win total is a bet that they don't trade SP Joe Ryan. They will need a 34-32 record after the break, which is achievable with Ryan fronting a rotation that should get both Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober back in August. Ryan is under team control through 2027 and, even with a raise in arbitration, he'll be a bargain. The Twins sit just four games back of the final wild-card spot, so while they're a long shot, they are within striking distance. If they're still close at the trade deadline, they may opt to stand pat with the hope that Lopez and Ober give them a solid 5-6 weeks down the stretch. -- Zola
Chicago White Sox
Over 53.5 wins (-115)
The White Sox are not a good major league team by any stretch of the imagination. That said, it's rare that teams remain this bad for too long. They're currently on pace for 53.5 wins, so even some modest improvement would get them over the hump. THE BAT X currently projects them to finish with 57.5 wins, so there actually is some value to be had here. -- Carty
Houston Astros
To be AL's No. 1 seed (+320)
Congrats to the Tigers for their wonderfully surprising first half, but the Astros are right with them in the standings and poised to lead the AL in wins. The Astros have been to half of the World Series over the past eight seasons for a reason. Some of the names have changed, but the Astros still boast several dominant starting pitchers and an elite bullpen. Plus, they should upgrade their offense by the trade deadline. -- Karabell
Seattle Mariners
Cal Raleigh under 52.5 home runs (-160)
If you go back and look at the preseason edition of this article, you'll find me recommending Raleigh as a 70-1 MVP bet. That feels pretty good right about now. I love the guy and I love seeing him have such a big year, but 53 home runs is a lot to ask. The supporting numbers all back up the power spike this year, but you have to account for some regression (even in the Statcast metrics) and the chance of an injury (especially for a catcher). I'll be the wet blanket who takes the under in what is perhaps the season's most fun story. -- Carty
Texas Rangers
Over 80.5 regular-season wins (-120)
According to the Bill James Pythagorean win formula, the Rangers should have 54 wins, which is six more than their actual total at the break. There are many reasons why a team's actual record doesn't always reflect their run differential, but this is an extreme disparity. To hit the over, the Rangers need to win 33 of their remaining 65 games. A lot has to go right, such as Jacob deGrom staying healthy and Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker continuing to develop. Healthy returns from Tyler Mahle and Jon Gray would also help. That said, none of this is outlandish. -- Zola
Athletics
Nick Kurtz to win the AL Rookie of the Year (+600)
Kurtz would have to beat out ballyhooed teammate Jacob Wilson, who continues to hit for a high batting average, but Kurtz brings big power, and that gets noticed, too. Kurtz barely played in April, then hit five home runs in May, seven more in June, and July looks great so far. He may reach 30 home runs in his rookie season. That would be tough to ignore. -- Karabell
Los Angeles Angels
Under 76.5 regular-season wins (-120)
The Angels need just 30 more wins (in 66 games) to hit the over. However, they enjoyed a fluky first half, at least in terms of run differential, winning five more games than expected. The Bill James Pythagorean win formula is based on full-season results, so there is some "noise" applying it to a shorter sample size, but with almost 100 games in the books, five games is still a big difference. Look for Angels pitching to struggle after the break, with the team coming up short of 77 wins. -- Zola
National League
Philadelphia Phillies
Zack Wheeler to win the NL Cy Young (+170)
Wheeler has finished as runner-up for this award on two occasions, and perhaps Pirates star Paul Skenes, even with single-digit wins, manages to make Wheeler a No. 2 finisher three times over. Still, bet on Wheeler. His numbers (yet again) are certainly deserving, and many voters may give the older Wheeler the nod, viewing Skenes as having plenty of time left in his career to win more trophies. -- Karabell
Atlanta Braves
Yes to make the playoffs (+400)
No team has yet been able to overcome an 0-7 start to make the playoffs and Atlanta is showing few signs of contending, but one big winning streak may change everything. Injuries have ravaged this team, most notably their pitchers, but this organization has used prior trade deadlines to fix issues. The question is, will the Braves try to fix this? -- Karabell
New York Mets
Juan Soto over 37.5 home runs (+110)
Soto hit three homers in April, six in May, then crushed 11 in June before swatting three more so far in July. One can argue that Soto's big June is skewing his overall total of 23 long balls, but the underlying metrics indicate that he was shortchanged over the first two months of the season. Not to mention, the weather suppressed power over the first half. Also, keep in mind that while Citi Field is a pitcher's park; that's in terms of runs. It does slightly inflate home runs. Soto might not match last season's total of 18 post-break homers, but he needs only 15 to cash the over. -- Zola
Washington Nationals
MacKenzie Gore to lead MLB in strikeouts (+10000)
Only one pitcher this season has thrown at least 160 curveballs, sliders and changeups and generated better than 40% whiff rates with each pitch type. That pitcher is Gore. Oh, and he averages better than 95 mph with his fastball. Certainly a pitcher with that kind of skill set (and one who entered the All-Star break with a top-five overall strikeout total) warrants better than 9.1% implied odds in this category? -- Cockcroft
Miami Marlins
Agustin Ramirez to win the NL Rookie of the Year (+1000)
This race remains wide open, but Ramirez's performance, which has played a massive role in the Marlins' recent hot spell (20 wins over their final 31 games to conclude the first half), deserves much more attention than it has received. He's second among rookies in home runs (14) and isolated power (.228) and fourth in expected wOBA (.355). And he has done this despite calling one of the majors' worst hitting environments his home. -- Cockcroft
Milwaukee Brewers
To make the playoffs (-140)
With the debut of Jacob Misiorowski, the return of Brandon Woodruff and the looming return of Nestor Cortes, the Brewers rotation is looking quite formidable. The Cubs are probably not quite as good as they've played to this point, and there's an outside shot Milwaukee wins the division. Even if it means settling for a wild-card spot, THE BAT X projects Milwaukee with a 65% chance of making the playoffs in some capacity -- and the current price indicates only a 58% chance would make this a good bet. -- Carty
St. Louis Cardinals
Over 83.5 regular-season wins (-115)
The Cardinals are one of baseball's biggest surprises, currently sitting just 1.5 games out of the final NL wild-card spot. It is very tempting to bet on them making the playoffs (+220). However, they'll need to pass two teams out of the San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres and Mets to do so, which is a big ask. However, claiming 33 more wins over 67 games is reasonable. The Cardinals have a veteran staff benefiting from the reduced travel on fly balls. If the team continues to avoid injuries, I may regret not going with the playoff bet. -- Zola
Chicago Cubs
To be NL's No. 1 seed (+700)
The Cubs are the clear favorites to win the NL Central, so those odds generally don't align for a massive payday. This one, however, has a strong payoff for one that's not completely absurd. These are 12.5% implied odds for a team that has a better staff ERA, more defensive runs saved than the No. 1-seed favorite Los Angeles Dodgers -- not to mention a runs-per-game average within a quarter of a run of that Shohei Ohtani-led offense. The Cubs, too, have one of the league's easiest second-half schedules, with only one series remaining (vs. the Mets, during the season's final week) against the league's top-five teams in terms of winning percentage. -- Cockcroft
Cincinnati Reds
Chase Burns to win the NL Rookie of the Year (+2000)
I don't understand the huge odds gap between Burns and NL ROY favorite Jacob Misiorowski (+150). This implies the Brewers pitcher has a 40% chance of taking home the hardware, while Burns has just a 4% chance. The two profile extremely similarly -- high velocity, excellent stuff -- and Misiorowski only beat Burns to the majors by a week. Plus, Burns has the better control. Given the enormous odds gap, sign me up for a splash of Burns action. -- Carty
Pittsburgh Pirates
Under 65.5 wins (-105)
My colleagues make compelling arguments as to why Skenes might not win the NL Cy Young. So, at just -120 odds, let's fade the NL's Midseason Classic starting pitcher. The Pirates played .402 ball before the break. They'll need to finish at a .431 clip to eclipse 65 wins. Yes, the Pirates have the pitching to do it, but they're averaging the fewest runs per game in baseball and there isn't much optimism that those bats will improve. -- Zola
Los Angeles Dodgers
Under 101.5 wins (-135)
The Dodgers were projected for fewer wins than this in the preseason (around 98), and THE BAT X has them currently on pace for just 98.7 wins. They'll potentially be getting some reinforcements in the second half in the form of Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, but they're still dealing with a large number of injuries, and triple-digit wins is a tall order for any team. Los Angeles is the best team in baseball, but I think that reputation is baked too hard into this line, just as it was in the preseason when this was set all the way up at 104.5. That number has come down some, but I'll still take the under here. -- Carty
San Diego Padres
Luis Arraez to lead MLB in hits (+2500)
Arraez is the MLB hits and batting average leader since the beginning of 2023. He's also a player who has had 200-plus hits in both of the past two seasons. That's why he is as good a long shot bet as anyone in baseball. He continues to make contact at a historic pace, and his past history of lengthy torrid streaks in the category could help him quickly make up ground in the race, where he currently sits 23 hits behind Aaron Judge. -- Cockcroft
Arizona Diamondbacks
Eugenio Suarez over 45.5 home runs (-105)
Taking the over here is dangerous since an injury can derail Suarez's second half. However, he's on pace for 52 round-trippers, so there's a buffer. The key is that Suarez is deserving of his pre-break total of 31 big flies. His xHR is 31 and he's fully supported by the underlying metrics, specifically an increased Barrel% and a strikeout rate that has dropped for the third straight season. If Suarez keeps his current pace, he makes the over easily. It's always nice to have a cushion. -- Zola
San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb to win the NL Cy Young (+2000)
Webb's 3.6 WAR currently sits just a hair below Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes' league-leading 3.9 WAR. Skenes is the younger, more exciting player, but -140 odds? No thanks. Give me Webb, who is still in the thick of the race for most wins and best ERA. He's thrown more innings than any other contender, but his durability gives him a leg up on the other contenders -- any of whom could fall out of the race due to injury. Webb was priced around this level at the start of the year and, despite a fantastic season, we're somehow still here. -- Carty
Colorado Rockies
Over 40.5 regular-season wins (-125)
The Rockies were anything but awesome in June, but they still won 10 games -- more than four other teams -- as several hitters emerged to join Hunter Goodman as lineup fixtures (Thairo Estrada, Tyler Freeman and Mickey Moniak). Plus, several starting pitchers and the bullpen performed better (German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Victor Vodnik). Nobody thinks the Rockies are playoff bound, but it will not take much to get them to 41 wins. -- Karabell