Excitement for the 2025 MLB regular season is growing by the day. Fans will get their first taste of regular season baseball on March 18 as the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers take on the Chicago Cubs in Tokyo. For the other 28 teams, they'll have to wait for March 27 and 28 to see their players on the diamond in games that count.
Games will be won, home runs will be hit, and bases will be stolen. Predicting which familiar faces and new favorites will shine in 2025 is no easy task, but our team is up to the challenge. Todd Zola, Derek Carty, Eric Karabell and Tristan H. Cockcroft offer up one prop bet for each MLB team this season.
Odds are accurate as of time of writing. For latest odds on these and other bets, go to ESPN BET.
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American League
New York Yankees
To make the playoffs: No (+280)
"But Derek! The Yankees are great! They went to the World Series last year! They won 94 games!" Sure did. But this is about looking forward, and probability and price. +280 means they need just a 26% chance to miss the playoffs for this to have value. They lost Juan Soto, their roster is weaker than last season, they're relying on a number of aging veterans, and their division has four legitimate playoff contenders (not to mention three in the AL West to join the wild-card battle). My forecasting system (THE BAT X) projects a 44% chance of the Yankees missing the playoffs, so the value is there if you can stomach the ugliness of it. -- Carty
Baltimore Orioles
Gunnar Henderson to win American League MVP (+750)
Aaron Judge of the Yankees is the favorite, followed by Kansas City's Bobby Witt Jr. Henderson is tied with Yordan Alvarez of the Astros as the third-most likely to be the AL MVP. This pick is predicated on the Orioles winning the AL East, which is plausible considering that Yankees pitching is already dealing with injuries and the bottom half of their order is suspect. Witt leading the Royals to the AL Central crown would be an achievement, but not as impressive as Baltimore claiming the AL East. As a player, Henderson checks all of the boxes. His quality of contact and sprint speed are elite, plus he plays solid defense at an elite position. -- Zola
Boston Red Sox
Jarren Duran to steal 40 or more bases (+300)
Last season, the Red Sox's 144 steals were the most they've recorded since ... wait for it ... 1908. With Alex Cora at the helm, the Red Sox tend to run more when they're ahead, and they're projected to be better than last season. In 2024, Duran swiped 34 bags in 41 tries. He notched nine steals each in April, June and August, but registered three or fewer in the other three months. More consistency and a winning atmosphere should propel Duran to his first 40-plus-stolen-base season. -- Zola
Tampa Bay Rays
Junior Caminero to hit 30 or more HR (+225)
The Rays are a tough read on the betting front this season, with the move from pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field to the outdoor George M. Steinbrenner Field. Their status in a top-to-bottom competitive division makes bets on their playoff prospects a tougher sell. As their new venue is expected to be much more hitter-friendly than their former one (especially in the power department), embrace the prospective park factor volatility with a top-shelf power prospect in Caminero. These odds imply he has a 31% chance at reaching the 30-HR threshold, which is good value. -- Cockcroft
Toronto Blue Jays
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. regular-season hits leader (+1600)
THE BAT X projects Vlad Jr. for the third-most hits in MLB this season, just four hits behind Bobby Witt Jr. (+700) and one behind Luis Arraez (+600). I'm not one for narratives, but given the big relative discount we're getting on him (and considering he'll be playing for a monster free agent contract after the season), this one looks like clear value to me. -- Carty
Cleveland Guardians
Carlos Santana under 19.5 home runs (+100) (Caesars)
Santana has gone over this total in two straight years, but he turns 39 in April and is likely due for an age-related falloff. Even if the rate production remains, all it takes is one injury for this bet to become a massive favorite. Plus, the rate production is hardly a sure thing given his average-to-below-average Statcast power metrics. THE BAT X projects a mean of only 15 homers. -- Carty
Kansas City Royals
Bobby Witt Jr. to lead MLB in stolen bases (+1600)
Witt is just one season removed from a 49-steal campaign, and THE BAT X projects him to have the third-most stolen bases this year. His sprint speed remains in the 100th percentile, and he's simply a better hitter -- and better at getting on base -- than a lot of the other speedsters. If you're looking to make a bet on steals, the odds here look best to me. -- Carty
Detroit Tigers
Kerry Carpenter over 20.5 home runs (-115)
Carpenter launched 18 home runs in 87 games and 293 plate appearances last season, and he has hit 38 blasts over 752 plate appearances the past two years. He slugged .631 versus right-handed pitching in 2024. Sure, Carpenter struggles to stay on the field and hitting lefties is an issue for him, but a 30-homer option lurks. -- Karabell
Minnesota Twins
Pablo Lopez to win the American League Cy Young (+1800)
The durable Lopez has logged the seventh-most games started and innings since 2022. Over that three-year span, he's posted the 16th-best xFIP and 13th-best SIERA of all qualified pitchers, so it wouldn't take much luck for him to be among the AL ERA leaders. While it's true that three other AL Central teams made the playoffs last season, that was in large part due to how many games they all played against the historically bad White Sox -- and Chicago is not going to suddenly be great in 2025. Yes, Tarik Skubal and just about everyone in the Mariners' rotation are better pitchers, but there is a plausible path for Lopez to win this prize. -- Zola
Chicago White Sox
Noah Schultz to win American League Rookie of the Year (+6000)
Schultz is one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Last season, the White Sox monitored the workload of the 6-foot-9 southpaw, limiting him to just 88⅓ innings over 23 minor league starts. They'll still be careful with the 21-year-old, but the reins should be loosened. There is no one in the projected rotation blocking Schultz, so if he can make his MLB debut any time in the first half of the season, he'll be in the Rookie of the Year conversation. At these odds, why not take a shot? -- Zola
Houston Astros
Yordan Alvarez over 34.5 home runs (-115)
Any bet against Alvarez is a bet against him staying healthy, which is an understandable instinct considering he has made three trips to the IL over the past three seasons alone, missing an average of 30 games per year. A healthy Alvarez would have hit the over in two of those three years and missed it by only 2.5 homers in the third, all of which had come during the prime years of his career. The Astros plan to give him more days at DH, which might help keep him on the field more. Nearly every projection system has Alvarez clearing this number, and since his raw power metrics place him among the best in all of baseball, I'd go even further and advise those who prefer bolder bets that Alvarez As the MLB Home Run Leader (+1800) provides excellent betting potential as well. -- Cockcroft
Seattle Mariners
Cal Raleigh to win American League MVP (+7500)
THE BAT X projects Raleigh for the ninth-highest WAR in the AL this year. The biggest issue is that much of his value is tied to his elite defense at the toughest position on the diamond, which is something voters have not traditionally valued as highly as perhaps they should. We do have additional outs if his bat takes another step forward or perhaps most promisingly, if the looming specter of "robo umps" brings pitch framing into the mainstream conversation. We'll see if voters are paying more attention to framing by the end of the season. -- Carty
Texas Rangers
Jacob deGrom regular-season strikeout leader (+3000)
Only Garrett Crochet (priced as the second-most likely to win at +700) projects for a higher K% in THE BAT X than deGrom. Of course, deGrom hasn't surpassed 100 innings since 2019, having undergone two Tommy John surgeries, but health is notoriously tricky to project. He's two years removed from his most recent Tommy John and all he has to do for his price to immediately jump to the front of the pack is to stay healthy. I think we're being given too much of a discount for all the uncertainty. -- Carty
Athletics
Brent Rooker regular season home run leader (+2500)
Rooker has blasted 69 home runs over the past two seasons, playing half of his games in Oakland's very spacious pitcher's park. However, he hit 41 of those home runs (59%) in road games. Rooker and his teammates don't have to deal with Oakland's stadium again, as they will call Sutter Health Park -- Sacramento's very hitter friendly Triple-A stadium -- their home for 2025. A healthy Rooker may hit 50 blasts in 2025. -- Karabell
Los Angeles Angels
Yusei Kikuchi to record 200 or more strikeouts (+260)
Any bet on Mike Trout is a risk, given his injury history. With that in mind, let's go with the safer route of Kikuchi punching out at least 200 hitters for the second straight season. He set career highs with 175⅔ innings and 206 strikeouts last season, splitting time with the Blue Jays and Astros. Kikuchi was especially solid in Houston, where he took a tick off the speed of both his changeup and curve, ultimately increasing the effectiveness of all of his pitches. The Astros are adept at making tweaks of that nature, so hopefully the Angels recognize the improvement and follow suit. Additionally, Angel Stadium is one of the league's best venues for strikeouts. -- Zola
National League
Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola over 172.5 strikeouts (Even)
Well, not every bet must return a windfall. Nola whiffed 197 hitters last season, and he surpassed 200 strikeouts in each of the prior five full seasons. Worried about durability? Nola has pitched the most innings in baseball since 2018. You may not get a sub-3.50 ERA, but the innings and strikeouts are reliable. -- Karabell
Atlanta Braves
Matt Olson over 32.5 home runs (-110)
The Braves were struck by inexplicably harsh luck on the hitting side last season. Even in what was a markedly down year for Olson, he fell just 3.5 homers shy of this very number. In each of his four prior complete MLB seasons, he cleared it with ease. The only major projection system that has Olson hitting fewer homers is PECOTA (30), and bear in mind the somewhat conservative nature of projection models: all of the big ones have him playing no more than 155 games, but Olson has MLB's longest active consecutive games played streak (620).Both Olson and the Braves should enjoy greater fortunes in 2025. -- Cockcroft
New York Mets
Francisco Lindor for National League MVP (+2000)
Lindor isn't even the MVP favorite on his own team. Those honors go to Juan Soto (+550). Trusting player prop bets for Mets hitters is a slippery slope since Citi Field suppresses offensive production. Lindor has proved he can put up numbers in Queens, as he has averaged 32 homers and 30 steals over the past two seasons. He plays good defense at a premium position, and if the Mets do come away with the NL East, Lindor could get some sentimental MVP votes as well as those earned via stellar play. -- Zola
Washington Nationals
CJ Abrams to record 40 or more stolen bases (+150)
Abrams swiped 47 bags in 2023, so this wouldn't be the first time he'd notch at least 40 steals. Last season ended on a sour note for Abrams, as he was demoted to Triple-A for disciplinary reasons. However, the team still feels he's a huge part of the future, and it has already named him leadoff hitter. Abrams may well play this season with a chip on his shoulder ... in a good way. More desire should translate to more running. -- Zola
Miami Marlins
Sandy Alcantara to win National League Cy Young (+2500)
Alcantara won the NL Cy Young award in 2022, posting a 2.28 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP, and a league-leading 228⅔ IP. He missed last season after Tommy John surgery, but he looked terrific in his spring debut, throwing strikes and hitting 99 mph. There are no innings restrictions here. Alcantara may return to his high level of pitching, and a potential midseason trade may help improve his chances at taking home this hardware (provided, of course, he doesn't switch leagues). -- Karabell
Milwaukee Brewers
Brice Turang to record 40 or more stolen bases (+110)
Last year, Turang stole 50 bases. A 20% drop in production is still 40 steals, which provides a decent buffer. In 2024,the Brewers were second in MLB with 217 steals, and since they didn't upgrade their power, they'll likely be aggressive on the basepaths again. Last year, Turang led off 86 times. He's slated to do so again this season against right-handers, which could result in well over 100 games at the top of the lineup. Maybe Turang doesn't repeat his 89% success rate, but we have plenty of room to absorb some regression and still be successful at least 40 times. -- Zola
St. Louis Cardinals
Sonny Gray for National League Cy Young (+3500)
While Gray is a long shot for the NL Cy Young, he does have a pair of top-three AL Cy Young finishes on his ledger, including a second-place finish in 2023. This choice hopes that Gray is traded to a contender (preferably in the NL). However, even if he isn't, there is much less team context considered with the Cy Young as opposed to the MVP. Busch Stadium is a good pitchers' park and the lineups in the NL Central are not daunting. Gray is entering his age-35 season, but has averaged 175 IP over the past two seasons, which is more than enough in today's landscape to be included in the Cy Young conversation. -- Zola
Chicago Cubs
Matt Shaw for National League Rookie of the Year (+450)
In 2024, Shaw posted an .867 OPS over 523 PA at two minor league stops, with 21 home runs and 31 stolen bases. The Cubs have gifted him the 2025 starting third-base job. Shaw boasts power, speed and plate discipline, and he should be a key in Chicago's lineup. NL rookie betting leader Roki Sasaki is an injury risk, so I'd take Shaw. -- Karabell
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz for National League MVP (+1800)
Let's dream of the Reds taking the winnable NL Central. In this scenario, De La Cruz would be in the spotlight and the league would love to have him be their face. Of course, writers do the voting, but most would be looking for a reason to cast their ballot for De La Cruz. There is no denying his talent, with power and speed to burn. He just needs to cut down on his strikeouts for his batting average to be palatable to voters. To that end, De La Cruz adjusted his stance in the offseason, with the hope of increasing contact. Reports like this are a dime a dozen, but when they surround someone with De La Cruz's raw talent, it could be more news than noise. -- Zola
Pittsburgh Pirates
Oneil Cruz over 23.5 home runs (-115)
THE BAT X projection system, which incorporates Statcast data, sees Cruz ending up with 28 home runs. That's far higher than other projection systems that focus more on a player's surface stats. A discrepancy like this indicates that this line is underselling Cruz's true talent level. His bat speed, Barrels, exit velocity and every other power metric is at the very top of the charts. Plus, there is plenty of evidence that Cruz was very unlucky on contacted balls in 2024. Lucky for us! -- Carty
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts to win National League MVP (+1200)
Everyone wants to bet Shohei Ohtani (+145), but if he gets hurt, ends up being unable to pitch much, or simply has a down season, Betts projects as the next best player on the best team in baseball. THE BAT X projects Ohtani for 6.1 hitting WAR and Betts for 5.8 WAR. Juan Soto (+550) is also in the mix with 6.5 WAR, but the price on Mookie here is clearly out of line. -- Carty
San Diego Padres
Dylan Cease to lead MLB in strikeouts (+1600)
In this age of dwindling pitching workloads, finding the right combination of volume and elite "swing-and-miss" stuff is often the key to winning in this particular category. Cease is one of only seven pitchers to have faced at least 700 batters in each of the past four seasons. His 29.7% K rate over that stretch ranks ninth among pitchers with at least 1,500 IP. The younger flamethrowers bring more volume risk, while this price is fantastic for 180 innings and 200 strikeouts in the bank. -- Cockcroft
Arizona Diamondbacks
To win National League West (+1000)
OK, hear me out for a second. Sure, the Dodgers have already been widely crowned as 2025 World Series champions, but remember the old saying, "That's why they play the games"? Injuries could strike, as the team's 2024 rotation absences demonstrated. That squad finished four wins below most of the preseason projections and was ultimately mired in an unexpected divisional battle right up until the final week of the season. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, did well by bringing in Corbin Burnes and Josh Naylor and have one of baseball's more well-rounded rosters. This pick is entirely about value, and in the Diamondbacks' case, they're both a universally projected 85-plus-win team and the one with the longest division-title odds among those forecasted for that many wins. -- Cockcroft
San Francisco Giants
Logan Webb to lead MLB in wins (+2500) (Caesars)
Webb gets docked for playing on a team with a merely average offense but one of the biggest drivers of wins is durability and length. Webb has always been the picture of health and goes deeper into games than almost any pitcher in baseball. THE BAT X projects him in to finish in a virtual tie for second in wins with five other pitchers whose odds are mostly around +1000. The relative lack of offensive support is overbaked into this price. -- Carty
Colorado Rockies
Team to record the fewest wins in the regular season (+250)
The public perception is that the White Sox are far and away the worst team in baseball after coming off a historically bad 40-win season in 2024. However, THE BAT X projects Colorado for just 0.8 wins more than Chicago, and FanGraphs also projects the gap between the two teams as being less than a win. PECOTA, shockingly, has Colorado projected for seven fewer wins. Look, both these teams will be bad, but there's nowhere near as big a gap as the odds indicate: -210 for Chicago or +250 for Colorado? This is an easy call. -- Carty