In the new 12-team College Football Playoff, one conference can technically get as many as eight teams into the bracket -- an unlikely scenario, but something the rules allow. Georgia coach Kirby Smart told ESPN last month it "would be awesome to get four" teams from the SEC into the field.
"I think that would be shooting the moon," he said, "and three is probably more realistic."
It's our turn to try to shoot the moon and predict the historic, inaugural 12-team CFP field. In the new playoff system, the five highest-ranked conference champions will earn a chance to compete for the national title along with the next seven highest-ranked teams.
"In the Big Ten we have to go to someone else's stadium in our league five times and duke it out," Nebraska coach Matt Rhule said. "But I think we'll have a lot of access to the College Football Playoff. I think four teams from this league should get in every year because this is the best league. This is the NFL of college football, in my mind."
It's impossible to know in August what Selection Day will look like on Dec. 8, but that's not going to stop us from trying.
Every. Single. Week.
Welcome to the CFP Bubble Watch, which will be updated every week during the season. The preseason edition includes the predicted 12-team bracket, who gets first-round byes, the first four out, the next four out, and how the Group of 5 conference champions will stack up.
Jump to a topic:
Byes | First-round matchups
First four out | Next four out
Group of 5
Projected 12-team bracket
First-round byes
No. 1 seed Georgia Bulldogs: The Bulldogs will earn the top seed as the winner of the SEC and the highest-ranked conference champion. This is based on Georgia also being the selection committee's No. 1 team in its final ranking on Selection Day. According to ESPN Analytics, Georgia has the best chance (47%) of any team to reach the SEC title game. What separates the Bulldogs from everyone else, though, is that they are projected to rank in the top three in offense and defense. Veteran quarterback Carson Beck will lead an offense that reloaded with some help from the transfer portal, and the Bulldogs' defense has been the most dominant in the country over the past three seasons. Georgia returns three of its top five tacklers from last year.
No. 2 seed Ohio State Buckeyes: The Buckeyes will earn this seed as the projected Big Ten champs and the second-highest-ranked conference champion. The Buckeyes will have enough offensive talent around new starting quarterback Will Howard that he doesn't have to be a superstar. He just has to manage the offense and get the ball to his playmakers without turning it over. Ohio State's defense emerged under coordinator Jim Knowles last year to be one of the best in the country, and that trend should continue. Ohio State might lose to Oregon in Autzen Stadium, but the Buckeyes will snap their three-game losing streak to rival Michigan and beat the Ducks in a rematch in the Big Ten title game.
No. 3 seed Florida State Seminoles: The Seminoles will earn this spot as the ACC champs and the third-highest-ranked conference champion. FSU is a little different, though, because in this prediction, it would be No. 5 in the committee's final ranking on Selection Day -- behind SEC runner-up Texas and Big Ten runner-up Oregon. As long as FSU finishes as one of the four highest-ranked conference champs, though, it will earn a first-round bye -- even if it's not in the committee's top four on ranking day. Florida State answered the committee's top question from last season when it added transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei to the lineup.
No. 4 seed Utah Utes: The Utes will earn the final first-round bye as the projected winners of the Big 12 and the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion. Utah would be the most glaring change between the committee's final ranking and what the seeding looks like. This prediction has Utah at No. 8 on Selection Day -- behind all of the aforementioned teams and Notre Dame and Ole Miss. But because the Utes are a conference champion, they earn a boost in the seeding. Utah enters a wide-open Big 12 conference, but with the return of veteran coach Kyle Whittingham, quarterback Cam Rising and a perpetually stingy defense, the Utes have all of the pieces in place to win the league the first year they enter it.
First-round matchups (on campus)
No. 12 Boise State Broncos at No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Winner plays: No. 4 Utah
Explaining the seeding: Mountain West Conference champion Boise State will finish the season ranked outside of the committee's top 12 but still earn the No. 12 seed as the committee's fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. Even though Texas finishes as the SEC runner-up -- and the committee's No. 3 team in its final top 25 ranking -- in this prediction, the Longhorns can't finish any higher than the No. 5 seed because the top four seeds go to conference champions.
No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 8 Ole Miss Rebels
Winner plays: No. 1 Georgia
Explaining the seeding: Now that all five of the conference champions are accounted for, this is where the bracket is composed entirely of at-large bids. When transitioning from ranking to seeding, the selection committee does not factor in possible rematches. If Alabama wins this first-round game, it would see Georgia for a second time this season, as the two teams also play on Sept. 28 in Tuscaloosa. Ole Miss would also play Georgia again, as the Rebels host the Bulldogs on Nov. 9. Alabama and Ole Miss don't play each other during the regular season.
No. 11 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 6 Oregon Ducks
Winner plays: No. 3 Florida State
Explaining the seeding: As the Big Ten runner-up, Oregon would finish No. 4 on Selection Day in the committee's final ranking, but because the Ducks didn't win the Big Ten -- and are ranked behind SEC runner-up Texas -- they would earn the No. 6 seed. Penn State would be the Big Ten's third-place team, and this would be the first time they would face the Ducks, as the two teams don't play during the regular season.
No. 10 Miami Hurricanes at No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Winner plays: No. 2 Ohio State
Explaining the seeding: As an independent, Notre Dame can't earn a first-round bye because it can't be a conference champion. Even if the Irish are undefeated and the committee's No. 1 overall team on Selection Day, the highest seed they can earn is No. 5 -- behind the top four conference champions. The best-case scenario for Notre Dame in this system is hosting a first-round home game. Miami is predicted to finish as the ACC runner-up. There are no rematches here, but there could be if the ranking fell differently. Miami and FSU play each other on Oct. 26. They could play each other again in the ACC title game -- and a third time in the CFP bracket. It would be an unusual circumstance, but not impossible.
First four out
LSU Tigers: The Tigers will finish No. 12 in the selection committee's ranking on Selection Day, but because the five highest-ranked champions earn a spot in the bracket, LSU gets bumped out in favor of Boise State (see above). The Tigers will finish with three losses -- to Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Alabama -- and just miss the cut.
Missouri Tigers: Mizzou will lose to Alabama and Oklahoma, raising questions about its strength of schedule in the committee meeting room. A 10-2 finish isn't an unreasonable expectation, but the committee will still put strength of schedule under the microscope in its debates. If Missouri finishes with a better record than LSU, they could be flip-flopped here, but either way, both miss the cut.
Tennessee Volunteers: The Vols will show improvement from a year ago, but they will be stuck on the bubble because of road losses to Oklahoma and Georgia and a possible home loss to Alabama. The biggest question remains in the secondary, which struggled last season and is under construction this year.
Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners will be better in Brent Venables' third season -- particularly on defense -- but it won't be reflected in their record because of a challenging first season in the SEC. OU has to replace all five starters on the offensive line and could have three or four road losses with trips to Auburn, Ole Miss, Mizzou and LSU.
Next four out
Michigan Wolverines: The defending national champs are all the way down here?! Well, Team No. 145 will look vastly different from the one that beat Washington in the national championship game last year, as coach Sherrone Moore takes over for Jim Harbaugh and leads an offense that returns just 28% of its offensive production from a year ago, according to SP+. The Wolverines could be a three-loss team with games against Texas, Oregon and Ohio State -- plus a possible trap game at Washington.
Kansas State Wildcats: The gap between the Wildcats and the top of the Big 12 isn't as significant as it looks here. Nine schools have at least a 10% chance to reach the conference title game, according to ESPN Analytics. K-State returns just 47% of its offensive production from last season, which ranks 108th out of 134 FBS teams, according to SP+. Quarterback Will Howard is now at Ohio State, but Avery Johnson, who played in eight games last year and started one, returns, along with leading rusher DJ Giddens.
Oklahoma State Cowboys: Coach Mike Gundy has led the Cowboys to a winning record in each of the past 18 seasons -- the third-longest active streak in the FBS -- but has yet to reach the playoff. Ollie Gordon II, the nation's leading rusher, returns, along with quarterback Alan Bowman, who is entering his seventh collegiate season. He was sacked only seven times in 514 dropbacks last year. The defense has seen a drop-off since former coordinator Jim Knowles left for Ohio State, but their ability to win close games could pay dividends this season.
Clemson Tigers: The Tigers will go as quarterback Cade Klubnik goes, and he needs to improve if Clemson is going to return to postseason relevancy. Klubnik ranked 11th out of 12 ACC quarterbacks last year with a 55.0 Total QBR. He'll get some help from running back Phil Mafah, who led the ACC in rushing touchdowns and ranked third in rushing yards per game after taking over for Will Shipley against NC State.
Group of 5 Power Rankings
1. Boise State Broncos (Mountain West): With the return of running back Ashton Jeanty and a deep defense, Boise State might be the most talented and complete Group of 5 team competing for a playoff bid. The Broncos return 18 starters for first-year coach Spencer Danielson.
2. UTSA Roadrunners (American Athletic): UTSA is in its second season in the American and will get a strong challenge from Tulane and Memphis for the conference title, but coach Jeff Traylor has made the program a conference contender. There are some questions this fall after the departure of key veterans, including seven-year quarterback Frank Harris.
3. Appalachian State Mountaineers (Sun Belt): App State hasn't had a losing season during its past decade of existence in the FBS, and its winning trend should continue this fall. Since joining the Sun Belt in 2014, the Mountaineers have won 95 games -- the most of any Group of 5 program over that span. The offense should again be well-balanced with the top four pass catchers returning along with quarterback Joey Aguilar.
4. Liberty Flames (Conference USA): ESPN Analytics gives Liberty the highest chance of any Group of 5 contender to win its conference at 42%, but the Flames will again have the worst schedule in the country (No. 134) and won't play a Power 4 opponent.
5. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (Mid-American): The RedHawks are looking to become the first team to win back-to-back MAC football titles since Northern Illinois in 2011 and 2012. ESPN Analytics gives them the best chance to win the league (20%), but Toledo is right behind them (17%). No MAC team has more than a 3% chance to qualify for the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.