As of the morning of Friday May 16, Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees is leading the American League in all three Triple Crown categories, with a .412 batting average, 15 home runs and 41 RBI. In terms of fantasy baseball, he sits at No. 1 in both total fantasy points scored as well as on the ESPN Player Rater (representing value in category-based leagues).
He also plays for the only team in the AL East over .500 and we know that when it comes to MVP arguments, players on teams that make the playoffs are often looked at more favorably. Yet, despite all of this, betting on Judge to win the AL's MVP award might not make a ton of sense.
Note: Odds are as of publication time. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET
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Why betting on Judge is a bad idea
David Purdum: Judge's odds to be the AL MVP reached -1,000 this week at ESPN BET, making the Yankees slugger an overwhelming favorite for this early in the season. By comparison, Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers is the MVP favorite in the National League at +185.
Going back to the American League, Bobby Witt Jr. is the second-favorite at 12-1. No other player has shorter MVP odds than 60-1. Judge's MVP odds have shortened significantly during his prolific start. After opening the season around 3-1, he entered May at -600, the shortest MVP favorite at this point of the season in at least the last five years, according to ESPN Research.
Judge's pricey odds have caused bettors to pause, before risking, for example, $1,000 to win just $100. At BetMGM sportsbooks, four players (Witt, Julio Rodriguez, Mike Trout and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) had attracted more MVP action than Judge. One sportsbook told ESPN that the action on Judge to win MVP has been "not so bad, since he's been a big favorite from the start."
Still, with Judge's odds too expensive for many bettors, we asked ESPN's betting and fantasy analysts to search for value in other candidates.
Why Alex Bregman could win
Eric Karabell: Bregman may not garner as much WAR or attention (especially in fantasy) as Judge or Witt, the Kansas City Royals' star shortstop, but we must consider narrative, because sometimes that is how awards are won. What if Bregman continues his monster campaign (his best since 2019) and, in his debut season in Boston, hits 30 home runs while contending for the AL batting title?
The overachieving Red Sox stunning all by winning the AL East would be a key part of this, too, but Bregman (75-1 odds) can only do so much. In a way, Bregman's MVP candidacy depends quite a bit on Jarren Duran, Trevor Story and Tanner Houck all performing up to their potential, too. Put it all together, though, and this narrative just may win out.
Why Tarik Skubal could win
Tristan H. Cockcroft: There hasn't been an AL MVP who was exclusively a pitcher in 14 years. However, the last time it happened, it was won by then Detroit Tigers ace Justin Verlander in the last season in which the Tigers won as many as 95 games.
This season, the Tigers are on pace to win -- you guessed it -- 95-plus games. Skubal, their ace, is on pace for a 7.0-WAR campaign, just one year after he managed 6.8 WAR and finished seventh in the MVP balloting. Skubal is also on pace for personal bests in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. He's easily the most valuable piece on what has been, surprisingly thus far, the AL's winningest team.
Betting against Judge is a hedge on his ability to stay healthy. After all, he has spent at least one month on the IL in four of the past seven seasons (excluding 2025). That only adds to why 100-1 odds on the defending Cy Young Award winner -- one whose metrics look even better this year than last -- is a worthwhile gamble.
Why Jose Ramirez could win
Todd Zola: Last season, the Cleveland Guardians won the AL Central crown, with Jose Ramirez finishing fifth in the AL MVP voting. Currently, the Detroit Tigers are -260 to dethrone the Guardians, with the Guardians and Minnesota Twins both checking in at +600. Even if Cleveland secures only a wild card, Ramirez should again be in the MVP mix.
Ramirez is currently at 100-1, tied with 26 others for seventh-best odds to be the AL MVP. Betting on Ramirez is essentially betting on the Guardians to make the playoffs. The difference between the +600 to win the AL Central and Ramirez's +10000 to be voted MVP is the driving force behind this bet.
As for Ramirez's production, we're just past the quarter mark of the season and he's on pace for an even better season than 2024 -- especially in batting average -- which should catch the voters' attention. This is more narrative-based than stats-driven, but Ramirez has been one of the league's most reliable and durable players for years. He's well-liked and respected in the game, which should curry favor with voters.