NFL betting: Under-the-radar props to bet in Week 14

We're betting to win.

And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:

1. A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally by my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

2. A less-efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense) and alternate lines. Less attention means less-efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.

Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or another. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.

Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.

Defensive player props

Maxx Crosby (LV) over 0.5 sacks (+140) (added 12/6)

I would run, not walk, to nab this sack over that I cannot imagine will last. I don't need to profess here how good of a player Maxx Crosby is, but I will: he has 7.5 sacks on the year and has a 21% pass rush win rate at edge that ranks eighth at the position. He also rarely comes off the field, so he gets extra sack opportunities as a result. And if you are concerned about Tristan Wirfs here, don't be: Crosby plays on the other side of the line. I make the fair price here -117.

Devonte Wyatt (GB) under 0.5 sacks (-450)

Like I wrote in the introduction, I'm committed to the idea that value is value -- no matter where we find it. My sack model seems to almost have a grudge against Wyatt, frequently indicating the Packers defensive tackle is overvalued. But his playing time is slightly shrinking (he has played under 40% of snaps in each of the past two games) and he has just a 6% pass rush win rate, which is below average for a defensive tackle. He also hasn't recorded a sack since late September. Add in that Jared Goff is better than average at avoiding sacks and the Packers are underdogs and my model makes the fair price on Wyatt's under -618.

See also:

• Chase Young (NO) over 0.5 sacks (+165) (added 12/6)

• Carl Granderson (NO) over 0.5 sacks (+145) (added 12/6)

• Calijah Kancey (TB) under 0.5 sacks (-155) (added 12/6)

• Osa Odighizuwa (DAL) under 0.5 sacks (-170) (added 12/6)

• Jordan Fuller (CAR) under 6.5 tackles + assists (-110) (added 12/6)

• Jaycee Horn (CAR) under 4.5 tackles + assists (+120) (added 12/6)

• Tyler Nubin (NYG) under 8.5 tackles + assists (-105) (added 12/6)

• Jason Pinnock (NYG) under 5.5 tackles + assists (+100) (added 12/6)

Alternate receiving yards

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 60-plus receiving yards (-190)

Pretty frequently in this spot I've highlighted downfield threats at long plus-money odds, taking advantage of those receivers' unusually high variance. This play is the opposite of that. In St. Brown, we're investing in a productive receiver (2.4 yards per route run) despite vertical routes making up just 27% of his route tree, which ranks 102nd out of 112 wide receivers with at least 150 routes this year.

Instead, he makes his yards though a high target rate (27%) and an exceptionally high catch rate (82%, second highest). The effect is a raised floor for Brown that we can take advantage of by betting the lower end of his alternate lines. My alternate receiving yards model prices this prop at -237.

Anytime touchdowns

Puka Nacua (LAR) to score 1-plus touchdowns (+145)

Not to repeat myself week after week, but week after week my touchdown model believes it is seeing the same thing: a significantly undervalued Nacua, and I buy it. I think it's somehow slipping a little under the radar just how good Nacua has been this year.

Among wide receivers with at least 150 routes run, Nacua ranks third -- only behind A.J. Brown and Nico Collins -- in yards per route run. Nacua's also first in target rate, as the ball heads his way a massive 36% of the time.

The model likes that Nacua is productive as he is while running a very low rate of gos and deep fades (which can signal a clearout receiver, something he certainly is not). We're 2-2 betting Nacua 1-plus touchdowns this year (+0.8 units) and 0-1 on multiple touchdowns. My price for him to score 1-plus touchdowns this week is -149.

Interceptions thrown

Jordan Love (GB) under 0.5 interceptions (+145)

Love has thrown a pick in all but two games this year, so on the surface this might not look like a great bet. However, one thing I know is that the expectation for most quarterbacks going into any game is that their chance to throw an interception is very close to 50-50. So any time we can get +145 one way or another on an interception prop, that should at least catch our eye.

In this case, the Packers are only slight underdogs and are also a run-heavy team, the latter of which should reduce the number of opportunities for Love to throw a pick. My interception model actually makes the under a very slight favorite at -102.