HOUSTON -- Depending on final NFL draft decisions, Michigan and Washington project to be at or near the top in the total number of players picked.
We dove in on the NFL draft numbers earlier this year for both schools. Scouts wrote up 15 players on trips to Seattle this season, with the Huskies likely to have nearly a dozen players drafted. Scouts estimated Michigan would have 14 players picked, as they wrote up enough guys to reach the high teens.
That's a lot of work for scouts and a testament to the rosters assembled and developed by Kalen DeBoer and Jim Harbaugh.
So who will win when the teams face off Monday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN and ESPN app)? We went back to NFL executives, scouts and some coaches for the singular factor they believe will decide the game.
Here's how they see Monday night unfolding.
The team, the team, the team
According to one veteran NFL scout who has studied both teams, Michigan is the better one overall. In the middle of the season, some scouts suggested the Wolverines might not have a first-round pick in the upcoming draft. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy has begun to test that, as he's rising quickly, but his slight frame will keep him out of the highest-end conversations.
The most elite talent is in Michigan's younger classes, as tight end Colston Loveland, defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant and cornerback Will Johnson will be stars of 2025 mock drafts. Conservatively, all project as top-50 picks.
"I think Michigan is the better team all-around," the veteran scout said. "I think Washington's quarterback is better, and I think the wide receivers are better. Other than that, Michigan has every advantage. As you know, the more dominant quarterback can carry a team. I'll be really curious. It's a great matchup. I've said all along, these are the best teams I've seen all year and most consistent all the way around.
"Washington's left tackle is outstanding. The right tackle is very good. The interior linemen aren't bad, but Michigan is loaded up front. Michigan's defense keeps them in games. It's like body blow, body blow, body blow and then they knock you out. Washington has to withstand the blows. They need to protect the quarterback."
Stop Michael Penix Jr. with ball control
Michigan has been a paragon of offensive efficiency, even if some of its overall stats may be pedestrian. For example, the Wolverines are No. 46 in the FBS in yards per play.
But a deeper dive shows Michigan is sixth nationally in points per drive (3.1), fourth nationally in percentage (50) of scoring drives and have the fewest turnovers (3%) per drive of any team in the country.
The best testament to the Wolverines' effectiveness may be that they are the best among non-military academies in avoiding plays of zero or negative yards. And they are the country's sixth least penalized team, getting just two flags against Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
"I think the biggest factor will be the Michigan run game," a veteran NFL executive said. "They can eat up the clock. Long drives. Like that Penn State game when they chewed up eight minutes. Shorten the game and keep the ball out of Michael Penix's hands. Michigan's ability to run the football to grind yards and shorten the game will put stress on Washington every time."
It's worth noting Blake Corum may have looked the best he has this season in the Rose Bowl, including the game's signature offensive play when he ran in the winner from 17 yards in overtime. He also caught two balls for 35 yards and a touchdown.
Michigan broke a bunch of tendencies and showed a flurry of new wrinkles against Alabama, a standout playcalling performance by Sherrone Moore. Part of Moore's master class was going away from what Alabama prepared for, as Michigan lined up in 11 personnel -- one tight end sets -- about half as often as it normally does.
According to ESPN Stats & Information, Michigan lines up in 11 personnel the third most of any team in college football. Against Alabama, the Wolverines did it just 22% and exploited the edges in the run game.
Strength on strength
At Saturday's media day, Washington's 6-foot-4, 317-pound offensive tackle Troy Fautanu revealed he doesn't wear pants very often. He'll endure the cold and rain in Seattle in shorts, as it's difficult to find pants to fit around his massive thighs.
"I just don't have many pairs of pants," he said. "It was kind of hard to find them growing up. So that's been very difficult all my life. It hasn't been just recently, it's been all my life."
When breaking down the game, a majority of the scouts, executives and coaches brought up Washington's offensive line. And that conversation quickly shifted to just how massive Fautanu is -- and how fluid he is for his size.
One scout picked Washington to win because he believes in its strength -- the Huskies offensive line won the Joe Moore Award as the nation's best -- against Michigan's defensive strength up front.
"I'll take Washington," the scout said. "I think it's going to be really close, but the front is Washington's strength. Both tackles are NFL tackles and the center is OK. They already played the best [defensive] tackles they may play against Texas. And the running back [Dillon Johnson] is an NFL back."
The scout compared Fautanu to 2021 first-round draft pick Rashawn Slater when he was coming out of Northwestern and predicted he could be a starting tackle in the NFL or a Pro Bowl-level guard.
"I think his initial quickness, he is an extremely good athlete," the scout said. "He's strong and smart. He plays with great balance. He's nasty and finishes. He's not a cheap shot guy, but he finishes to whistle, works well to the second level."
Digging the trenches
On the flip side of that battle is Michigan's defensive line, which is loaded with three high-end tackles. Veteran Kris Jenkins is a top-50 player in the upcoming draft and sophomores Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant are potential first-round picks next season.
"Both of them could end up there," the scout said. "Graham is the better prospect. He may be a top-15 pick."
Graham is a 6-foot-3, 318-pound menace who made arguably the biggest play in the Alabama game with a tackle for loss in overtime that set back the Tide on their final set of downs.
What stands out about Graham?
"Every platitude you can give a defensive lineman," the scout said. "He's huge. He's athletic, strong and physical and nasty. Tough against [the] run and good against the pass."
Washington's wide array of options
One veteran West Coast scout had to think long and hard to find a comparable set of wide receivers to Washington's high-end guys. There have been some years when USC had a collection of comparable talent. But make no mistake, Washington's Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja'Lynn Polk are a once-a-decade type group.
"I really can't think of a trio recently," the scout said. "USC may be the closest last year."
The three receivers have combined for 3,201 yards, which is impressive considering McMillan missed more than half the season. His return has energized Washington's offense late in the season.
"He's playing like he was expected to play before he got dinged up," the scout said. "I think he could cause some matchup problems. If you give too much attention to Odunze, he's a guy that can win in single coverage.
"If you double both those guys, Polk is the wild card. If Michigan can neutralize those guys, Polk is a vertical threat and big-body guy. Polk has had some drops, but if he's open and able to finish. I think Michigan will do everything they can to take those other guys out of the game."