Welcome to Week 9 -- I hope you had a Happy Halloween. It is indeed spooky season over here with my picks. Last week was my worst outing since Week 3, thanks to a completed Hail Mary, a Jordan Mason injury and Sam LaPorta (48 receiving yards) getting over half of Jared Goff's total passing yards (85) to somehow hit the over on his prop. Weird week. We keep it moving.
I have three key games to watch this week, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each -- and a few more lines and props I'm targeting that you'll find at the bottom of the page.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
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Week 8 recap | Dolphins-Bills | Bears-Cardinals | Lions-Packers | Quick hits and SGP
Week 8 recap
It's bad, man. We have as many winning weeks as we have losing weeks, but we got hammered last week on everything under the sun: injuries, Hail Marys, a historic Lions game. No matter. It will make the positive finish by Week 17 all the sweeter.
Week 8: 3-7-1 (-3.59 units)
Overall: 37-48-1 (-8.62u)
Spread: 5-7 (-2.44u)
Total: 9-10 (-1.96u)
Props: 22-23 (-3.53u)
Same-game parlay: 0-8 (-1.6u)
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6, 48.5)
We'll start with a divisional rematch, as these two teams played in Week 2. The Bills were up 31-10 in the fourth quarter when Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa went headfirst into Bills safety Damar Hamlin and suffered his third career recorded concussion. Tagovailoa is back, and the anemic Miami offense looked resurrected last week in his return under center. The Dolphins averaged 3.38 points per drive, far and away their best number of the season, and 0.16 EPA per play -- their first positive outing since Week 1.
Despite the fact that Mike McDaniel's scheme minimizes the decision-making onus placed on his quarterback, Tagovailoa still makes the Dolphins' offense go. To run as intended, this scheme requires an impossibly quick trigger from the pocket and a willingness to throw into tight windows with faith and accuracy. When Tua returned those traits to the offense, it immediately shone.
But while the McDaniel offense appears to have returned to its former glory, it's still what it has always been -- a timing-based scheme with a small menu of plays and a heavy focus on first reads. McDaniel is an expert in bells and whistles, but his offense still relies heavily on the same menu of passing concepts -- RPO glances, quick screens, downfield digs and posts -- that it has since he took over in Miami in 2022.
This will be the seventh time that Sean McDermott's Bills have seen this offense and the sixth time they will see it as orchestrated by Tagovailoa. Here's how the offense has performed in each successive game over time (notice how the efficiency is slowly falling off over time):
The Bills are one of the few defenses that has figured out this offense -- at least, figured it out well enough that they can get stops and force the Dolphins into third-and-long, where all the RPO whirlygigs lose some of their efficacy. Buffalo's defense is smaller and lighter, built for speed, which helps it against the underneath targets that become big YAC gains against other defenses The Bills play with two safeties deep, but not so deep that they have no chance on driving on intermediate in-breakers. And they have a long, powerful defensive front that lives off upfield penetration, which allows them to fluster Tagovailoa in the pocket.
Even if the Bills weren't the upcoming opponent for Miami, I'd have some suspicion about the full recovery of the their offense. Putting points on Arizona is one thing, but the Cardinals are one of the worst defenses in football. Miami barely snuck by the Jaguars in Week 1 (short of three explosive plays, the Dolphins were highly inefficient on offense). And we know the Jaguars' defense has offered little resistance to most opponents.
Then the Dolphins were getting punked by the Bills in Week 2 while Tagovailoa was in for the majority of the game. I think the success against Arizona says much more about the Cardinals than it does about the Dolphins.
I'm expecting a bad day on offense for the Dolphins. A few big plays, of course, but generally a difficult day stringing together successive drives. That, plus a Bills offense that can really lean on you with the running game, has me looking at the Dolphins team total under in this one.
The bet: Dolphins UNDER 20.5 team total points (-105)
There also are a few likable props in this one. With the absence of Zach Sieler, Miami's best defensive lineman (who suffered a freak eye injury in practice last week), I'm very suspicious of the Dolphins' ability to get after Josh Allen. But I'm not sure this game will be close enough to produce real passing volume for Allen.
Instead, I'm focusing on a tried-and-true approach: receiving backs against the Bills. Sean McDermott's zone-heavy, take-away-the-intermediate philosophy allows for plenty of short completions, especially to backs as they release out of the backfield. De'Von Achane does plenty of that, but he is also aligned often at wide receiver when the Dolphins deploy two-back sets. In the three games Tagovailoa has played, Achane has 50, 69 and 76 receiving yards receiving, respectively, on six, seven and seven receptions.
I always lean receptions over receiving yards for RB props, as targets to backs tend to be completed at a very high rate. I think both are good bets, and I will be taking alternative lines on receiving yards (Achane is always good for an explosive catch-and-run), but for a standard bet, I think the volume of receptions is a bit more reliable.
The bet: Achane 5+ receptions (-105)
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, 44.5)
It has now been 347 days -- no, wait, you're reading this on Friday -- it has now been 348 calendar days since the Bears gave up more than 21 points in a game. They have faced 13 opponents over that stretch, and they have given up more than 20 points once. (It was to the Anthony Richardson-led Indianapolis Colts, which is ironic because he just got benched for Joe Flacco. But I digress.)
The Bears' defense is perhaps the best in football, and if not for the Hail Mary surrendered in astonishing and embarrassing fashion Sunday against the Commanders, we might be talking a bit more about the fact that Washington played its absolute worst game on offense against Matt Eberflus' group. Only four scoring drives surrendered, all of them field goals, without any turnovers is a mighty impressive feat against a team that was -- and still is! -- leading the league in points per drive. And the Bears were on the road.
Now, they get an Arizona offense that is either very good or just kind of good. We're not too sure yet. The Cardinals' offense has been extremely mercurial. In some games, they run the football at will; in others, they can't get anything going on the ground. In some games, Marvin Harrison Jr. looks like the dominant WR1 they drafted him to be; in others, they can't find a way to get him the football.
Yes, their seasonlong metrics look nice (seventh in success rate, ninth in EPA per play). But they've had as many games with a positive EPA per dropback as they have with a negative EPA per dropback. Their best games have come with unsustainable levels of explosive passes (seven against the Rams, nine against the Dolphins). Save for a dominating 41-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, the Cardinals have won three games by a combined four points, two on last-second, game-securing field goals and the last on a field goal with 1:40 remaining.
I wrote about the confounding nature of the Cardinals' offense this week, and one key note from that column stands out: Kyler Murray under pressure. The nifty playmaker has been absolutely astounding when dealing with pressure, both as a scrambler and as a thrower. Look at some of Murray's splits when pressured and when unpressured; quarterbacks aren't supposed to get
I find this very suspicious. Of course, no defense would strategically allow Murray a clean pocket with the idea that he'd play worse. Rather, the most likely explanation is that Murray's unpressured play (which is a lot more stable over time) is a better barometer for how he'll play on any given Sunday, while his pressured play (which swings on big plays and is far less stable) will likely regress over time. No team wants to live on scramble-drill miracles, even if that's something their quarterback happens to be very good at summoning.
I expect the Bears' defense to succeed against all offenses, save for the true juggernauts, and even if the Cardinals are capable of achieving peak weeks, they are not yet a reliable juggernaut. I think Chicago has the advantage on that side of the ball.
Regular readers know that we've bet the Bears often over the past month -- and very profitably (though Bears -3 last week was quite the heartbreaker). They had an excellent stretch against some of the league's worst defenses, dominating the Carolina Panthers, handling the Rams, then doing the same to the Jaguars in London.
This Cardinals defense qualifies as one such defense. They are dead last in defensive success rate against dropbacks and third-worst by EPA. Just about anyone can pass against this defense. And as we saw over the course of October, when Caleb Williams and the Bears get a soft pass defense, they eat. Against the Panthers, Rams and Jaguars, Williams completed 74% of his passes at 8.47 adjusted net yards per attempt, with a success rate of 56% EPA per dropback of 0.19. Those are big-boy numbers.
Chicago is coming off of an embarrassing loss and needs a mouthwash win. The NFC North is also impossibly competitive, and the Bears can't afford to drop any more silly games. I expect a focused effort against a generally inferior team -- and no late-game shenanigans to flip the result on us late.
The bet: Bears moneyline (+105)
I'd like to take a Bears wide receiver for the prop this week, as the Cardinals surrender the highest catch rate and fourth-highest yards per route run to opposing wideouts this season. The problem is, it's tough to riddle out exactly who is the Bears' primary target. It took Williams 3.5 quarters of mostly scoreless offense to find DJ Moore on a downfield target, which feels totally unacceptable given Moore's status as the presumed WR1 of this offense. Keenan Allen continues to get targets, but he does little with them in terms of contested catches, adjusting to the football or winning after the catch. Rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze has been used as an isolation winner on late downs, which is a promising sign, but I'm not sure it will continue.
Instead, for purposes of props, I'll look to fade Kyler Murray as a runner. The Bears' defense, which has faced both Jayden Daniels and Anthony Richardson this year, has yet to give up a run of more than 15.5 yards to a quarterback, which is Murray's line for his longest rush. Murray is certainly a prolific scrambler -- and has ripped off two huge touchdown runs this season -- but he isn't a big body and doesn't try to finish runs with extra yardage if he has to. We'll fade him against a disciplined, hustling Bears defense that plays tons of zone coverage.
The bet: Murray longest rush UNDER 15.5 yards (-115)
Detroit Lions (-2.5, 48.5) at Green Bay Packers
No team is hotter than the Lions, who, in their past few games, have gone without an incomplete pass against the Seattle Seahawks, avenged 2023 injustices by embarrassing the Cowboys in Dallas, knocked off an undefeated divisional opponent in their home stadium with a last-second field goal against the Minnesota Vikings and dropped 52 points on the Tennessee Titans without ever leaving first gear. This sort of run screams an overinflated market position, and I went into this game fully expecting to fade Detroit against the Packers.
But the more I looked at the matchup, the more I liked it for Detroit.
Let's start with the injury report. The big names seem to skew Green Bay's way. Packers quarterback Jordan Love is expected to play despite a groin strain, while Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams is serving the second of a two-game suspension and will be absent. So too will star edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, who is likely done for the regular season with a gruesome leg injury. The Lions are none too coyly looking for pass-rush help at the trade deadline, but as it has yet to arrive, the Lions' defense should be graded down for their inability to get after the passer.
But the Packers might be missing multiple players from their secondary, as rookie safety standout Evan Williams and star cornerback Jaire Alexander both missed consecutive days of practice Wednesday and Thursday. So too did starting center Josh Myers, which is a big deal against a Detroit front that is relying on a strong interior rush in Hutchinson's absence. Defensive tackles Alim McNeill, DJ Reader and Levi Onwuzurike should be at a huge advantage Sunday.
The Packers' defense is one of the more confounding units in football. They are 30th in the league in defensive success rate against dropbacks ---only the Cardinals and the Patriots are worse ---yet they are fifth in EPA per dropback.
How is this possible? Turnovers!
The Packers have 15 takeaways on opposing dropbacks this year, which leads the league. (The Lions are second, for what it's worth, at 14.) Those splash plays have saved a defense that, by the underlying metrics, is below average. They're bottom 10 in explosive play rate surrendered and overall success rate. They're 27th in red zone efficiency; when opposing offenses get down there, they score touchdowns. When they don't blitz, they have a pressure rate of 27.6%, the 11th-worst rate in football. And they blitz at the third-lowest rate.
Without takeaways, this Packers' defense doesn't do much to cause fear, and that's before the injuries that they might have in the secondary. Fortunately for the Lions, Jared Goff has been excellent at protecting the football, with an interception rate below 2% on the season, and hasn't thrown a pick in any of the past four weeks. Without Williams on the field, I expect the Lions, who lead the league in explosive pass percentage, to actually forgo some of those downfield looks for more short and intermediate passes, taking advantage of a Packers defense that is willing to both bend and break if you play clean football all the way down the field.
There is one key ally for the Packers' defense, and that's the bright blue sky. Goff is infamously better inside than he is outside, especially when the weather starts to turn. Goff has played under a dome in all seven games this season, as the Lions' three away games have been in Los Angeles, Arizona and Minnesota. The current forecast expects temperatures in the 50s with the potential for light rain and some wind, which can knock Goff off his game. Here are Goff's numbers split by environment, with an additional focus on those outdoor games he's played in inclement weather:
I might wait until closer to kickoff to get a clearer picture on the weather to place this bet, but as it stands, I'm still willing to trust Goff in the fall weather in Green Bay (he really hasn't been that much worse outside than he has been inside over a large sample). I expect the Lions to rely on the rushing attack if Goff starts struggling, which can still spell big points for them. I also expect the Packers to do their part to push the tempo and the total in this game, which will keep the Lions' offense active through four quarters.
I'm taking the Lions' first-half-team total here, as full game lines are not posted, given Love's uncertainty. But I like the Lions over 24.5 team total points up to -125 and over 25.5 up to -110.
The bet: Lions first-half-team total points OVER 12.5 (-125)
There are plenty of Packers props I like, but again, none have been posted yet because of Love's uncertain status. I will be looking for Romeo Doubs overs and Josh Jacobs unders in the receiving game as they post later this week, but for now, I'm banking on big volume for Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Packers are a base zone coverage team and figure to be doubly so if they're missing their star corner in Alexander. St. Brown is Goff's preferred target when facing zone coverage, averaging a whopping 33.6% target rate against zone coverage so far this season. Even if inclement weather delivers a shaky Goff performance, St. Brown has a shallow depth of target, and he can accumulate volume while Goff struggles.
The bet: St. Brown OVER 6.5 receptions (-110)
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)
Bears +7.5 and Denver Broncos +14.5 in 6-point teaser (-127)
It's a great week for teaser legs. I also like the Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots in classic 6-point teasers, but I'll go for the Bears and Broncos here. Chicago rarely gets blown out, given the strength of its defense, and the Cardinals have only one blowout win this season. Given the Baltimore Ravens' poor pass defense and penchant for surrendering leads, I like the Broncos to get within two scores late, even if they're outclassed for much of the game.
Saquon Barkley OVER 14.5 receiving yards (-110)
The Jaguars' defense really struggles to limit backs as receivers, as Achane, James Cook, Dare Ogunbowale, JaMycal Hasty and Trey Sermon have all had big days catching passes against their defense. Saquon could get over this number in just one snag, but, as the Jags' run defense has actually improved over the past few weeks, if the Eagles struggle to get Barkley his usual dominance on the ground, I imagine they'll scheme up a touch or two for him in the air.
Bo Nix UNDER 24.5 rushing yards (-110)
The Ravens' defense is excellent against rushing quarterbacks. They're allowing only 3.1 yards per carry to quarterbacks, second-best only to the Vikings. They also discourage quarterback rush attempts in general by being such a soft pass defense -- there are open receivers to throw to, so why bother scrambling? Nix has been a solid scrambler, especially in games in which Denver has been heavily trailing, so I might look for a live middle late in this game if the Ravens have their big expected lead.
Cooper Kupp OVER 5.5 receptions (-115)
The reassembling of the Rams' offense on Thursday night was quite a sight, as the return of Kupp and Puka Nacua heralded a huge win for the Rams' postseason hopes. Now, they travel to Seattle for a key divisional matchup. The Seahawks' defense really struggles with players in motion, and Kupp is the primary motion man for the Rams. Expect him to get a high volume of looks within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage as the Rams distribute the ball quickly to avoid the Seahawks' pass rush.
SGP: Saints -9.5, over 43.5 total points, Alvin Kamara 90+ rushing yards (+600)
I don't know how many games left we'll have to fade Bryce Young's Panthers, but this feels like a perfect one. The Saints are finally getting healthier, as quarterback Derek Carr joins a slew of recent returnees to the lineup, including, critically, two offensive linemen in Cesar Ruiz and Lucas Patrick. The Panthers' run defense is rough especially against outside zone, which the Saints major in. The reeling Saints and coach Dennis Allen should want to win -- and win big -- to fight for job security as the season trucks along. Kamara rushing props are one of my biggest positions of the week.