On Tuesday, Terry Rozier was traded to the Heat for Kyle Lowry and a 2027 1st round pick.
Let's take an early look at how this deal affects both fantasy basketball and NBA betting outcomes for all involved.
Fantasy value dip in South Beach
Rozier was in the midst of the best statistical season of his career, on a career-high pace in minutes (35.5 MPG), scoring (23.2 PPG), distributing (6.6 APG) and field goal percentage (45.9 FG%). Rozier's volume was maximized in Charlotte in large part because teammate LaMelo Ball missed from late November until mid-January with an ankle injury after having had to miss the majority of last season with a similar injury.
Rozier was counted on to pick up the slack, and he did so with averages of 25.8 PPG (46.3 FG%, 90.6 FT%, 40.0 3P%), 7.5 APG, 4.0 RPG, 3.4 3PG and 1.3 SPG in 36.1 MPG during the 17 games Rozier played when Ball was out.
Things will be different for Rozier with the Heat, who already have three players averaging over 20 PPG and six averaging in double digits. The Heat play a more egalitarian brand of ball, and Rozier will have to fit into what they do more-so than going to get his at will.
While this could be a boon for Rozier's goals as an NBA player, increasing his odds of playing in the playoffs and having the chance to compete for championships, it likely depresses his fantasy hoops value.
In Miami, Rozier's volume could look more similar to how it looked in the 13 games he played with Ball this season: 19.8 PPG (45.2 FG%, 72.7 FT%), 5.3 APG, 3.8 RPG, 1.9 3PG and 0.8 SPG in 34.5 MPG.
What isn't clear is whether Rozier is the type that gets more efficient and has better defensive production when he's getting more touches, but in Miami he'll be asked to score more efficiently despite fewer touches. And with the defensive attention the other Heat require, Rozier should be able to get good looks, just fewer of them.
The other Heat starters could also see a dip in fantasy value, because Rozier is higher usage than Lowry at this stage in his career. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo could be impacted, but they are also the two main options and most dynamic players on the team. Tyler Herro and Jaime Jaquez Jr. are more reliant on scoring volume so could take a bigger hit.
Fantasy value up in Charlotte
The Hornets are a lottery bound team full of young players, so there is no viable role for a veteran like Kyle Lowry on the team. Adrian Wojnorowski reports the Hornets don't have an immediate plan to cut Lowry, and will instead try to flip his expiring deal in a separate trade before the Trade Deadline on Feb. 8. In the meantime, he projects to a low-minute, backup role behind Ball.
Effectively removing the high-volume Rozier from the Hornets should provide more opportunities for the other Hornets starters.
Ball already had the ultimate green light as a scorer/distributor, so his value may not change so much, but players like Miles Bridges and rookie Brandon Miller have shown they can be consistent 20+ PPG scorers with enough opportunities.
Betting ramifications
On paper, the Heat got stronger with this trade.
Rozier has an aggressive, bulldog mentality on the court that seemingly fits perfectly into Heat Culture. He also is a strong offense generator, on a team that has lacked sufficient punch to get over the championship hump in recent seasons. Rozier also has experience contributing to playoffs teams with his background playing on the Celtics.
According to ESPN BET, the Heat are +4000 to win the NBA title, +1500 to win the Eastern Conference and -260 to win the Southeast Division. There is not much value in the division bet, even if the Heat get better, since they only have a 1.5 game lead on the Magic and -260 odds isn't much juice.
The more interesting question is their odds to win the East. Though the Heat only have the sixth-best record in the Eastern Conference, they have shown in recent seasons that regular season record doesn't matter much when it comes to their playoffs performance.
The Heat have made the Eastern Conference Finals in three of the last four seasons, and the NBA Finals in two of the last four. If Rozier improves them at all, there could be value in the Heat winning the East at relatively long-shot odds.