From 2006 to 2010, teams from outside college football's power conferences finished the season in the AP top 10 seven times, including a pair that landed in the top two (Utah in 2008, TCU in 2010). Boise State beat Oklahoma in a BCS bowl in 2006, Utah beat Alabama in 2008, and after two mid-majors (TCU and Boise) were forced to play each other in a major 2009 bowl, TCU was somehow allowed into the Rose Bowl in 2010 and beat Wisconsin.
As the push for a college football playoff grew, one of the main reasons for it was to grant these teams well-earned access to the national title race. In the seminal "Death to the BCS," authors Dan Wetzel, Jeff Passan and Josh Peter proposed a 16-team playoff with bids for the champions of all 11 FBS conferences, and it didn't feel particularly outlandish. (It is, after all, how virtually every other level of football, from high school to smaller colleges to the NFL, works.)
The sport's ruling powers responded as monopolies always do: They successfully acquired some of the opposition and tried to starve the rest of it. TCU (Big 12) and Utah (Pac-12) joined power conferences in 2012, while Cincinnati (after top-10 finishes in 2020 and '21), UCF (top-11 in 2017 and '18), Houston (top-10 in 2015) and BYU (top-20 in 2020 and '21) all joined the Big 12 in 2023 and SMU hopped up to the ACC in 2024.
In the meantime, the College Football Playoff we actually got featured only four teams -- one extra game, basically -- and in 10 years of the four-team playoff, 39 of 40 bids went to power-conference teams. The money became even more skewed toward power conferences, and a weakened Group of 5 saw results diminish. The best G5 teams were guaranteed a spot in a New Year's Six bowl and won three of their first four; they've won only one of the past six. The results have remained mostly respectable, but last year saw the first genuinely lopsided matchup to date: Oregon's 45-6 Fiesta Bowl pummeling of Liberty.
Now, with the mid-major ranks thinned and the money set to become even more ludicrously skewed toward the sport's powers, the Group of 5 finally gets access with the 12-team playoff. For the first time ever, we know that a G5 team will get a spot in the playoff field. And you know what? HELL, YES.
The G5 level constantly produces overachievers and great stories; over the past five seasons, 45 different G5 teams beat at least one power-conference team, and 14 finished with top-30 SP+ rankings. Troy and James Madison landed there just last season, and Tulane beat USC in the Cotton Bowl the year before. SP+ projections rarely are particularly kind to mid-majors because of turnover and recruiting rankings, but someone always produces high quality.
Thinned ranks or not, the G5 is going to produce exciting stories and fun teams, and at least one of them will get access to a title shot. Let's talk about who that may be.
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G5 Power Rankings | Sleeper contenders
Group of 5 games of the year
Group of 5 Power Rankings
Here are the top 10 G5 teams according to the preseason SP+ ratings. I'm including some experimental CFP odds for each team, plus their three toughest games (by SP+), top players and biggest question mark.
1. Boise State Broncos
SP+ rank: 39
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 79
CFP odds, per SP+: 10.6%
Three toughest games: at No. 3 Oregon (Sept. 7), No. 50 Oregon State (Nov. 30), No. 57 Washington State (Sept. 28)
Most playoff-worthy players: RB Ashton Jeanty, ILB Andrew Simpson, DE Ahmed Hassanein, WR Cameron Camper, LT Kage Casey, NB Ty Benefield
Biggest question mark: Why did the defense vanish? After ranking in the defensive SP+ top 30 in 2021-22, Boise State tumbled to 82nd last year. The run defense remained decent, but opponents enjoyed far too many explosive passes, and the Broncos ranked just 98th in yards allowed per dropback. The 2024 offense could be a thrill ride with Jeanty running the show and quarterback Maddux Madsen -- and/or five-star transfer Malachi Nelson, who will start the season on the second string -- throwing to Camper (an Indiana transfer) & Co. The secondary will be made up of nearly all seniors (and a sophomore star in Benefield), so there are few excuses. The defense has to improve for the Broncos to not only make the CFP but have a shot at an upset, and we'll get a pretty good Week 2 status update when the Broncos travel to Eugene.
2. Memphis Tigers
SP+ rank: 43
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 94
CFP odds, per SP+: 11.2%
Three toughest games: at No. 12 Florida State (Sept. 14), at No. 54 UTSA (Nov. 2), at No. 65 Tulane (Nov. 28)
Most playoff-worthy players: QB Seth Henigan, WR Roc Taylor, LB Chandler Martin, RT Xavier Hill, WR Demeer Blankumsee, LB Elijah Herring
Biggest question mark: Can the Tigers actually defend? If you're looking for a team capable of matching athleticism with a high-major opponent, Memphis is probably the best bet. Ryan Silverfield has put together a wonderfully athletic roster full of mid-three-star athletes and power-conference transfers, and in Seth Henigan he has a quarterback tons of coaches were hoping would enter the portal. This offense has the highest ceiling of any in the G5, but Memphis ranked 10th in offensive SP+ last year and 111th on defense. Can transfers change that? Silverfield brought in G5 stars -- end Javon Denis (Georgia State), linebacker Javante Mackey (Arkansas State), safety Tahj Ra-El (Old Dominion) and others -- and a power-conference tackling machine in Herring (Tennessee). With even a top-60 defense, this is easily the best team in the G5. It might need to be, considering the road challenges ahead.
3. Liberty Flames
SP+ rank: 48
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 134
CFP odds, per SP+: 15.8%
Three toughest games: at No. 59 Appalachian State (Sept. 28), No. 70 Western Kentucky (Nov. 23), at No. 114 Middle Tennessee State (Nov. 9)
Most playoff-worthy players: QB Kaidon Salter, RB Quinton Cooley, WR Treon Sibley, DE CJ Bazile Jr., RT Xavior Gray, NB Brylan Green
Biggest question mark: Defense and a nonexistent strength of schedule. Salter took to Jamey Chadwell's delightfully run-heavy offense like a duck to water in 2023, throwing for 2,876 yards and rushing for 1,154 (not including sacks). He and Cooley (1,401 rushing yards) led the Flames to an unbeaten record, and both return. There has been turnover at WR and on the line, but the Flames will score plenty of points. The defense had its moments in the turnover department -- and Green is an absolute star in the back -- but they were far too inefficient against the run to even slightly slow Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl. The CFP committee rewarded Liberty for an unbeaten record despite the lightest schedule in the FBS, and I'm curious to see whether their thinking this time around will be impacted by the Fiesta Bowl blowout. The schedule is just as light in 2024.
4. UTSA Roadrunners
SP+ rank: 54
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 86
CFP odds, per SP+: 5.2%
Three toughest games: at No. 5 Texas (Sept. 14), No. 43 Memphis (Nov. 2), at No. 86 Texas State (Sept. 7)
Most playoff-worthy players: OLB Jimmori Robinson, RG Cory Godinet, LB Kendrick Blackshire, WR JT Clark, WR Devin McCuin
Biggest question mark: An unknown passing game. The top three teams here all have good offenses and questionable defenses. UTSA breaks that mold. Jeff Traylor's Roadrunners were aggressive and efficient against both the run and pass in 2023, and while ace pass rusher Trey Moore transferred to Texas, UTSA still boasts depth and upside (in the form of a new batch of power-conference transfers like Blackshire) up front. On offense, however, the Roadrunners will have a new quarterback -- Owen McCown? Eddie Lee Marburger? Former Auburn and Alabama State dual threat Dematrius Davis Jr.? -- pitching the ball to a receiving corps that has major upside but doesn't have 1,100-yard receiver Joshua Cephus. Athletically, this is one of the deeper rosters in the G5, but we'll see whether the passing game can clear a high bar or an inefficient run game can raise its level a bit.
5. James Madison Dukes
SP+ rank: 56
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 121
CFP odds, per SP+: 7.9%
Three toughest games: at No. 40 North Carolina (Sept. 21), at No. 59 Appalachian State (Nov. 23), at No. 97 Georgia Southern (Oct. 19)
Most playoff-worthy players: RB Ayo Adeyi, CB Chauncey Logan, RG Cole Potts, LB Taurus Jones, QB Dylan Morris (maybe)
Biggest question mark: Can culture trump turnover? James Madison has been in the FBS for only two seasons, but with their sustained FCS success, the Dukes are one of the most proven G5 entities. They have the support and administrative commitment needed to thrive ... but they sure don't have many of last year's stars (or coaches) anymore. Can a strong football culture overcome that? Head coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana and took a number of stars with him; new head man Bob Chesney landed high-level transfers such as former blue-chipper Morris (Washington) and 1,000-yard rusher Adeyi (North Texas), plus small-school stars like defensive end Eric O'Neill (Long Island) and linebacker Jacob Dobbs (Holy Cross). Is success a plug-and-play matter for JMU? Can culture drive the Dukes to a couple of big, necessary road wins? Upside remains high, but there is so much turnover.
6. Appalachian State Mountaineers
SP+ rank: 59
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 96
CFP odds, per SP+: 4.2%
Three toughest games: at No. 16 Clemson (Sept. 7), No. 48 Liberty (Sept. 28), at No. 72 Louisiana (Oct. 12)
Most playoff-worthy players: QB Joey Aguilar, WR Kaedin Robinson, DT Santana Hopper, S Jordan Favors, OLB Brendan Harrington, WR Christan Horn
Biggest question mark: A sieve of a run defense. After a frustrating 3-4 start, App State emerged as one of the G5's best teams late in 2023, winning six of seven and improving dramatically on both offense and defense. The Mountaineers return a 3,700-yard passer in Aguilar, plus most of his receiving corps; this offense should be good even with turnover on the line. But despite its late-year improvement, App still finished 109th in rushing success rate allowed. That's not going to cut it against strong rushing teams like Clemson and Liberty. The front six was ridiculously young, and coach Shawn Clark seems to be banking on experience and development to paper over last year's cracks. While he brought in a number of transfer DBs, he's mostly riding with last year's personnel up front. We'll see whether that gamble pays off.
7. Fresno State Bulldogs
SP+ rank: 63
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 80
CFP odds, per SP+: 3.6%
Three toughest games: at No. 7 Michigan (Aug. 31), at No. 37 UCLA (Nov. 30), No. 57 Washington State (Oct. 12)
Most playoff-worthy players: C/G Mose Vavao, LT Jacob Spomer, DT Jacob Holmes, RB Malik Sherrod, S Dean Clark
Biggest question mark: A sudden coaching change. Jeff Tedford just couldn't trust his health. The 62-year-old won 19 games in two years after returning as Fresno State's head man and appeared to be ready for a push toward another Mountain West title, but after stepping aside late last season to address health issues, he ended up retiring for good this summer. Assistant Tim Skipper was named interim head coach for the 2024 season. Sometimes surprise summer retirements work out just fine in the short term (Oklahoma finished No. 3 in the country when Lincoln Riley suddenly replaced Bob Stoops in 2017), and sometimes they don't (Ohio collapsed to 3-9 in Tim Albin's first year as Frank Solich's replacement). But Skipper certainly inherits a talented roster, from QB Mikey Keene to a strong skill corps and maybe the best line in the G5.
8. Troy Trojans
SP+ rank: 64
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 103
CFP odds, per SP+: 3.1%
Three toughest games: at No. 24 Iowa (Sept. 14), at No. 43 Memphis (Sept. 7), at No. 72 Louisiana (Nov. 23)
Most playoff-worthy players: RG Daniel King, LB Jordan Stringer, LT Derrick Graham
Biggest question mark: So much turnover. As with James Madison, the Trojans will be hoping that culture overcomes a major lack of continuity. The two-time defending Sun Belt champs head into 2024 without last year's head coach, starting quarterback, 1,600-yard rusher Kimani Vidal, four of the top five receiving targets, most of the two-deep on both lines and basically the entire secondary. New head coach Gerad Parker did a nice job of reeling in transfers and JUCOs to plump up the two-deep, and Troy is used to fielding relatively transient rosters. But it feels like only the uniforms will resemble the teams that went 23-5 over the past two seasons. Can quarterback Goose Crowder and small-sample all-stars like running back Damien Taylor and cornerback Damaje Yancey simply pick up where the last stars left off?
9. Tulane Green Wave
SP+ rank: 65
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 87
CFP odds, per SP+: 3.1%
Three toughest games: at No. 13 Oklahoma (Sept. 14), No. 17 Kansas State (Sept. 7), No. 43 Memphis (Nov. 28)
Most playoff-worthy players: RB Makhi Hughes, DT Adin Huntington, WR Yulkeith Brown, C Vincent Murphy, OLB Tyler Grubbs
Biggest question mark: Is the new explosiveness as good as the old explosiveness? Jon Sumrall immediately lifted Troy's level when he took over two years ago; if he does the same thing at Tulane, opportunity could present itself. Tulane plays both Kansas State and Oklahoma early, then ends the regular season hosting Memphis. Pull an upset early, and the Wave will be in great shape. Tulane's 2024 fate could be tied to whether former blue-chippers play like it. Sumrall landed young, high-profile transfers in quarterback Ty Thompson (Oregon) and receivers Mario Williams (USC) and Shazz Preston (Alabama) in addition to a number of smaller-school defensive stars, but they'll be replacing particularly explosive players in receivers Chris Brazzell II and Lawrence Keys III and corners Lance Robinson and Jarius Monroe. Explosiveness was a strength of Willie Fritz's recent Tulane teams. Will that remain the case?
10. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
SP+ rank: 70
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 81
CFP odds, per SP+: 3.6%
Three toughest games: at No. 4 Alabama (Aug. 31), at No. 48 Liberty (Nov. 23), at No. 73 Boston College (Sept. 28)
Most playoff-worthy players: CB Anthony Johnson Jr., QB TJ Finley, LG Blake Austin, CB Kent Robinson
Biggest question mark: Is offense-defense balance actually possible? In 2019 and '20, Tyson Helton's Hilltoppers produced average rankings of 115.5 in offensive SP+ and 53.0 on defense. In the three years since a drastic offensive overhaul, they've averaged rankings of 33.0 on offense and 95.0 on defense. They've won at least eight games in four of Helton's five seasons, but they've never achieved anything resembling balance, something that's helpful when you're looking to jump from eight or nine wins to double digits. Finley, a Texas State transfer, should fit right in at quarterback, and WKU should score plenty of points again. But the Hilltoppers were 123rd in rushing success rate allowed in 2023, and beating Liberty and Boston College on the road will require massive improvement in that regard.
High-upside dark horses
Here are five teams (listed alphabetically) I like more than my numbers do, likely because they have either a particular amount of upside or particularly proven units.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
SP+ rank: 80
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 92
CFP odds, per SP+: 3.0%
Three toughest games: at No. 9 Notre Dame (Sept. 21), at No. 75 Northwestern (Aug. 31), No. 62 Cincinnati (Sept. 14)
Most playoff-worthy players: DE Brian Ugwu, LB Matt Salopek, LB Ty Wise, RT Reid Holskey, LT Will Jados, CB Raion Strader
Biggest question mark: Um, scoring. Over its last 11 games of 2023, Miami never allowed more than 21 points. Chuck Martin's RedHawks finished a nearly elite 12th in defensive SP+, and despite an injury to quarterback Brett Gabbert, they won their last five MAC games (average score: 22-11) to earn their first conference title in four years. But they also scored a total of 29 points in three losses, and they've ranked in the offensive SP+ top 90 just once in six years. Gabbert is back, and the offensive line has size and experience, but while defense is the reason the RedHawks are on this list, regression of some sort on that side of the ball is almost inevitable after such heights. They get shots at three power-conference teams, but they'll need their best offensive production in years to make a CFP push.
Texas State Bobcats
SP+ rank: 86
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 129
CFP odds, per SP+: 1.8%
Three toughest games: at No. 64 Troy (Oct. 3), No. 54 UTSA (Sept. 7), at No. 84 South Alabama (Nov. 29)
Most playoff-worthy players: DE Ben Bell, QB Jordan McCloud, RB Ismail Mahdi, WR Joey Hobert, DT Tavian Coleman
Biggest question mark: Epic defensive breakdowns. Over the 10 years before coach GJ Kinne and his wide-open offense arrived in San Marcos, Texas State played mostly forgettable ball, averaging a 110.6 offensive SP+ ranking and a 109.1 defensive SP+ ranking and winning between two and four games for eight straight years. Kinne and transfer QB TJ Finley showed up, and poof, the Bobcats were awesome on offense. They surged to 37th in offensive SP+ and 19th in points per drive, and while Finley slipped away to Western Kentucky, James Madison transfer McCloud is now in town. He could be even better than Finley. Even with a breakout star in Ben Bell, however, the Bobcats' defense didn't even slightly improve last year. Kinney brought another load of transfers to town, and Bell really is awesome, but the Bobcats need epic improvement on D to be a playoff-worthy team.
Toledo Rockets
SP+ rank: 87
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 131
CFP odds, per SP+: 3.4%
Three toughest games: at No. 55 Mississippi State (Sept. 14), at No. 70 WKU (Sept. 21), No. 80 Miami (Ohio) (Oct. 5)
Most playoff-worthy players: LB Daniel Bolden, WR Jerjuan Newton, WR Junior Vandeross III, OLB D'Andre Ragin, TE Anthony Torres
Biggest question mark: A brand new offensive line. From the standpoint of recruiting rankings, Toledo is almost always the gold standard in the MAC. Jason Candle recruits well at a high school level, and he has proved effective at landing power-conference transfers as well. Quarterback Dequan Finn transferred to Baylor, but the Rockets still have veteran Tucker Gleason and a loaded receiving corps. And after pulling off Candle's best defensive SP+ ranking (32nd) ever last year, they return a decent nine of the 18 players with 200-plus snaps last season. (Although they do lose corner Quinyon Mitchell, a first-round NFL pick.) Things look pretty good ... aside from the smoking crater that is the offensive line. Last year's top six are all gone, including two first-team all-MAC performers, and only one returnee saw more than 50 snaps in 2023. Depth is all sorts of tenuous up front, and quality is unknown.
UNLV Rebels
SP+ rank: 82
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 102
CFP odds, per SP+: 1.5%
Three toughest games: at No. 33 Kansas (Sept. 14), at No. 50 Oregon State (Oct. 19), No. 39 Boise State (Oct. 26)
Most playoff-worthy players: WR Ricky White III, RT Tiger Shanks, LB Jackson Woodard, DT Jalen Dixon, QB Matthew Sluka, CB Tony Grimes
Biggest question mark: Massive variance on defense. Barry Odom's first season as UNLV head coach was a revelation. Thanks to an offense led by coordinator Brennan Marion and quarterback Jayden Maiava, the Rebels surged from 106th to 32nd in offensive SP+, and after winning seven games in three years, they won nine in 2023. Maiava transferred, but Odom landed FCS gems in transfers Matthew Sluka (Holy Cross) and Hajj-Malik Williams (Campbell). White is one of the best receivers in the country, too. The reason the Rebels are projected only 82nd overall, however, is the defense -- it remained mostly dismal last fall. Odom brought in double-digit defensive transfers, and newcomers like safeties Jalen Catalon (Texas) and Malik Chavis (Arkansas) could make an instant impact. But as with so many other teams on this list, the defense needs massive improvement if relevance is to be achieved. We'll see.
South Florida Bulls
SP+ rank: 83
SP+ strength of schedule rank: 71
CFP odds, per SP+: 1.1%
Three toughest games: at No. 4 Alabama (Sept. 7), No. 19 Miami (Sept. 21), No. 43 Memphis (Oct. 11)
Most playoff-worthy players: CB Aamaris Brown-Bunkley, QB Byrum Brown, RB Ta'Ron Keith, LB Jhalyn Shuler, RG Zane Herring, WR Sean Atkins
Biggest question mark: Tempo works better with offensive efficiency. There were lots of great turnaround stories last year, but Alex Golesh immediately flipping USF from destitution to relevance was near the top of the list. The Bulls had gone just 4-29 in three previous seasons before charging to 7-6 (and annoying the hell out of Alabama), and with a freshman quarterback (Byrum Brown), no less! And maybe the most encouraging aspect of the turnaround is that the Bulls still have obvious areas for improvement. Their success was driven by extreme tempo -- Golesh is a former Josh Heupel assistant, after all -- but they ranked just 106th in success rate and went three-and-out 28% of the time (57th). If further maturation from Brown and a veteran offensive line produces more consistency, as it should, the Bulls could take things to a completely different level. (It probably goes without saying that the defense, which improved only to 117th in defensive SP+, needs to help more too. But I've written enough in this piece already.)
The biggest G5 games of 2024
If you mash all the "toughest games" above into a single list, you end up with a pretty good schedule of the biggest games of the G5 season.
Week 1: Western Kentucky at Alabama, Fresno State at Michigan, Miami (Ohio) at Northwestern. It's too much to ask for those first two games to produce an upset, but Miami is 7-3 all time against Northwestern and beat the Wildcats with a worse team just two years ago.
Week 2: Boise State at Oregon, Appalachian State at Clemson, USF at Alabama, Troy at Memphis, UTSA at Texas State, Kansas State at Tulane. UTSA-Texas St. and Troy-Memphis could be fun eliminators, but SP+ also gives those first three games about a 17% chance -- 1-in-6 -- of producing a mammoth upset. Big week here.
Week 3: UTSA at Texas, Memphis at Florida State, Tulane at Oklahoma, Troy at Iowa, Toledo at Mississippi State, Cincinnati at Miami (Ohio), UNLV at Kansas. Three major G5 contenders go up against three AP top-20 teams here, and SP+ says there's a 27% chance that either UTSA, Memphis or Tulane pulls an upset.
Week 4: James Madison at North Carolina, Toledo at Western Kentucky, Miami (Ohio) at Notre Dame, Miami at USF. Miami plays another huge game, Toledo-WKU play another eliminator, and JMU gets its first big test.
Week 5: Liberty at Appalachian State, Washington State at Boise State, Western Kentucky at Boston College. If Liberty doesn't win this one, another 13-0 regular season starts to look awfully likely.
Week 6: Miami (Ohio) at Toledo, Texas State at Troy, Memphis at USF. Last year, Memphis and USF combined for 109 points. I demand at least that many again.
Week 7: Appalachian State at Louisiana, Washington State at Fresno State. By this point, we'll have a good idea of the G5 pecking order, and these next few weeks will be mostly about the favorites holding form.
Week 8: James Madison at Georgia Southern, UNLV at Oregon State.
Week 10: Memphis at UTSA, Boise State at UNLV. This pair of games could be very big.
Week 11: Liberty at Middle Tennessee State.
Week 13: Western Kentucky at Liberty, James Madison at Appalachian State, Troy at Louisiana.
Week 14: Memphis at Tulane, Oregon State at Boise State, Fresno State at UCLA, Texas State at South Alabama. A nice blast of intrigue at the end here (and maybe the first of two Memphis-Tulane games in two weeks?).