BYU coach Kalani Sitake isn't giving his players coachspeak about the 12-team College Football Playoff and the door it has opened for the once-independent program.
"These kids aren't dumb," said Sitake, whose Cougars are in their second year in the Big 12 but are in the first of the expanded playoff era.
It has been too difficult for too long as an independent to get a real shot at competing for the national title, he said, something the new 12-team format guarantees for the five highest-ranked conference champions.
"In order to get to the playoff in the past, you'd have to play perfect, literally perfect, and style points and all that stuff," he said. "And even then, it's not a guarantee that you're in. I mean, ask Florida State and others, right?"
Undefeated BYU is trending in the right direction, while Ole Miss took a significant step back with its home loss to Kentucky. Both teams are on the bubble this week.
Below is a snapshot of what the College Football Playoff selection committee might do today through five weeks of data. This is not a ranking. This is what the seeding and bracket would look like based on the committee's projected top 12 for this week -- plus a look at eight more teams currently on the bubble and a ranking of the five best schools from the Group of 5.
Jump to a topic:
Byes | First-round matchups
First four out | Next four out
Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
Note: Seeding is based on my projected top 12 from the CFP committee.
No. 1 seed Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tide moved into the top spot after their win against Georgia on Saturday, and earn the No. 1 seed as the SEC champion and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is based on Alabama also being the selection committee's No. 1 team on Selection Day. Alabama enters October with the best résumé in college football. The average playoff contender would have a 29% chance to start 4-0 against the Crimson Tide's schedule.
No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes would earn the No. 2 seed as the projected Big Ten champs and the second highest-ranked conference champion behind Alabama. Ohio State currently has the third-best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (16.8%), trailing only Texas and Alabama. Nobody, though, has a better chance to earn a bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champs than the Buckeyes (51.6%).
No. 3 seed Miami Hurricanes: The Canes would earn this seed as the ACC champions and the third-highest ranked conference champion. According to ESPN Research, Miami has the third-best chance in the country to earn a first-round bye (34.1%). The Canes also have the highest chance to win the ACC (36%) followed by Clemson (27.9%).
No. 4 seed Kansas State Wildcats: In spite of the head-to-head loss to BYU, K-State has earned this spot as the projected Big 12 champion this week. The Wildcats have strong wins over Tulane, Arizona and Oklahoma State, but one of the biggest differences between the two is at quarterback, where K-State's Avery Johnson accounted for five touchdowns that will play well in the committee room. Three of the Wildcats' next four games are on the road, though, starting Saturday against an improving Colorado team.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Winner plays: No. 4 Kansas State
Explaining the seeding: Boise State would earn this spot as the committee's fifth-highest ranked conference champion, and it would be the No. 12 seed at the expense of Ole Miss, which is No. 12 in the projected ranking by the committee. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the playoff, and in this case, the fifth conference champion, Boise State, is ranked outside of the committee's projected top 12. As for Texas, the Longhorns would be the SEC runner-up, but even as the No. 2-ranked team in the country, Texas couldn't be seeded any higher than No. 5 because the top four seeds are reserved for conference champions.
No. 9 Oregon Ducks at No. 8 Penn State Nittany Lions
Winner plays: No. 1 Alabama
Explaining the seeding: Big Ten opponents Oregon and Penn State don't play each other during the regular season, but it's possible they could meet in the conference championship game (if that happened, though, one of them would have replaced Ohio State above in the top four seeds and earn a first-round bye). In this scenario, Penn State would be the Big Ten's runner-up. According to ESPN Research, Penn State (33.8%) and Oregon (38.8%) have the second- and third-best chances, respectively, to reach the Big Ten championship game. Note the importance of the seeding -- and home-field advantage -- as the winner will face the best team in the country.
No. 11 Michigan Wolverines at No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers
Winner plays: No. 3 Miami
Explaining the seeding: This shows how different the seeding can be from the committee's ranking on Selection Day, as Tennessee was ranked No. 3. Because seeds 1-4 are reserved for conference champs, and the SEC runner-up earned the No. 5 seed, the Vols get bumped to No. 6. They would still earn a first-round home game, but a bye isn't out of the question moving forward. According to ESPN Research, Tennessee joins Texas and Alabama as the only SEC teams with at least a 15% chance of earning a first-round bye.
No. 10 Clemson Tigers at No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs
Winner plays: No. 2 Ohio State
Explaining the seeding: The selection committee does not consider rematches when voting for its final top 25 of the season, and it does not re-seed teams. Georgia beat Clemson 34-3 in the season opener at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, but this time the Bulldogs would have a true home-field advantage in the first round as the higher seed. After Georgia's loss to Alabama on Saturday, the Bulldogs now have the fourth-best chance to reach the SEC championship game (10.3%), behind Texas, Alabama and Tennessee. Clemson is on track to face Miami in the ACC championship game, but according to ESPN Research, Miami has the better chance to win the conference (36%). Clemson would earn an at-large spot here as the ACC runner-up.
First four out
Ole Miss Rebels: No team's playoff chances were hurt more in Week 5 than Ole Miss, which dropped from 41% to 35%. In this scenario, Ole Miss still would have been ranked No. 12 by the committee, but the Rebels would be bumped for the fifth highest-ranked conference champion, which is Boise State.
BYU Cougars: The Cougars rank second in ESPN's strength of record metric after wins against SMU and K-State, which are both ranked in the top 20 of ESPN's Football Power Index. They also nearly lost to Baylor. BYU now has the second-best chance to win the Big 12 (15.6%) behind Iowa State (20.4%).
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: The Irish increased their playoff chances by 10.2% with a statement win against Louisville on Saturday and now have the ninth-best chance to reach the field (46.1%). They've got to keep it up and look like a playoff team in the process against the No. 66-ranked remaining schedule in the country.
Boise State Broncos: Just because a Group of 5 team hasn't been projected in the committee's top 12 doesn't mean it won't eventually be. The Broncos face UNLV on Oct. 25 and host Oregon State in the regular-season finale, two opponents that can change the trajectory of their playoff path.
Next four out
Missouri Tigers: The Tigers have been held back a little because they haven't looked impressive (needing double overtime to beat Vanderbilt and sneaking past Boston College at home) and they've played the No. 120 schedule to this point.
Iowa State Cyclones: The undefeated Cyclones' victory at Iowa is the highlight on their résumé, and they just added a conference road win at Houston. The month of November will define their season, though, with trips to Kansas and Utah, and a regular-season finale against K-State.
Indiana Hoosiers: The undefeated Hoosiers are beating the teams they're expected to and in convincing fashion. ESPN Research gives IU at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games except the Nov. 23 trip to Ohio State.
USC Trojans: The Trojans got a little bit of a scare from Wisconsin at home before pulling away 38-21. ESPN Research gives USC at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games except for the rivalry game against Notre Dame. That could be a critical head-to-head result that determines which team gets the at-large bid.
Dropped from the bubble: Utah, Illinois, Louisville, LSU
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West)
Best win: Sept. 28 vs. Washington State, 45-24
Why they're here: The Broncos have a convincing win against what used to be a Pac-12 team, they have a good loss at Oregon and they have a Heisman contender in running back Ashton Jeanty, who leads the country in rushing yards (845) and yards per carry (10.3).
2. UNLV Rebels (Mountain West)
Best win: Sept. 13 at Kansas, 23-20
Why they're here: The quarterback change didn't slow down the Rebels. Instead, their chances to reach the playoff went up by 15% after a convincing win against Fresno State. Road wins against Kansas and Houston, which are a combined 2-8, have lost some luster.
3. James Madison Dukes (Sun Belt)
Best win: Sept. 21 at North Carolina, 70-50
Why they're here: The Dukes made headlines when they dropped 70 on the Tar Heels and then they followed with 63 points in a win against Ball State. JMU is rolling, but currently doesn't have any ranked opponents on its schedule.
4. Navy Midshipmen (American Athletic)
Best win: Sept. 21 vs. Memphis, 56-44
Why they're here: The win against Memphis trumps Army's best win, against 1-4 Temple, and the Midshipmen have a quarterback who leads the nation in total QBR, as Blake Horvath has a 95.8 rating.
5. Army Black Knights (American Athletic)
Best win: Sept. 26 at Temple, 42-14
Why they're here: Army's FBS opponents are a combined 4-11, none are ranked and none are Power 4 conference teams. They also have an FCS win against Lehigh from the Patriot League. Still, ESPN Research gives Army the second-best chance to win the AAC at 22.5% (behind two-loss Tulane, which could also play its way back into the bubble watch).