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NBA betting: Three bets that stand out for Sunday's playoff games

Donovan Mitchell is putting up plenty of shots, which should lead to a high-scoring game Sunday. Trevor Ruszkowski/Imagn Images

Sunday's NBA playoff slate features two games, with the Oklahoma City Thunder visiting the Denver Nuggets (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC) in Game 4 of their Western Conference second-round series and the Indiana Pacers hosting the Cleveland Cavaliers (8 p.m. on TNT) in the Eastern Conference.

Denver holds a 2-1 series lead but is a 6.5-point home underdog in Sunday's Mother's Day matinee. Cleveland is a 5.5-point road favorite on Sunday against the Pacers, who hold a 2-1 series edge.

The semifinals continue Monday with a doubleheader on ESPN. The Boston Celtics look to even their series with the New York Knicks in the first game of the night (7:30 p.m.), while the Minnesota Timberwolves head to Golden State Warriors (10 p.m.) with a 2-1 series lead.

Here are some of the bets that stand out for Sunday's games.

Odds are as of publication time. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET


Bets that stand out for Sunday

Michael Porter Jr. under 6.5 total rebounds + assists (+105)

This jumbo wing just delivered a stellar performance in a rousing Game 3 win for Denver. Why the fade? Porter revealed after that performance he's getting pregame injections in his shoulder and that the injury limits his ability to get physical. Friday's strong game signaled the first since Game 3 against the Clippers that MPJ collected at least seven combined rebounds and assists, with the injury playing a role in this pattern, per the player himself. I can envision an outcome that has Porter taking plenty of shots from beyond the arc, but without working the glass or passing lanes very much.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 7.5 assists (-130)

The Nuggets are sending extra attention to SGA in order to force his supporting cast to produce. The result has been a spike in potential and realized assists for the likely MVP; Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 15.9 potential assists in the playoffs and this leaps to nearly 21 per game for this series against Denver. Given this extreme passing volume, Gilgeous-Alexander appears prepared to hit this dimes prop in a must-win matinee for the Thunder.

Donovan Mitchell over 30.5 points (-120)

The return of Darius Garland helped open the floor for Mitchell in Game 3's epic offensive showing for the Cavaliers. Garland didn't consume many shots, but instead focused on organizing the offense to the benefit of his peers. Mitchell remains the scoring engine for Cleveland; confirmed by lofting 89 shots through the first three games of the series. The Pacers don't have the point-of-attack defenders needed to slow Mitchell's live dribble scoring prowess. With Mitchell's shooting volume pattern against the Pacers, volume should be on his side tonight.


Projections and injury reports

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET

Players in italics are available in a majority of ESPN Leagues


Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
3:30 p.m. ET on ABC

Line: Thunder -6.5 (-110) | Nuggets 6.5 (-110)
Money line: Thunder -250 | Nuggets +210
Total: 227.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 2.1, straight up 57%, 230.7 total points.

Injury Report:
Thunder: Nikola Topic, (OFS - Knee)
Nuggets: DaRon Holmes II, (OFS - Achilles)

Thunder projections:

Nuggets projections:


Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers
8 p.m. ET on TNT

Line: Cavaliers -5.5 (-105) | Pacers 5.5 (-115)
Money line: Cavaliers -210 | Pacers +175
Total: 230.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Cavaliers by 1.9, straight up 56%, 232.8 total points.

Injury Report:
Cavaliers: None reported
Pacers: Isaiah Jackson, (OFS - Achilles)

Cavaliers projections:

  • Donovan Mitchell, PG/SG: 45.0 FPTS (24.6 pts, 5.1 reb, 5.7 ast, 3.1 3PM)

  • Darius Garland, PG: 37.3 FPTS (19.2 pts, 3.3 reb, 6.5 ast, 2.6 3PM)

  • Evan Mobley, PF/C: 31.4 FPTS (16.4 pts, 9.1 reb, 3.4 ast, 1.7 blk)

  • De'Andre Hunter, SF/PF: 27.3 FPTS (16.0 pts, 4.3 reb, 2.2 ast, 2.1 3PM)

  • Jarrett Allen, C: 27.0 FPTS (12.9 pts, 9.1 reb, 2.1 ast)

  • Max Strus, SG/SF: 21.3 FPTS (8.9 pts, 4.3 reb, 3.2 ast, 2.0 3PM)

  • Dean Wade, PF: 16.0 FPTS (6.5 pts, 4.3 reb, 1.2 ast)

Pacers projections: