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          NFL betting: Under-the-radar props to bet in Week 9

          How many receiving yards will Zay Flowers of the Baltimore Ravens record? AP Photo/Chris O'Meara
          • Seth WalderNov 1, 2024, 05:18 PM ET
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              Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.

          We're betting to win.

          And if I'm the one doing the betting, there are two keys I need to have the confidence to place the wager:

          1. A model-backed approach, or at the very least a quantitative-based angle. But almost all the bets in this column will be based on the outputs of models built by me, or occasionally by my colleagues at ESPN Analytics.

          2. A less-efficient market. NFL sides and totals are voluminous markets, and betting against those mainstream numbers is like wagering on All-Madden mode. It's why I often look to props (especially on defense!) and alternate lines. Less attention means less-efficient markets and therefore more opportunities to find value.

          Those two criteria make up the crux of this weekly column, though occasionally I'll recommend bets that satisfy one criterion or the other. Each week I'll post bets from our models in mostly lower-visibility categories with the simple goal of coming out ahead. We'll be looking at odds all across the spectrum, from -1000 to 100-1 -- as far as I'm concerned, value is value no matter the price.

          Results for this season can be found at the bottom of this story.

          Defensive player props

          Neville Hewitt (HOU) under 8.5 tackles + assists (-105)

          I like this bet quite a bit. Hewitt is tricky to forecast because he basically hadn't played defense since 2021 and then suddenly played 100% of snaps in each of the last two games with Azeez Al-Shaair out -- and Al-Shaair is still out heading into Thursday night. To make this forecast I manually set the expectation for Hewitt's playing time to 100% and used his average tackle share rates since 2019 since we barely have any recent history for him.

          Doing that, the model projects 7.5 combined tackles for Hewitt. What makes this bet better: Henry To'oTo'o is back from injury and Devin White is now on the roster after making his Texans debut last week. Could that mean Hewitt doesn't quite play every down? It might or might not, but the uncertainty works in our favor and is the cherry on top for a bet I'd make anyway even if I were sure he was expected to play every snap.

          Quinnen Williams (NYJ) under 0.5 sacks (-155)

          I'll be honest, I have some trepidation here. Williams' numbers over the entire season look only OK, but he's running pretty hot over the past three games with 2.5 sacks and an 18% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle. Plus, the interior of the Houston line is looking rough in pass protection this season.

          That being said, I trust the model and will ride with it when it tells me the fair price here is -222, based largely on:

          • Williams' just OK performance over the course of the entire year

          • Low base rates for defensive tackles getting sacks in general

          • Stroud taking sacks at roughly an average rate

          If the line were a little closer to my price I might opt out of betting it given the factors I mentioned up top, but at this level of disagreement I'm still betting here.

          See also:

          Alternate receiving yards

          Zay Flowers (BAL) 70-plus receiving yards (+210)

          The Diontae Johnson trade is clearly playing a role here, because the newly acquired receiver is an excellent route runner and will surely command some targets. That should be partially accounted for by the model, which incorporates Flowers' median receiving yards prop line (49.5) that is surely baking in the added target competition.

          But in this specific matchup I'm less worried about that, as the addition of Johnson means that the Ravens will play Flowers more in the slot. Against the Broncos, that means moving Flowers away from Pat Surtain II, whose 10% target rate is the second lowest in the NFL this year among outside corners. All those targets not at the receiver playing opposite Surtain have to flow elsewhere and some of them will come Flowers' way.

          Anytime touchdowns

          Justin Jefferson (MIN) to score a touchdown (-125)

          We lost on this bet last week but we're coming right back to it. The touchdown model loves Jefferson and despite the Vikings receiver not scoring last week, his performance only reinforced why the model likes him so much. In that loss to the Rams, Jefferson recorded eight receptions on nine targets for 115 receiving yards.

          Jefferson has a 40% receiving yards share, highest in the league, along also ranks second in yards per route run, fourth in completed air yards per route and sixth in route rate (the percentage of a team's dropbacks a player runs a route on). He's elite in both efficiency and volume, and it's why the model makes his fair touchdown price -186.

          Interceptions thrown

          Daniel Jones (NYG) over 0.5 interceptions (+100)

          There are several factors working for us betting Jones' over here:

          • He hasn't played well: Jones ranks 26th in QBR this season.

          • The Giants are four-point underdogs, which means they are more likely to be behind and force Jones into desperate passing situations.

          • The Giants pass more than you might expect! They rank ninth in designed passing rate and are passing frequently on first down.

          Jones has thrown five picks this year for a plenty palatable 1.6% interception rate, actually under the 2.0% average. But the model still peeks at last season, when it knows he had a 2.9% interception rate. The model makes the fair price here -116.

          Alternate totals

          Dallas Cowboys-Atlanta Falcons over 56.5 (+150)

          I'm relying on FPI+ -- our translation of ESPN's Football Power Index to the betting market -- and that model prices this at +124. The idea in this case is that we have two relatively evenly-matched quarterbacks, meaning the offenses can keep up with one another and force each other to keep playing aggressively, that are both playing against bad defenses and are in a dome. What this means is that the model believes the upside scenario of a major score fest is more likely than the odds suggest.

          Past results

          Past results for this season are below. I wrote about the rules I set for myself regarding line movement and adding props in Week 1's column.