Welcome to Week 3. Coming off a huge week for underdogs, my head is spinning. Is anyone as good or as bad as I thought? It was a good reminder last week that styles make fights, and anyone can beat anyone in the NFL if the matchup is right.
I have three key games to watch this week, with a game-level bet for each (side or total), as well as a prop for each -- and a few more lines and props I'm targeting at the bottom of the page.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
Jump to:
Week 2 recap | Texans-Vikings | Bears-Colts | Lions-Cardinals | Quick hits and SGP
Week 2 recap
I took a bath last week, as many public bettors did. I was flat wrong on my read for the New Orleans Saints-Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts-Green Bay Packers games. (I remain shocked by that Packers outcome.) It was tough to lose the Cincinnati Bengals-Kansas City Chiefs under on the last play of the game following a fourth-and-16 conversion, and A.J. Brown's late injury in practice hurt us on Falcons-Eagles. Nevertheless, we persist. Early season losses always look as if they hurt more than they actually do.
Week 2: 2-8 (-5.42 units)
Overall: 7-13 (-4.07u)
Props: 4-6 (-2.07u)
Sides: 1-2 (-1.05u)
Totals: 2-3 (-1.18u)
Same-game parlay: 0-2 (-0.4u)
Houston Texans (-2, 46.5) at Minnesota Vikings
There's tons of deserved excitement in Minnesota for its 2-0 start, especially given the quality ball Sam Darnold has played to start the season. Tons of guff for me, as well, as I called them pretenders in my column earlier this week. That's fair. Beat a great Texans team in your home barn, and I'll happily eat crow.
The defining factor of the game is not Darnold, but rather the Texans' offense against Brian Flores and that electric Vikings defense. Flores is a chaos defensive coordinator. He wants to send pass rushers from a variety of alignments, wants to get zone droppers from a variety of alignments, wants to make the quarterback think. In those moments of hesitation and uncertainty, a free rusher can get home. So far this season, Flores has blitzed on only 35.5% of opposing dropbacks (second in the league); last year, the Vikings were at 49.4%. That's heavy metal.
Here's the bad news: You shouldn't blitz C.J. Stroud. Typically, you should blitz rookie quarterbacks -- and trust me, defenses have tried. But the young passer demonstrated a shocking immunity to blitzes since entering the league last year. Look at Stroud's numbers since the start of last season when blitzed relative to his general passing numbers; the blitz hardly affected his production.
Rather, it was pressure without blitzing that flustered Stroud -- though, of course, that's the thing that flummoxes all quarterbacks. That's what Flores will have to summon Sunday against Stroud: a four-man rush that generates pressure.
This was not the strength of the Vikings last season. With only four pass rushers (none of whom were defensive backs, to control for simulated pressures), the Vikings were 17th in pressure rate and 30th in pass rush win rate. They did this on only 181 snaps last season, so it's not a huge sample, and these were often early down passes with play-action fakes to slow the pass rush. But the Vikings just did not win in these circumstances.
Now, two short weeks into this season, they have already looked better. They're fifth in pressure rate (still 21st in PRWR) and have actually played a decent number of snaps so far. The Vikings added two pass rushers this offseason in free agency (Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel) and another in the draft (Dallas Turner), with this very issue in mind. Living off the blitz and chaos is great against the Daniel Joneses and Brock Purdys of the world, but once you run into a Stroud, you need to have a bona fide pass rush.
The acquisitions of Greenard and Van Ginkel are paying off early, though Turner (who is injured this week) is taking his rookie lumps. Greenard is 16th in PRWR off the edge and Van Ginkel is 21st.
Will that pass rush succeed consistently against Houston? The Texans' have a highly paid tackle duo in Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard, but both of the Texans' 2024 opponents have found success rushing against Houston. Chicago Bears ends Montez Sweat and Darrell Taylor racked up six combined pressures; so too did Indianapolis Colts defensive ends Kwity Paye and Laiatu Latu. Houston is gettable, and if anyone knows how to get Tunsil and Howard, it should be Greenard, who went against them in practice for the past few seasons in Houston.
But even if the Vikings get pressure with a four-down rush, they'll be playing left-handed. Flores wants to blitz, especially on late downs, and his defense is built with the players to make that philosophy work. In 19 games as the Vikings' defensive coordinator, Flores has blitzed on fewer than 30% of the dropbacks only three times. In Stroud's 19 career games, he has been blitzed at least 30% of the time three times. He is 3-0 in those games, averaging 10.9 yards per attempt, with six touchdowns, no interceptions and a cool 21.7% explosive pass rate.
I don't think this Vikings' defense has the right tools yet to deal with a quarterback such as Stroud. As such, I'm taking the Texans minus the points.
The bet: Texans -2 (-110)
Props for this game are a bit thin, as we're still waiting for official injury news on Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. As of Thursday's practice, Jefferson was a limited participant and was questionable (though he said he would play Sunday), and Addison sat out. The Texans also could be without running back Joe Mixon, who sat out practices Wednesday and Thursday.
But that's par for the course as the NFL season rolls on. What we do have clarity on is this Vikings backfield, which has largely been a timeshare to this point. Aaron Jones, Minnesota's big free agent add, has 23 carries, only five more than Ty Chandler, who actually had 10 to Jones' nine in Week 2 against the San Francisco 49ers.
The Vikings clearly like both backs as ball carriers, though they do prefer Jones as a pass catcher (25 routes) to Chandler (12 routes). If we get the expected game script of a Texans lead, it's reasonable to expect a few of Jones' potential carries to turn into receptions, which should keep him below his rushing yardage number. And even if the game script stays neutral, we're looking at one of the better run defenses through the first two weeks of the season in Houston. The Texans gave up 48 yards on 16 carries for Jonathan Taylor and a repulsive 18 yards on 14 carries for D'Andre Swift in Week 2.
The bet: Aaron Jones under 49.5 rushing yards (-125)
Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5, 43.5)
I love a matchup between two teams that are trying not to panic. The 0-2 Colts were embarrassed in Week 2 by the Malik Willis-led Packers, who ran the ball for near-record volume in the first half and watched the Colts implode trying to bridge the gap in the second half. But at least the Colts don't have a father of their rookie receiver posting clips of him getting open -- but not getting the ball -- on X. Two weeks into the Caleb Williams experience, the Bears have scored one offensive touchdown. But, hey, that's more than the amount of deep passes they've completed. Williams is 0-for-10 on passes of 20-plus yards in the air.
In this column last week, I preached patience on Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., and he responded with a huge Week 2 performance. I'm here to preach patience with Williams as we enter Week 3. The Bears' offense has put a lot on Williams' plate (more, perhaps, than is wise to give a rookie quarterback behind a shaky offensive line) and he's generally handling it well. He's identifying blitzes, changing protections, getting to the correct reads. In Week 1 at Tennessee, everything seemed too fast for him; in Week 2 against a very good Houston defense, everything already seemed a little slower.
Development isn't linear, and Williams will take steps backward. But I'm confident he'll generally keep getting better. We know he has the arm, mobility and accuracy to succeed in the NFL. It will come.
Will it come this week? The Colts' defense has suffered major injuries through two weeks of the season, and the unit wasn't stiff to begin with. Starting defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, defensive end Samson Ebukam and cornerback JuJu Brents are all on injured reserve. Rookie pass rusher Laiatu Latu did not practice Wednesday or Thursday and seems likely to sit out Sunday's game.
The absence of Buckner is the biggest factor. The Bears' interior offensive line has been the biggest problem for this team through two weeks, but without Buckner, the Colts don't have a strong pass rush presence from the interior. Grover Stewart is a good player but is more in the mold of a run defender. Neither Taven Bryan nor Adetomiwa Adebawore, who are the Buckner alternatives, are consistent players yet.
I expect Williams to have more time in better pockets than he has had at any point this season. Not great pockets and tons of time, but enough to get the passing game going. And when a passing game succeeds against the Colts, it does so by targeting outside receivers in isolation. Nico Collins whooped the Colts in Week 1 with 195 yards on nine catches. Last season, Mike Evans got them for 70 yards on six receptions and Davante Adams had 126 on 13. It doesn't need to be big outside receivers, just players who predominantly line up wide and match up with those Cover-3 corners in Gus Bradley's defense. Calvin Ridley got them for 101 yards on eight targets and Diontae Johnson had 62 on four catches with Kenny Pickett throwing him the ball.
As such, I'm looking at DJ Moore to string together a big game. The target share has been there for Moore. His 30.2% team target share is eighth among all receivers, and while that number is inflated by the Week 2 absence of Keenan Allen, it looks as if Allen won't be able to go again in Week 3. Even if he does, Moore figures for more of the downfield targets than Allen, who is a bigger and slower body who works more in the underneath areas of the field.
On film, you can see all the ingredients in Moore's body of work for big games. The Bears are designing touches for him in the screen game. Williams trusts him in isolation, and his number is getting called on third down to win one-on-ones. And there are unrealized air yards here; Moore has 59 unrealized air yards as a result of the failed deep throws to this point in the season. We don't even need to connect on one of those to get over this number, but if we do, we're golden.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) September 19, 2024
The bet: DJ Moore over 59.5 receiving yards (-135)
While I'm still very suspicious of that Colts defense despite the "Twilight Zone" game they played against the Packers, I still have faith in the team's offense. Drops, situational errors and poor late-down performances in Week 2 made the offense look far worse than it really was. But the Colts will always be a tough unit to handicap. How bad would it have looked against the Texans if not for two 60-plus-yard completions?
Here's what I do know: The Bears' defense is stifling. Since Montez Sweat joined the team in Week 9 of 2023, the Bears are first in defensive success rate and defensive EPA per play. Those numbers are juiced a bit -- they faced a poor run of quarterbacks to finish last season -- but I saw what they did to Stroud on Sunday night.
The return of receiver Josh Downs to the Colts' lineup gives me a little bit of pause. He's an excellent player who should help them move the sticks with more consistency, but I can't see the Colts finding sustained success against the Bears. Save for an explosive play or two, I think it's another quiet day on offense for Indianapolis.
The Bears haven't given up over 21 points since Week 11 of last season, and I like the Colts under 21.5 total points. I do think Bears +1.5 is a fine alternative, and I love Bears +7.5 in teaser legs this week.
The bet: Colts under 21.5 total points (-115)
Detroit Lions (-3, 51.5) at Arizona Cardinals
This feels like a classic overreaction spot early in the season that I'm willing to fade. Imagine telling yourself three weeks ago that you could get the Lions as only 3-point favorites against the Cardinals in Week 3. You'd be jumping for joy.
What has changed? Well, the Lions' offense hasn't had the same success over the last two weeks that we've come to expect from the Ben Johnson-Jared Goff pairing. They're 18th in points per drive following a woeful outing against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in which seven (count 'em, seven!) red zone drives ended with exactly 16 points. Since 1966, there have been 184 regular-season or postseason games with seven-plus red zone drives, and exactly eight of them ended with one or fewer red zone touchdowns. The Lions just gave us the eighth Sunday.
Red zone efficiency will return for the Lions. Perhaps more concerning is a quiet start to their passing game, which is only 20th by success rate and 12th by EPA per dropback. Jameson Williams' first two weeks have been promising, but the fact rookie sensation tight end Sam LaPorta has yet to get going this season (6 catches on 8 targets for 58 yards) has ruined the down-to-down efficiency of the offense. The good news is the bread and butter of the Lions' offense -- the run game -- still works as intended. On designed runs, the Lions are second in success rate and first in EPA per play.
Just as I want to buy low on the Lions' offense, I want to sell high on the Cardinals' defense, which is 31st in success rate right now when you factor out garbage time (the late-game, clock-burning drives from the Rams are juicing the Cardinals' numbers). At first blush, holding the Rams to 10 points looks like a big win, but the Rams had two drives end on downs in Cardinals territory, including one inside the 10.
The Cardinals spent time this offseason investing in their defensive tackle room, adding Bilal Nichols and Justin Jones in free agency, but they still lack the ability to go size for size in the running game. The Rams don't mess with their personnel, but when the Buffalo Bills went with multiple tight end sets against the Cardinals' light defensive personnel, they found tons of success running the football.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) September 19, 2024
This is exactly what the Lions want to do in the running game -- get under center, get multiple tight ends on the field and run downhill. It also opens the play-action pass, which was the Lions' go-to in the early stages of Goff's time in Detroit and has been a huge weakness for the Cardinals under Gannon. Since the start of last season, the Cardinals are worst by both success rate and explosive pass rate surrendered against play-action dropbacks, and they are sixth-worst by EPA.
Detroit isn't badly in need of a get-right game, but it's facing a great get-right spot against Arizona. I like the Lions, even on the road. Jared Goff in a dome is still Jared Goff in a dome.
The bet: Lions -3 (-105)
There are a few props I like in this one as a result of the expected game script. Williams' longest reception over 22.5 yards feels good, as does over 49.5 rushing yards for David Montgomery. But I'm actually looking to the Cardinals' offense here and circling tight end Trey McBride.
McBride is a hugely important player in this one for the Cardinals, who want to be a heavy personnel team, just like the Lions do. They want to run the football out of those looks, just like the Lions do. Then they want to hit the play-action pass, the same way the Lions do.
The explosive game by Harrison last week can trick us into thinking he's the guy to target against a Lions team that has given up big performances to outside receivers in the first two weeks of the season, but that's a red herring. Chris Godwin cooked the Lions from the slot, not the outside; and Cooper Kupp was the "outside" receiver on a team that uses the most condensed formations in the league. It's true the Lions leave their outside cornerbacks on islands in man coverage, but I don't think Harrison will have the same success against Carlton Davis III and Terrion Arnold as he had against the Rams.
But the Lions always struggle to handle explosive pass-catching tight ends, and it is McBride who has the early hold on target share for the Cardinals (28.8% of total looks to Harrison's 21.2%). The Lions tend to rotate linebackers, and they don't necessarily have a positive player at the position in coverage. McBride should feast.
I'm going for over on McBride's longest reception over 19.5. He has gone over this number in four of his last six games, and the Lions have given up a 20-plus-yard reception to a tight end in five of their last seven. In a high-scoring contest, expect chunk gains.
The bet: Trey McBride longest reception over 19.5 yards (-120)
Other looks and a same-game parlay (SGP)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 (-115) vs. Denver Broncos
There will be a time and place to short the undefeated Buccaneers, who are thin defensively and have a solid, but not elite, quarterback in Baker Mayfield. But Sunday is not that day. Todd Bowles against rookie quarterbacks is a historically strong position, and the easily flustered Bo Nix is ripe for the blitzing. It's a great week for teasers, in my opinion, and I love taking the Bucs down to the money line, along with Bears +7.5, Panthers +11 or 49ers money line. But as it stands, we should trust the Bucs to put enough points on the board to win this by a touchdown, especially with the uncharacteristically shaky play of Broncos CB Patrick Surtain early this season.
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts over 9.5 rushing attempts (-110)
I haven't seen Hurts look as comfortable running the football as he did Monday night in quite a while. It's clear new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore wants to intentionally incorporate QB runs into the Eagles' base offense, and it seems as if the absence of A.J. Brown will lead to more Hurts scrambles. In two games against Dennis Allen's Saints defense, which has always suffered against QB runs, Hurts has 16 carries apiece.
New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara over 69.5 rushing yards (-105)
Kamara got to this number in nine carries against the Panthers and then in 12 against the Cowboys. That was early in the third quarter against Dallas and before halftime against Carolina. I know Derek Carr and this passing attack are getting all of the headlines, but it's the play of the offensive line that has impressed me the most, and now it gets an Eagles run defense that is last in the league in success rate against running back carries. Kamara should be able to get home, even if he isn't salting away a big lead with carries in the second half.
Atlanta Falcons QB Kirk Cousins under 224.5 passing yards (+105)
Though Cousins looked better against the Eagles in Week 2, I would not yet say he looks good. The ball is still dying on him when he pushes it into tight windows or down the field. He hit 241 yards against the Eagles, but 70 of those came on a final drive that he probably never should have had in the first place. The Chiefs, like the Eagles, have the sort of defense the Falcons should -- and will -- run the ball well on, but they actually have the secondary to discourage downfield passes.
SGP: Carolina Panthers +5 at Las Vegas Raiders, Chuba Hubbard 15+ receiving yards, Brock Bowers 45+ receiving yards (+475)
We saw only one game of Andy Dalton in place of Bryce Young last season, but the elevating effect he had on the entire operation was apparent. One thing he did plenty of was to throw to the running back. Miles Sanders was the starter in that Week 3 game, and he had five catches on nine targets. This year, the starter is Hubbard, so we'll take his receiving over, along with that of Brock Bowers. Since the start of 2023, only the Rams are giving up more yards per target to tight ends than the Panthers, and the Raiders are taking pains to get Bowers involved in the passing game early and often. I'm expecting a sleepy Raiders performance after that emotional win over the Baltimore Ravens and an accordingly close game.