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          First bets: Early picks for NFL Week 18

          Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles might have something to play for in Week 18 against the New York Giants. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
          • ESPN
          Dec 30, 2024, 02:00 PM ET

          The final week of the 2024 NFL season is here, and while most of the playoff picture was solidified last week, there are still a few games on the Week 18 slate with playoff implications heading into wild-card weekend.

          The week kicks off on Saturday with an AFC doubleheader. First, Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens take on the Cleveland Browns, and the Ravens opened as the largest favorite on the slate at -14.5 over the Browns (4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). Then in the night game, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Pittsburgh to face Russell Wilson and the Steelers (8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC/ESPN+).

          The Sunday slate of games features two matchups that can decide both the NFC North and South divisions. In the early afternoon window, Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers look to clinch their division with a win over the New Orleans Saints. Then, the NFL regular season concludes with a showdown for the NFC North division and No. 1 seed in the playoffs between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings.

          Our team takes an early look at the odds to find value before lines move later in the week.

          All odds are accurate as of time stamp. For the latest odds go to ESPN BET.

          Joe Fortenbaugh's first bet: Philadelphia Eagles 1H (-2.5) vs. New York Giants

          Does Philadelphia really want to roll into the first round of the playoffs with Jalen Hurts having thrown just four passes in under four weeks' time? I wouldn't be surprised if head coach Nick Sirianni had his starters out there for a couple quarters just to get Hurts some live action before heading into the postseason. As for the Giants, they just played their Super Bowl in Week 17 via an ill-advised 45-33 win over Indianapolis. I think New York goes right back into the tank in Week 18 with a tropical vacation on the horizon. Bonus: Keep an eye out for Hurts under props.

          Seth Walder: Pat Surtain II to win Defensive Player of the Year (+140)

          I've never really been on board with T.J. Watt being the DPOY favorite as he has been for weeks, despite trailing other pass rushers in key metrics: Watt's 11.5 sacks is 2.5 off the lead and tied for fourth; he ranks 28th in the league with 34 pressures; and his 17% pass rush win rate ranks 16th. But a player who has been dominant at his position is Surtain. The Broncos cornerback has allowed 0.6 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is best among all outside corners with at least 200 coverage snaps. His 11% target rate ranks fourth-best and his negative-26 EPA allowed ranks second-best among that same group. While he didn't shut out Ja'Marr Chase (no one does) in Week 17, Surtain more than held his own, allowing just 27 yards as the nearest defender to Chase, despite lining up opposite him on 77% of his snaps. Most of Chase's production came when he was marked by someone else. To me, Surtain is a clear choice over Watt, and I'd bet the voters view it the same way.

          I would also sprinkle a little on Trey Hendrickson at 60-1, because when you can get the sack leader (with an outside chance to help his team get to the playoffs or at least have a huge Week 18 prime-time game) at 60-1... that surely is a value.

          Ben Solak: Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

          Last week: Texans under 20.5 team total points (-125). Texans lost to Ravens 34-10.

          Betting early into Week 18 is always tricky, as you must be aware of which teams have incentives to play and which teams will look to rest their starters. The Chargers will have a big incentive to win their Sunday game against the Raiders if the Steelers lose to the Bengals on Saturday, as a Chargers win would give them the No. 5 seed and a draw against the AFC South champion Houston Texans -- far preferable to a trip to Baltimore or Pittsburgh.

          I also imagine head coach Jim Harbaugh is going to play most of his starters, and even if he benches Justin Herbert, backup Taylor Heinicke will be the better of the two quarterbacks in this game. Harbaugh said when asked about sitting players in Week 18: "11 sounds better than 10," referring to the team's number of wins. I'm willing to buy the line now, as I get great value if the Steelers fall (Pittsburgh is a three-point home dog as of right now) and I still am getting a discount on the Chargers' starters against the Raiders if Harbaugh insists on keeping his players in for an otherwise meaningless game.

          Andre Snellings: Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos over 38.5 points

          Last week: Kansas City Chiefs-Pittsburgh Steelers under 42.5 points. Line closed at 45.5. Chiefs won 29-10

          While the Chiefs are likely to sit Patrick Mahomes this week to rest his mild high-ankle sprain, I notice that Chris Jones is also another likely sit candidate in addition to any other key personnel dealing with an injury. The Chiefs' identity this season has been their defense, but if Jones and potentially other starters sit, it could negatively affect their defense even more than their offense. As for the Broncos, despite their reputation as a defense-first team, Denver has been consistently playing in high-scoring games for months now. In fact, since the end of September, the only Broncos game that didn't go over 38.5 combined points was their 16-14 loss to the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 10. In their other 11 matchups in that stretch, they and their opponents have combined to average 50.1 PPG.

          Pamela Maldonado: Raiders (+5.5) vs. Chargers

          Last week: Seattle Seahawks-Chicago Bears, first half under 20.5 points. Seahawks won 6-3.

          Aidan O'Connell has emerged as a surprise star against the spread, crafting a 13-3 ATS record in his career -- a mark tied for the second-best start through 16 games by any quarterback in history. It's not just a trend; it's a testament to his knack for outperforming expectations, especially in the underdog role. Las Vegas has found some late-season fight, rattling off two straight wins to inject a bit of life into their 4-12 campaign.

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