Welcome to Week 14. We have exactly one spread within a field goal this week, as the Arizona Cardinals are 2.5-point favorites at home against the Seattle Seahawks in a game that could go along way in determining the fate of the NFC West. I don't have a lean on the side there, though I do like the total.
With six teams on a bye and a few matchups that looked stellar in the preseason but ended up being total duds (looking at you, Bengals and Cowboys), it's a bit of a quieter week. But that just means we can make money betting on Aidan O'Connell. What a treat.
Below are my 10 favorite plays for the upcoming weekend of NFL football.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
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Game picks | Props | Teaser and SGP
Game picks
Seahawks at Cardinals UNDER 44.5 total points (-110)
These teams played a 16-6 game just two weeks ago, with seven of the 22 total points the product of a Coby Bryant pick-six. For the Cardinals, that game was their worst on offense all season by both success rate and expected points added; for Seattle, it was more of an average day. But the Seahawks continue to be one of the worst teams in football in short-yardage situations (second-worst conversion rate on third/fourth and first) and in the red zone (third worst in scoring rate on red zone possessions), so they aren't any good at turning that decent offensive production into sustained drives and points.
The Cardinals are a tough defense for the Seahawks to face. They keep everything in front, make a lot of tackles and force you to build long drives. And for a team as mistake-riddled as Seattle, it's easy for the Seahawks to get behind the sticks. The Cardinals are also a complex defense with tons of designer blitzes, and the Seahawks will be starting sixth-round rookie right tackle Sataoa Laumea for his second career game against that tricky defense. Center Olu Oluwatimi, a second-year player, will be getting just his fifth career start.
The Cardinals should be able to pressure Geno Smith, something they did on 30% of his dropbacks in Week 12. But the Seahawks also did an excellent job getting pressure on Kyler Murray in that matchup, getting after him on 43% of his dropbacks and forcing him to go 4-for-13 on pressured pass attempts. Without a strong running game to stay ahead of the sticks -- Cardinals RBs rushed for 40 yards on 12 carries -- Arizona was forced into a heavy dropback game that isn't their identity on offense. The Seahawks have been an excellent run defense when healthy up front, and they enter this game with no major injury concerns
We shouldn't expect another 22-point sleeper. But these teams know each other well, and both of these offenses have severe limitations that the opposing defense can exploit.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 43.5 total points (-105)
Another divisional rematch from a recent contest. The Browns and Steelers played just 15 days ago: a 24-19 Browns win on "Thursday Night Football" in the snow. The scoring exploded late in that game -- it was 10-6 when the fourth quarter started -- as the blustering snow introduced sloppy play that helped the scoreboard. Big turnovers, slipping defenders and the like.
Well, there's no snow expected in Pittsburgh on Sunday, so don't expect the scoring to evaporate. Since Russell Wilson took over as the Steelers' starting quarterback, Pittsburgh is 5-1 to the over, averaging a cool 2.23 points per drive (which would be 10th in the league seasonlong). On the other side, in Jameis Winston's five games starting for the Browns, Cleveland is 4-1 to the over. Both quarterbacks hunt big plays, take risks with the football and are liable to commit turnovers. It's a recipe for points.
To that point: the Browns are now the worst defense against explosive plays, giving up a chunk gain on 14.2% of plays. They play a feast-or-famine style of defense that has been a little more famine this season than last, which plays right into the hands of a Steelers passing game that always wants chunk gains.
Pittsburgh's defense is giving up explosive gains on 12% of plays, the 11th-worst number, and now faces a quarterback in Winston who only knows big plays and hopes to get receiver Cedric Tillman back in the starting lineup. There's too much room for both of these passing games to pop off for a total as low as 43.5.
Bengals OVER 27.5 total team points (+100)
Though the Bengals' season might be over in terms of postseason, this team sure could use a win after all the frustrating losses. It's important to start watching out for quitting groups in December football, but that doesn't read like this Bengals team at all under Joe Burrow, especially when this might be the last month we see Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins all playing together.
The Bengals' offense has been an obvious juggernaut despite a 4-8 record. Even the running game has found its stride over the past month, which will be nice against a Cowboys run defense that continues to be one of the worst in football. Dallas has surrendered at least 28 points in five of its last seven games. Only the Falcons (who scored 27) and the Drew Lock-led New York Giants (20) failed to reach that mark.
The Bengals should have no issue moving the football, and given the struggles of their defense, we shouldn't expect them to sit on any lead and stop putting points on the board. I prefer the team total to the spread, out of concern for a Cowboys backdoor cover against this feeble defense, but I would prefer the spread at -5 over a total at 28.5, so make sure you get 27.5.
Player props
Cooper Kupp UNDER 69.5 receiving yards (-125)
Figuring out which Los Angeles Rams receiver to bet in which direction is a little bit like catching a falling knife, but I think a 70-yard line is just too tall for Kupp at this stage in his career. He's clearly the secondary target to Puka Nacua, who has out-targeted Kupp in four of the five games they've both started and finished since returning from injury.
Since Kupp got back from his injury, he has largely been used as an underneath target without much after-the-catch opportunity. In three of his six games, he has had less than three yards after the catch per reception, including last week when he had only one yard after the catch total on seven targets. In those same six weeks, Kupp has only three receptions longer than 20 yards, one of which was a 69-yard Cover-0 beater against the New England Patriots. He just is not generating explosive plays and must see -- and catch -- a high volume of targets to get up to this number.
Now he'll be facing a Buffalo Bills team that gives up only 1.37 yards per route run to receivers, second only to the Philadelphia Eagles as the lowest number in football. They have an excellent slot corner in Taron Johnson to handle Kupp when he kicks to the slot and a great outside corner duo in Rasul Douglas and Christian Benford who have the size and tackling chops to limit Kupp after the catch. Save for one of those 12-target games, which is always possible but increasingly unlikely given Nacua's emergence, it's just too tough for Kupp to get to this number.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 21.5 rush attempts (-115)
The question is pretty simple. Will the Philadelphia Eagles need 22 Saquon Barkley carries to beat the Carolina Panthers? I'd be surprised. Though Barkley tends to rack up the carries in the second half as the Eagles salt away games, the Panthers are so bad against the run -- dead last by success rate allowed -- that it shouldn't take many Barkley handoffs for the Eagles to walk their way down the field. This is also true through the air, as the non-Barkley runs should be effective enough for the Eagles' offense to pick up significant yardage without putting more mileage on their star running back.
Roll things forward to the second half, which the Eagles probably will be leading by multiple scores. Given how much volume Barkley has accumulated in recent weeks -- 26, 26 and 23 carries -- would you put another 20-plus game on his shoulders? The Eagles just finished a critical three-game stretch against the Washington Commanders, Los Angeles Rams and Baltimore Ravens. After this week, they get the Steelers and then the Commanders again. If there ever was a game to give Barkley a quasi-breather, it's this one.
I think we see a healthy dose of Kenneth Gainwell, especially in a second half that the Eagles lead, and enough offensive success through non-Barkley players that Barkley doesn't need to rack up wild volume. If he breaks a couple of big ones -- and we know he's liable to do that -- that will also cut down on his total carries number. Short of forced Barkley volume to fuel his MVP case, which feels like something head coach Nick Sirianni might
Aidan O'Connell 225+ passing yards (-130)
In a funny schedule quirk, O'Connell is chasing Bryce Young's schedule. Last week, he played the Kansas City Chiefs, one week after they played Young. This week, he gets the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, one week after they just faced Young. And while O'Connell isn't as quick or creative on the move as Young, he absolutely clears the Young bar of, "If Bryce Young can throw against these guys, anyone can."
In the two games O'Connell has started and finished this season, he has cleared 225 passing yards in both, with one coming against the Steelers, a remarkably stingier pass defense than the Chiefs (340 yards for O'Connell) or Buccaneers (30th in opponent EPA per dropback). The Buccaneers also see a higher pass rate over expectation from opposing offense than the average NFL defense, since they're so stingy against the run and so susceptible through the air.
We know the Raiders will have to drop back a ton when the early-down running game doesn't work, and we know that O'Connell is going to air it out no matter what. On 488 career dropbacks, O'Connell has a scramble rate of 0.0% -- and only a 6.1% sack rate to boot. I wouldn't be surprised if he shreds in garbage time while the Raiders are trailing by multiple scores, and I will be looking to take the over on his completions as well.
George Kittle OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-140)
After starting the season off great against tight ends, the Chicago Bears have struggled of late. They kept Sam LaPorta quiet on Thanksgiving, but before that they surrendered 114 yards to T.J. Hockenson, 64 yards to Austin Hooper and 77 to Zach Ertz. The absence of safety Jaquan Brisker has been notable, as has the Bears' poor run defense, leading to easier play-action fakes to tight ends up the middle of the field. On the season, the Bears are surrendering 1.57 yards per route run to tight ends, the ninth highest in football.
This creates a big opportunity for Kittle, who had the quietest game of his season last week, totaling only seven yards on two targets in the snow in Buffalo. He didn't leave the game with injury, either; he played 100% of the offensive snaps.
Reactivating Kittle will be a priority for a 49ers offense that is without Christian McCaffrey for the rest of the season, an absence that frees up several targets per game, especially in the underneath areas of the field. We could see a high-target game for Kittle in a one-score contest with the Bears on Sunday or we could see a characteristic explosive Kittle catch-and-run against one of the most susceptible big-play pass defenses in football. This is a great get-right spot.
Jonnu Smith OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-130)
I usually want to fade a player who has popped off as consistently as Smith has over the past month, but these lines are still too low for the player he has become in this passing offense. Opposing defenses still have to index their coverage toward Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, as even Smith's recent success is not as threatening as allowing open downfield space to the two Dolphins speedsters. Smith, like De'Von Achane before him, will continue to be the underneath benefactor of that defensive approach.
With checkdown volume and some designed touches in the screen game, Smith will inevitably break off a chunk catch-and-run. He's a great YAC threat and has been for his entire career. The New York Jets' defense has been worryingly poor in the effort and tackling columns since the firing of head coach Robert Saleh They're giving up 5.1 YAC per reception to tight ends this season, an above-average number, and that number jumps to 5.4 YAC per reception in the Jeff Ulbrich era.
Because we can get to this number on volume and on big plays, I prefer it to the receptions total, and I will take some alternate lines at 60+ and 70+ as well.
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)
6-pt teaser: Los Angeles Chargers +10/Minnesota Vikings pk (-116)
I continue to take any and all underdogs to the Chiefs in teaser legs, as the two-time defending Super Bowl champs are not equipped to win games by double-digits this season. I actually quite like the Chargers at +4 and on the moneyline as well and expected it to be one of my bets for this week, but that offense looked extremely rough against a bad Atlanta Falcons defense, and I'm worried the severe lack of juice in the J.K. Dobbins-less backfield is going to hamper this unit for the foreseeable future. So we'll play the cautious route and take the +10 here.
The Chargers' defense has been a little exposed in recent weeks as less than the
On the other end of the teaser, the Vikings get a home draw against a reeling Falcons team and the league's most inert quarterback, Kirk Cousins. The fact Cousins cannot minimize pressure with his legs in either drastic (escaping the pocket) or subtle (moving at all in the pocket) ways should create a field day for the Vikings' blitz-happy approach. On the other side of the ball, Vikings' quarterback Sam Darnold is still highly susceptible to pressure, and the Falcons have one of the lowest pressure rates among league defenses. This matchup leans heavily toward the Vikings.
SGP: Tennessee Titans moneyline, Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 17.5 total points, Calvin Ridley 80+ receiving yards
It's me, the moron who cannot stop betting on the Titans. When the Titans play
The Titans' defense struggled with the Commanders' offense last week, but that's a unique scheme Washington plays. In general, this has been one of the best defenses in football, and we should expect Tennessee to pressure Jones while blanketing a receiving room still absent Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis.
Ridley continues to be the primary receiver for the Titans, dominating in targets per route, yards per route and, critically, air yards per target (16.3 on the season and 19.5 when Will Levis is the passer). His potential to go off for huge games is always lurking, and the Jaguars' defense is liable to give up big performances to a WR1. I'll lean into the revenge game narrative here for Ridley against his old squad.