This month, there was arguably no bigger win than Alabama over Georgia on Saturday night, and no loss that has loomed larger than Notre Dame's home defeat to unranked Northern Illinois.
So how much will September losses by the Bulldogs and Irish matter in the end?
Even in the new era of the 12-team College Football Playoff, what happens in September will continue to influence the 13-member selection committee through Selection Day -- for better or for worse.
With games in the month of September officially over, here's a look at five playoff lessons learned after five weeks of results, followed by a projection of the selection committee's top 12 if the ranking were released today. Remember, this is NOT a projection of what it will look like on Selection Day. Rather, it's a snapshot of who's in the driver's seat now, based on what they have done to this point.
The 12-team playoff seeding will look different from this ranking as well. The top four highest-ranked conference champions receive byes, and the top five conference champions receive entry into the field.
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What we learned in September
Projecting the Top 12
What we learned in September
1. Alabama is a national title contender without Nick Saban. This was one of the sport's biggest questions this past offseason: How would the Tide fare in their first season without Saban? Well, just ask Georgia. After Alabama's win against the No. 2 Bulldogs, it's clear first-year coach Kalen DeBoer has maintained the Tide's track record of contending for a national title. Alabama outplayed Georgia so soundly in the first half that even a second-half run by the Dawgs wasn't enough. The win gave Alabama a critical edge in the SEC standings, and in the 12-team CFP, where the Tide are another step closer to a guaranteed spot as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions and a first-round bye. Alabama isn't a lock yet -- it still has trips against ranked SEC opponents Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. But to do what it did in the first half against Georgia's defense, which hadn't given up a touchdown all season, was evidence Alabama might be even better than it was a year ago.
2. Notre Dame isn't done yet. Many were quick to eliminate the Irish from the playoff race after their Week 2 home loss to Northern Illinois -- and it's still the most shocking upset of the season. Notre Dame kept its playoff hopes alive, though, with a 31-24 win against No. 15 Louisville on Saturday. That was a much-needed boost to Notre Dame's playoff résumé, which might have only one more win against a ranked opponent in USC. The independent Irish can't win a conference title to earn an automatic bid to the playoff, so their only path is through one of seven at-large spots. To secure one, they probably have to run the table and look good in the process. There aren't many chances to impress the committee with statement wins that can help compensate for the loss to NIU, so they need to hope Texas A&M, Louisville and USC are ranked on Selection Day -- or that undefeated Army or Navy are in the committee's top 25. Northern Illinois is a bad loss the committee won't forget, but if Notre Dame can finish 11-1, it will be in the debate for an at-large spot.
3. Miami and Clemson are the ACC's top playoff contenders. Florida State won the preseason hype, but Miami and Clemson are winning the ACC race. The Seminoles, who received a landslide 81 first-place votes in the preseason media poll, were eliminated with their 0-3 start that included losses to conference opponents Georgia Tech and Boston College. The Canes are undefeated, and Clemson has been on a tear since losing the season opener to Georgia. These teams don't play each other during the regular season but are on a collision course for the ACC championship game. According to ESPN Research, Miami and Clemson each have the highest percentages to reach the ACC title game, with both at least 42%. Louisville can still win the ACC and earn an automatic bid, but if the Cardinals are fighting for one of seven at-large spots, they'll lose the head-to-head tiebreaker now to Notre Dame.
4. The Big Ten is wide open. Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon are all undefeated and continue to find ways to win -- and so does Indiana. Michigan is undefeated in league play. And USC has a win and head-to-head tiebreaker against LSU. Heck, even Rutgers is 4-0. The reality is Ohio State looks like the best team in the conference -- and might be the best team in the country -- but the Buckeyes haven't been tested yet. That will change on Oct. 12 when they travel to Oregon, which earned a legitimate nonconference win against Boise State. And Penn State just defeated an undefeated, ranked Illinois team. Much like the SEC, the Big Ten is going to beat itself up during the heart of conference play. But the strong September start for multiple teams has allowed for some wiggle room as it relates to the at-large bids.
5. UNLV is still money in the CFP race. The five highest-ranked conference champions are guaranteed a spot in the playoff, which means someone from the Group of 5 leagues will earn a spot in the bracket. Undefeated UNLV opened conference play against Fresno State without its starting quarterback, Matthew Sluka, who decided to sit out the rest of the season over a $100,000 NIL payment he said was promised to him but never delivered. It didn't matter. Hajj-Malik Williams threw three touchdown passes and ran for another as the Rebels racked up 59 points. UNLV wasn't the only Group of 5 contender winning with style, though, as James Madison continued to cruise against Ball State 63-7, and Liberty is still undefeated but had to cancel its game against App State because of weather. The best team with the best résumé in September, though, is Boise State. The Broncos even have what the committee would consider a "good loss" at Oregon. Saturday's win against Washington State will help Boise State separate from UNLV and others if they can continue to win.
Projecting the Top 12
1. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0)
Why they could be here: Did you see that first half? It was only the second time in the past 20 years that Georgia had given up touchdowns on its first four defensive series of a game. The Bulldogs had no answer for quarterback Jalen Milroe, who completed 90% of his passes before halftime. The selection committee would be wowed by Alabama's early dominance and then its ability to respond after a furious Georgia comeback -- even if Georgia isn't as good as it was last year after so many departures to the NFL. Saturday's performance came two weeks after Alabama's lopsided road win at Wisconsin -- a team that just gave USC fits on the Trojans' home field. Alabama is checking all of the boxes for the committee's top spot.
Why they could be lower: It's hard to make a case for anyone else in the committee's top spot after what Alabama just did -- earned the best win in the country.
Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Alabama's chances of reaching the playoff increased to 92% with a win on Saturday. ESPN Research gives Alabama better than a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games, with the most difficult being Oct. 19 at Tennessee (54.1%).
2. Texas Longhorns (5-0)
Why they could be here: The Longhorns still have one of the best wins in the country -- Sept. 7 at Michigan -- and now have their first SEC win on their résumé after beating Mississippi State. It won't impress the committee as much as what happened on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, though. The Longhorns' road win against Michigan is the lone win against a ranked opponent, and while Michigan continues to find a way to win, it's clear the defending national champs aren't as talented as last year's group. The committee could also justify Texas dropping to No. 2 this week because the Longhorns lost two fumbles, had eight penalties and dropped a wide-open touchdown pass in a sloppy game but still won by 22 points.
Why they could be lower: Tennessee could make a case with a better résumé because of its win at Oklahoma and a neutral-site win against NC State, albeit a subpar Wolfpack team. The Vols also have a far more explosive passing game and one of the nation's top defenses. Texas is clearly one of the deepest and most talented teams in the country, though, as evidenced by its continued ability to win by double digits without its injured starting quarterback, Quinn Ewers.
Need to know: Even before Alabama hammered Georgia, ESPN Research gave Texas a 72.4% chance to beat the Bulldogs at home on Oct. 19. The Longhorns' two toughest remaining games come back-to-back in October, against rival OU and a week later against Georgia. They're projected to win both. During their first year in the SEC, the Longhorns avoid a regular-season meeting with Alabama but could face the Tide in the SEC championship game.
3. Tennessee Volunteers (4-0)
Why they could be here: Tennessee had a bye week but entered Saturday ranked No. 2 in the country in ESPN's strength of record metric after wins against Oklahoma and NC State. The Vols were also No. 1 in the country in total efficiency, matching the statistics with the résumé and building their case as one of the most complete teams in the country. Tennessee's wins against Oklahoma and NC State -- the highlights of their résumé -- continued to hold value, as both of those opponents won their respective Week 5 games.
Why they could be lower: Ohio State finally added a road win against a Power 4 opponent to its résumé, which could be enough for some committee members to have the Buckeyes ranked higher. Some might reward Ohio State for its playmakers at nearly every position -- running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, receivers Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith.
Need to know: Tennessee still has to play Alabama and Georgia, and we saw how that just unfolded in Tuscaloosa. The Vols need to go 2-0 against those teams to avoid a true debate in the committee meeting room. Without those wins, Tennessee will be counting on wins against NC State and OU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0)
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes earned their first road win and their first conference win on Saturday at Michigan State, putting together a fourth straight dominant performance. There's no question Ohio State has a playoff roster, but it still doesn't have the résumé. Entering Week 5, Ohio State was ranked No. 131 in the country in schedule strength, according to ESPN Research. Three straight home wins against unranked Group of 5 opponents Akron, Western Michigan and Marshall won't impress the committee, but beating Michigan State on the road is at least a step in the right direction.
Why they could be higher: The Buckeyes have been lights-out statistically, entering Saturday ranked No. 2 in the country with 7 yards per carry, No. 1 in the country in red zone efficiency, No. 5 in yards per game (552) and equally as good defensively. The committee takes into account the quality of opponent those numbers came against, but that's also balanced out with the fact Ohio State left no doubt in any of those games that it was the better team.
Need to know: Iowa had a bye week to prepare for Saturday's trip to Columbus, a game ESPN Research gives Ohio State an 88.1% chance to win. The Buckeyes have the best chance of any team in the country (23.4%) to win out.
5. Georgia Bulldogs (3-1)
Why they could be here: There is such a thing as a "good loss" in the committee meeting room, and Saturday at Alabama certainly qualifies. Georgia's second-half comeback was evidence the gap between Alabama and Georgia is as close as the final score indicated. Still, the Bulldogs now have a loss and the teams ranked above them don't.
Why they could be lower: The committee does pay attention to the entire game and would know how soundly Georgia was beaten in the first half. Even so, the coaches and former players in the room would point out Georgia's second-half adjustments and the leadership of quarterback Carson Beck.
Need to know: If Saturday's game wasn't enough for you, these teams could technically play each other two more times -- again in the SEC championship game, and once more in the playoff, if the seeding were to fall the right way. If Georgia doesn't win the SEC, it could get a big boost from its win against Clemson, should the Tigers win the ACC. That could be a significant separator in the committee meeting room that would help the Bulldogs earn a first-round home game if they are seeded 5-8.
6. Penn State Nittany Lions (4-0)
Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions boosted their résumé with an important win against a previously undefeated and ranked Big Ten opponent. How they won also mattered, as the defense had seven sacks -- its most against an AP-ranked opponent over the past 15 years, according to ESPN Research. The Nittany Lions' road nonconference win at West Virginia is also something the committee will use to separate Penn State from some other contenders that didn't play a Power 4 nonconference opponent.
Why they could be lower: Illinois is the only ranked opponent Penn State has defeated, and the committee would know it was an ugly win against Bowling Green, which is now 1-3.
Need to know: Penn State, which hosts UCLA on Saturday, should be undefeated heading into its season-defining three-game stretch. The Nittany Lions have back-to-back October trips to USC and Wisconsin before hosting Ohio State to start November.
7. Oregon Ducks (4-0)
Why they could be here: The Ducks have a decent nonconference win against Boise State that looks even better after the Broncos beat Washington State on Saturday night. As Oregon's offensive line has improved, so has the Ducks' passing game with transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel. The committee would notice the progress since the pedestrian season-opening win against FCS Idaho, but Oregon lacks a true statement win to be ranked much higher.
Why they could be lower: The selection committee could favor what it has seen from Miami's offense, led by transfer quarterback Cam Ward. A win against UCLA, which has won only one game so far this season, won't impress the committee much, even though it was a true road game.
Need to know: ESPN Research gives Oregon at least a 50% chance to win each of its remaining games except Oct. 12 against Ohio State. Though that loss would be devastating to Oregon's chances of winning the Big Ten, it would also put the Ducks under tremendous pressure with a difficult backstretch to the season. Oregon hosts a much-improved Illinois team but also has to go to Michigan and Wisconsin.
8. Miami Hurricanes (5-0)
Why they could be here: Not until Friday night had the Canes looked vulnerable. Miami had been crushing every opponent, averaging 49.4 points while holding its opponents to no more than 17 points. As dysfunctional as the 2-2 Florida Gators have been, the committee would still recognize the difficulty of beating an in-state rival on the road in the season opener. And as controversial as the final play of the game was against Virginia Tech, the Canes earned their first win against an ACC opponent.
Why they could be lower: Miami has yet to leave its own state and has yet to play a ranked opponent.
Need to know: One of the questions for the selection committee will be how it views officiating calls that help determine a game. It's a topic that could come up when the group meets for the first time in November and discusses Miami. Some committee members might think Virginia Tech scored a touchdown and Miami should have lost -- does that change how they rank the Canes, or do they go with the final call on the field without question? Or does it become a moot point because the Canes don't give the group any more reasons to question their résumé?
9. Clemson Tigers (3-1)
Why they could be here: The Tigers have outscored their opponents 165-69 during their three-game winning streak since losing the season opener to Georgia. The offense is clicking, with three straight games of at least 40 points. None of those three opponents, though, are ranked, and only NC State finished September above .500, thanks to wins against Western Carolina, Louisiana Tech and NIU.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee has lauded strong quarterback play before, and Cade Klubnik has begun to flourish. He has three games this season with three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown, the most in the FBS. Though Clemson's stats have come against lesser competition, the Tigers have added style points to their résumé.
Need to know: If Clemson doesn't win the ACC, it could have a difficult time earning a one of the seven at-large bids if some of its opponents can't play their way into the committee's ranking. The Tigers would also lose the head-to-head tiebreaker to Georgia, which could be competing for an at-large bid if it doesn't win the SEC. Right now, Louisville is the only ranked opponent Clemson faces during the regular season -- and the Cardinals just lost to Notre Dame.
10. Michigan Wolverines (4-1)
Why they could be here: Michigan continues to win with its defense and running game, but the selection committee will question the Wolverines' passing game. Alex Orji completed 10 of 18 passes for 86 yards and a touchdown, but he also threw an interception that bolstered Minnesota's fourth-quarter comeback. The Wolverines gave up 21 fourth-quarter points to Minnesota. Back-to-back Big Ten wins against USC and Minnesota keep them in the mix, but five straight September home games and the lopsided loss to Texas will keep them lower on the list. It helped that USC battled back to beat Wisconsin at home, sustaining the value of Michigan's Sept. 21 win against the Trojans.
Why they could be lower: The Wolverines haven't been passing the so-called eye test, squandering a 24-3 lead going into the fourth quarter Saturday. The lack of a passing game isn't sustainable, and while the selection committee doesn't look ahead, it might already hold them back.
Need to know: After its bye week, Michigan has back-to-back trips at Washington and Illinois, two tricky opponents that Michigan can't afford to lose to. Why? Because the Wolverines still have to play Oregon and Ohio State in November.
11. Kansas State Wildcats (4-1)
Why they could be here: The Wildcats avoided elimination Saturday with their win against Oklahoma State, and they were also able to beat Arizona earlier this month, which Utah could not do Saturday. The selection committee might consider Notre Dame for this spot after the Irish beat a ranked Louisville team, but K-State's loss at BYU is far more respectable than Notre Dame's home loss to NIU. K-State's wins against Tulane, Arizona and Oklahoma State are all better than anything Ole Miss has on its résumé.
Why they could be lower: With K-State and Ole Miss both 4-1, the committee would compare them side by side, but with Ole Miss losing at home to an unranked team, and K-State losing on the road to an undefeated team, the losses would factor into their decision. If they voted Ole Miss ahead of K-State, it would simply be because they think the Rebels are a more talented team.
Need to know: The selection committee values head-to-head results and could have undefeated BYU here instead because of the Cougars' 38-9 Sept. 21 win. The question is if K-State's wins against Oklahoma State and Arizona are enough to overcome that in the committee meeting room. There have been times in the past when the head-to-head result has been outweighed by other factors. BYU also has a strong road win at ACC opponent SMU. This would be a decent debate.
12. Ole Miss Rebels (4-1)
Why they could be here: If Ole Miss is going to compete for a national title, it shouldn't have lost at home to Kentucky. The saving grace is the Wildcats gave Georgia fits, too, and the defense appears to be legit. Not only does Ole Miss have a stain on its résumé, it doesn't have anything to compensate for it. The Rebels haven't played any ranked opponents, and the only team they've defeated with a winning record in September is Georgia Southern from the Sun Belt.
Why they could be higher: The Ole Miss defense gave up only two touchdowns in that game, and Jaxson Dart is still a talented quarterback whose fourth-and-11 conversion was a key moment in the game. (A moment his poor decision to take a sack two plays later negated.)
Need to know: The loss to Kentucky was devastating because the Rebels needed some wiggle room heading into the heart of SEC play. Ole Miss is on the road in four of its next six games, including Oct. 12 at LSU. They also host Oklahoma and Georgia. Because the nonconference lineup was so weak, Ole Miss probably needs a winning record against LSU, Oklahoma and Georgia. And, of course, to avoid any more stumbles along the way.
Based on the rankings above, the top four seeds would be: No. 1 Alabama (SEC champ), No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ), No. 3 Miami (ACC champ) and No. 4 Kansas State (Big 12 champ). Each would receive a bye. Eight remaining seeds would play on-campus first-round games. Those matchups would be: No. 12 TBD (fifth conference champ) at No. 5 Texas; No. 11 Michigan at No. 6 Tennessee; No. 10 Clemson at No. 7 Georgia; and No. 9 Oregon at No. 8 Penn State.
Ole Miss, ranked No. 12 above, would not make this version of the playoff with the fifth conference champion from the Group of 5 taking its place.