Baseball is unique in many ways.
It's the only one of the "major" team sports that doesn't end with a clock reaching 0:00. It's the only game where each play begins with the defense in control, and it's the sole competition without a uniformly sized playing field. Sure, the placement of the bases and pitching mound are defined, but otherwise, ballparks come in various shapes and sizes, some indoors, some fully exposed to the elements, and are located all over the continent in an array of climates and at various altitudes.
How all of these parks play relative to each other can be quantified over time and the effect incorporated into the hitter and pitcher projections that are key to preparing for your fantasy baseball drafts. But what happens when a team plays in new surroundings? Without any historical data to lean on, we have to apply what we know about the various influences on how a park plays. Some of this is mathematical, but it also entails using logic and intuition.
Several teams will be dealing with the challenge of either moving to a new stadium or having their current home undergo renovations in 2025.
Due to the devastating impact of Hurricane Milton on Tropicana Field, the Tampa Bay Rays will play their 2025 home games at George Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, Florida, the New York Yankees' spring training venue as well as the home of the Low-A Tampa Tarpons.
The Athletics have moved on from Oakland, California, but are still a few years away from having a viable venue in Las Vegas. They will play their 2025 home schedule in West Sacramento at Sutter Health Park, sharing the yard with the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats.
Baltimore's Camden Yards will be readjusting its left-field walls, lessening the impact of alterations made to the stadium dimensions prior to the 2022 season.
While the playing dimensions have not been altered, Cleveland's Progressive Field and Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles have both undergone renovations, with some changes in the stands potentially altering wind direction and force.
What influences park factors?
Before we delve into the specifics of each of the new or changed venues we need to evaluate for 2025, let's first talk about some of the elements that determine how an individual park plays.
1. Outfield fences
This is the first change questioned when a team moves or has a park renovated. While the impact of a change in any fence's distance from home plate is expected, the height of the fence is an underappreciated component. In 2018, the yellow line denoting a home run on the right-field wall in Angels Stadium was lowered by 10 inches. Even though the wall itself did not move, the venue has since flipped from being one that used to suppress left-handed power to one that greatly assists it.
2. Foul territory
A lot of foul territory benefits pitchers. Sometimes it's not the acreage that matters, but the placement. For example, Citizens Bank Park doesn't have an inordinate amount of foul territory, but its placement consistently generates a high number of foul outs every season. Every venue has a horizontal wall behind home plate so errant pitches bounce straight back. The horizontal wall in Citizens Bank Park is longer than most, generating more foul ground behind home plate. In addition, there is more foul territory over the shoulder of the first baseman and third baseman -- areas where a lot of foul pops are directed.
3. The batter's eye and lighting
The batter's eye is the area directly behind the pitcher that is in the line of sight of hitters. These areas are not uniform between parks. Some teams make it easier (or harder) for the batter to pick up the ball and recognize spin as it leaves the pitcher's hand. Lighting can be a factor as well. One example is Fenway Park, where there is a tarpaulin placed over a section of bleacher seats in straight-away center field for day games only. The preponderance of fans wearing white shirts in the daytime, combined with the glare of the sun, rendered it difficult to pick up the white baseball. This issue doesn't exist for evening affairs, so the team allows fans to buy tickets for those seats.
4. Temperature
Baseballs tend to travel more in less dense air due to reduced resistance. The higher the temperature, the less dense the air.
5. Humidity
It may seem counterintuitive since humidity involves water, and humid air often "feels heavy" especially at elevated temperatures. However, water vapor is actually less dense than the molecules it displaces. Additionally, warmer air can actually hold more water vapor.
6. Wind
Wind has been messing with baseballs since the first pitch was ever thrown. However, it's only recently that Statcast has begun to quantify the effect. It goes beyond the focus of this discussion, but for those interested in a deeper dive, check out this article by MLB.com's Mike Petriello.
7. Altitude
Air thins (and becomes less dense) the higher it is above sea level. And keep in mind that thinner air doesn't affect only batted balls. A fastball reaches the plate a little faster in less dense air, while high-spin offerings are not as effective when there is less air inducing movement.
2025's new venues
Steinbrenner Field
The Rays will be playing their 2025 home games in a minor league park that was designed to replicate Yankee Stadium's dimensions, so we have a workable foundation for our calculations. Yankee Stadium significantly amplifies left-handed home runs while also benefiting righty long balls, albeit to a lesser extent.
The latent effect is that the venue suppresses hits, which in turn renders the park neutral for scoring. The short porch in right field influences how outfielders can be deployed, reducing the number of fly ball hits.
Unsurprisingly, it is much warmer in Florida, especially in April. However, the Rays won't be playing many April home games, lessening that impact. Still, based on temperature, Steinbrenner Field should favor homers more than Yankee Stadium. How it influences hits (and runs) is less obvious.
Direction obviously matters, but these numbers are close enough to call it a wash. Additionally, both venues sit just above sea level, so atmospheric pressure is also a wash.
This is more subjective, but Rays hurlers benefited from (and are used to) working indoors, which helped them stay in a routine. Playing outside, with the constant threat of rain delays, could disrupt their preparation.
The verdict
As will be the case for all the venues, the following calculations take into account that only half of a team's games will be played at home. However, these projections are for the full season.
In other words, a left-handed batter projected to hit 30 homers for the season while playing 81 games at Tropicana Field would be expected to hit 33.9 homers with Steinbrenner Field as his home field.
Brandon Lowe, Jonathan Aranda and Josh Lowe -- all lefty swingers -- should benefit the most. On the other side of the ball, be more cautious streaming Rays pitchers at home.
Sutter Health Park
The Athletics will play in West Sacramento while their new home in Las Vegas is being constructed. Their former park was consistently one of the best pitching parks in the game, while their temporary digs check in as the most pitcher-friendly park in the Pacific Coast League (PCL). This could lead the casual observer to believe that the Athletics will continue to play half of the time in a pitcher-friendly environment, but that would be wrong.
Park factors need to be compared to other venues in the same league. Say you were to set up a new league playing only in the top 10 hitters' ballparks in MLB. The best pitchers' park in this hypothetical league would be the one currently ranked 21st overall for pitchers in MLB.
The PCL is one the most hitter-friendly leagues in baseball, with most of the 10 venues situated in hot climates and/or at high elevation. Sutter Health Park is not pitcher-friendly. Period. It's simply not as hitter-friendly as its contemporary venues.
While Steinbrenner Field was purposely designed to mimic Yankee Stadium, Sutter Health Park's dimensions serendipitously come quite close to the Oakland Coliseum. The Coliseum crushed lefty and righty power while dinging batting average a little more for left-handers. The venue was never the absolute best for pitchers, but it was routinely a top-eight pitchers' park.
The Coliseum had a vast expanse of foul ground -- much more than Sutter Health Park. The new conditions favor batting average across the board and, to a lesser extent, homers as well since at-bats will be extended when foul balls that would have been caught end up in the stands instead.
The batter's eye in Oakland is rated about average, although some feel it generated some optical illusions since the Coliseum was also used for football and had a much higher seating capacity than other ballparks. In Sacramento, there is a typical "high wall" (characteristic of many minor league parks) situated a few feet beyond the center-field fence.
Sacramento is much warmer than Oakland during the day, especially later in the season. However, the nighttime temperatures are similar, even favoring Oakland during the summer months.
Looking at the Athletics' 2025 home schedule, their first three Saturday home games will be played during the day, and they have two scheduled Sunday afternoon games every month. Those Saturday matinees will take place before it begins to heat up. It appears the aggregate game-time temperature in Sacramento will be a bit warmer, but not appreciably so given that most games will be contested under the lights.
Sacramento is less humid, due to its inland location. As such, there is a bit less carry in the Athletics' temporary new home.
The "bay effect" predictably increases wind currents in Oakland. According to the Statcast wind data over the past two seasons, wind added a league-leading 12 homers in the Coliseum (21 gained, 9 lost) -- which was unusual because in most venues, more wind actually lowers home run totals. Don't expect this anomaly to continue in Sacramento.
The verdict
Less foul territory and a more favorable batter's eye should help hitting in Sutter Health. Any temperature difference might point to some increased hitter performance on Sundays and in night affairs for the first half of the season. However, humidity and wind factors should put a cap on any uptick in success for hitters.
The ESPN fantasy projections point to increased power across the board relative to Oakland, but overall, it will still be below the MLB average. The venue will be graded as neutral for runs.
Again, something to keep in mind for betting, props and DFS is that Sutter Health Park will play much differently during the day than at night. Sunday afternoon affairs will see far higher temperatures and will increase homers relative to the rest of the week.
With respect to individual players, the impact should be uniform. However, Brent Rooker is discounted because he begins the season only eligible at DH. Last year, a sore arm prevented him from playing defense. He's expected to appear regularly in the outfield for 2025, so it shouldn't be long before he unclogs the utility spot. It's well worth accepting the discount for Rooker, which is accentuated due to the improved hitting conditions.
Camden Yards
The analysis here is much less stringent as it involves comparing how the park played before the 2022 left-field renovation to how it has played since. According to Statcast, "Walltimore" cost the Orioles 72 homers over the past three seasons, while shorting visitors 65 dingers.
The change shouldn't affect batting average too much, but it should slightly reduce the number of fly ball hits since left fielders will be able to play a bit closer to the infield and still track down fly balls hit over their head.
The verdict
Anthony Santander lost more home runs than anyone, but he's now in Toronto. Of the holdover Orioles, right-handed hitters Ryan Mountcastle and Jordan Westburg will benefit most from the left-field renovation. Newcomer Tyler O'Neill also won't be complaining about the shorter fences. Expect some upgrade in power from all three of these bats.
Other venues to monitor
There have been several examples of wind patterns being altered without changes to the dimensions of the park itself.
Back in 1989, the addition of the "600 Club" atop the stands behind home plate in Fenway Park blocked some of the wind that had previously helped fly balls to soar over the Green Monster. Expansion of the area surrounding Petco Park in San Diego after it was constructed altered the wind effect in the ballpark. Also, a couple of years ago, closing some portholes in the right-field wall in Oracle Park changed the way the strong San Francisco wind swirled.
Both the Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Dodgers have announced some modifications to improve the fan experience entering the 2025 season. Even though they're not doing anything to the playing field, there's a chance that wind currents in those parks could be modified.
There is nothing actionable here -- at least not yet. However, if either venue exhibits quirky trends, these changes could be part of an explanation. If that does happen, you're probably stuck with your fantasy players, but for betting and DFS purposes, there could be a way to get ahead of the curve.