Week 6 in college football was bananas.
It was the first time since 2016 that five of the top 11 teams ranked in the Associated Press poll lost on the same day. And it was the first time -- ever -- that multiple top-five SEC teams lost against unranked opponents.
What does it all mean?
The 13 members of the College Football Playoff selection committee have bad losses and teams with multiple losses to consider -- and the picture will keep changing. One thing that won't change: Alabama beat Georgia on Sept. 28. It's unlikely the committee would ignore that head-to-head result, even after the Crimson Tide's ugly loss at Vanderbilt. The tiebreaker was accounted for in this week's projection.
This is a snapshot of what the committee might do Tuesday -- through six weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket could look like based on the committee's projected top 12 for this week -- plus a glance at eight more teams that can play their way in and how the Group of 5 race stacks up.
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Byes | First-round matchups
First four out | Next four out
Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee.
No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns: The Longhorns moved into the top spot following Alabama's loss to Vanderbilt on Saturday, earning the No. 1 seed as the SEC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is also based on Texas potentially being the committee's No. 1 team overall on Selection Day. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Texas has a 91% chance to reach the CFP and a 23% shot to win the national title.
No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would earn the No. 2 seed as the projected Big Ten champs and the second-ranked conference champion, behind only Texas. This week, the top two seeds mirror the committee's top two because both Texas and Ohio State are projected conference champions. It won't always shake out that way. According to ESPN Analytics, Ohio State has the best chance to win out (27.1%), followed by Texas (21.9%).
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes would earn this seed as the ACC champions and the third-ranked conference champ. Miami avoided a disastrous scenario Saturday with its comeback win at Cal. Because of that, Miami is now No. 2 in the country in ESPN's strength of record metric, which shows that the average CFP contender would have a 38% chance of achieving the same record against the same opponents. The Canes (40.8%) still have the edge over Clemson (25.6%) with the best chance to win the ACC.
No. 4 seed BYU Cougars: The Cougars earned this spot as the projected Big 12 champions this week, and they are No. 1 in ESPN's strength of record. The Cougars' wins against SMU and Kansas State would loom large at this point in the committee meeting room. The Big 12 is a wide-open race, though, and this spot has fluctuated weekly. There are still six teams (Iowa State, Colorado, BYU, West Virginia, Texas Tech and K-State) that have at least a 10% chance to win the league.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide
Winner plays: No. 4 BYU
Explaining the seeding: Boise State would earn this spot as the committee's fifth-ranked conference champion, and its No. 12 seed would match its No. 12 ranking this week. According to ESPN Analytics, Boise State has the highest chance to win the Mountain West Conference (60.9%), with UNLV a distant second (27.6%). In this case, Alabama is the projected SEC runner-up, and No. 5 is the highest possible seed for the Tide because the top four spots are reserved for conference champions.
No. 9 Oregon Ducks at No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions
Winner plays: No. 1 Texas
Explaining the seeding: Big Ten opponents Oregon and Penn State don't play each other during the regular season, although they could meet in the conference championship game. (If that happens, though, one of them would replace Ohio State above in the top four seeds and earn a first-round bye.) In this scenario, Penn State is the projected Big Ten runner-up. Note the importance of the seeding -- and home-field advantage -- as the winner will face the best team in the country.
No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels at No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami
Explaining the seeding: The committee doesn't consider rematches when voting for its final rankings on Selection Day, and there is no reseeding process to avoid it. Georgia will play at Ole Miss on Nov. 9. Ole Miss has a 53.8% chance to win that game, according to ESPN Analytics. Neither team will have faced Miami during the regular season.
No. 10 Clemson Tigers at No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers
Winner plays: No. 2 Ohio State
Explaining the seeding: Clemson is on track to face Miami in the ACC championship game, but in this scenario, the Tigers are the projected runner-up. According to ESPN Analytics, Miami has a 39.9% chance to finish as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions and earn a first-round bye, which is the third-best chance at a bye in the country, behind Ohio State and Texas. Clemson is No. 6 with a 21.2% chance. In this scenario, Tennessee is finishing as the committee's fourth-best SEC team.
First four out
LSU Tigers (4-1)
Best win: Sept. 14 at South Carolina, 36-33
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 9 vs. Alabama
The Tigers' head-to-head loss to USC in Las Vegas has a greater chance of being devalued in the committee meeting room now that the Trojans have lost a second game and their records are no longer comparable. Still, LSU is in need of a résumé boost and can get one on Saturday against Ole Miss.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1)
Best win: Aug. 31 at Texas A&M, 23-13
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at USC
The home loss to Northern Illinois is going to sting all season, and Louisville losing to SMU doesn't help the Irish, because topping the Cardinals was one of their best wins. What does help is Texas A&M lurking around the playoff picture. Notre Dame's season-opening victory over A&M could keep getting bigger if the Aggies continue to win.
Iowa State Cyclones (5-0)
Best win: Sept. 7 at Iowa, 20-19
Toughest remaining game: Saturday at West Virginia
Iowa State posting a shutout at Houston looks a little better after the Cougars beat TCU last weekend. The Cyclones have a tough trip this weekend to West Virginia, where ESPN Analytics gives them a 54.5% chance to win.
Indiana Hoosiers (6-0)
Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Maryland, 42-28
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 23 at Ohio State
Following their win at Northwestern, the undefeated Hoosiers saw their playoff chances increase by 13%, according to ESPN Analytics. The reality, though, is that until proved otherwise, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State are the league leaders. Indiana's most likely path is through an at-large bid.
Next four out
Oklahoma Sooners (4-1)
Best win: Sept. 28 at Auburn, 27-21
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Texas
Considering Arkansas was able to beat the Volunteers, the Sooners' Sept. 21 home loss to Tennessee looks a little worse. Oklahoma's game on Saturday against rival Texas in Dallas will change the playoff picture and the SEC standings, which will impact both teams' chances at a first-round bye. The Sooners won last year's matchup, but they weren't consistent enough during the remainder of the season. They finished with two losses and did not make the playoff.
Kansas State Wildcats (4-1)
Best win: Sept. 13 vs. Arizona, 31-7
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 at Iowa State
The Wildcats' home win against Oklahoma State lost its luster now that the Cowboys already have three losses, and the head-to-head loss to BYU is significant. The convincing win against Arizona helps the Cats' résumé, along with the win at Tulane, as the two-loss Green Wave are back in the Group of 5 CFP mix (see below).
Texas A&M Aggies (5-1)
Best win: Saturday vs. Missouri, 41-10
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 30 vs. Texas
Nobody saw their playoff chances increase more after Week 6 than the Aggies, who made a 21% jump following their 41-10 steamrollering of Missouri, according to ESPN Analytics. The season-opening home defeat versus Notre Dame is in the "good loss" category, but the Aggies' résumé could still use a statement win.
Illinois Fighting Illini (4-1)
Best win: Sept. 20 at Nebraska, 31-24 (OT)
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 26 at Oregon
The overtime win on the road against a 5-1 Nebraska team will get the committee's attention, and the 21-7 loss at Penn State was hardly a meltdown. The Illini had a bye week to prepare for Purdue, and they can't struggle on Saturday against the 1-4 Boilermakers if they're going to be taken seriously as an at-large candidate.
Dropped from the bubble: Michigan, Missouri, USC
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Boise State Broncos (4-1), Mountain West
Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Washington State, 45-24
Why they're here: Not only are they dominating opponents, but they've got a Heisman Trophy hopeful in Ashton Jeanty, who leads the country in rushing touchdowns (16), yards per rush (10.9), yards per game (206.2) and yards after contact (755).
2. UNLV Rebels (4-1), Mountain West
Best win: Aug. 31 at Houston, 27-7
Why they're here: This is a talented team that is an overtime away (versus visiting Syracuse) from being undefeated and is still capable of winning the MW. That loss didn't damage the Rebels' chances of claiming the conference crown, but it evened the playing field with one-loss Boise State.
3. Tulane Green Wave (4-2), American Athletic
Best win: Sept. 21 at Louisiana, 41-33
Why they're here: In part, because James Madison dropped out after losing, but also because the Green Wave still have the best chance to win their conference (57.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. And as long as Tulane finishes as the committee's fifth-highest-ranked conference champion, the two losses will be moot. Both of those defeats were to ranked opponents (K-State and Oklahoma), giving the Green Wave a much better schedule strength than Army and Navy.
4. Navy Midshipmen (5-0), American Athletic
Best win: Sept. 21 vs. Memphis, 56-44
Why they're here: The offense has made significant strides this year, quarterback Blake Horvath has been one of the most productive and efficient quarterbacks in the country, and the win against Memphis was proof to take the Midshipmen seriously in the AAC race.
5. Army Black Knights (5-0), American Athletic
Best win: Saturday at Tulsa, 49-7
Why they're here: Their schedule is No. 133 in the country, ahead of only Liberty and right behind rival Navy. The difference between the two academies here is Navy's win against Memphis, which is 5-1 and could still win the American. Army, though, has the second-best chance to win the league (29.6%), behind Tulane (57.5%).