SEATTLE -- The center of the NFL scouting universe will be Husky Stadium this weekend, when No. 8 Oregon visits No. 7 Washington in a game that will determine the inside track for the Pac-12's first College Football Playoff bid since 2016.
While nothing is promised, the Pac-12 currently features seven AP top 20 teams. With that has come a playoff expectation for whoever wins the league, and the Ducks and Huskies loom as the definitive favorites.
There will be 32 NFL scouts in Seattle from 20 teams, with Washington officials saying it's by far the biggest NFL contingent to scout a game there. Multiple scouts will be on hand from Cleveland, New York Giants, San Francisco, Arizona, Tampa Bay, New England, Seattle and the Washington Commanders.
The top 10 collision with the highest stakes raises two fascinating questions, which ESPN posed to 10 coaches and scouts this week.
The first is obvious: Who will win between two similarly talented teams that can be billed as pairing Washington's explosive pass game (400 yards per game) against Oregon's clinical efficiency (6.99 yards per carry)?
But the greater thought as the college football world recalibrates to the West Coast being relevant at the highest levels again: Can these teams hang with teams like Georgia, Michigan and Florida State that have established themselves as playoff favorites so far this season?
There was no conviction on a winner for this game, with many scouts and coaches defaulting to Washington because of the home-field advantage and a slight talent edge. A rainy day would seemingly favor Oregon's ground game and could erase any small edge that comes with likely having more draft eligible talent.
One NFL scout summed up Washington's ethos under Kalen DeBoer this way: "I walked away from Washington as impressed as I've been anywhere. They do a good job. Have good players. Have good kids. It's impressive. There's been places like Duke and Ohio State where you just walk away and say, 'Wow, this is a good program.'"
There's plenty of buzz about what Oregon is building under Dan Lanning as well. QB Bo Nix has transformed himself from a whirling dervish of sporadic reliability at Auburn into one of the country's most efficient and effective passers. He's just the third quarterback in the last 20 years to complete 80% of his passes through five games, joining West Virginia's Geno Smith (2012) and Baylor's Robert Griffin III (2011)
"When you look at championship teams, you look at quarterbacks first," said an opposing assistant coach. "And [Lanning] and his staff have done a really good job putting him in situations to be successful. They have good skill, and Dan has done a good job getting both the offensive and defensive line up to SEC standards."
Here are the eight biggest questions heading into one of the biggest games of the season.
Are Washington and Oregon comparable to recent national title contenders?
This is a tricky question, as there can still be a gap between, say, Georgia the past two years and teams that simply make the College Football Playoff. And any declaration of Oregon's readiness is tempered by the 49-3 thumping the Dawgs gave the Ducks in the season opener last year.
Everyone agreed on the playoff worthiness of the teams, as their NFL talent (more on that below) hits all the indicators. But past that, scouts and coaches were split on just to what level of contender Washington and Oregon can grow into.
"I would say yes," said a veteran scout. "They both have veteran quarterbacks. They both have the skill to move the ball and put up points."
Countered another veteran scout: "I don't think they are in the same talent range as Georgia yet. For Washington, they have good edge rushers but I don't know how their interior linemen would hold up when those big SEC guys get their hands on them. They aren't long and talented enough.
"Oregon has better size, but they are more inconsistent They have guys like [Jordan Burch] who are talented but inconsistent."
How do NFL scouts evaluate Washington's talent level?
Washington and Oregon each had about 15 players to write up for area scouts.
Projecting an entire draft class in October is tricky, but Washington could end up close to a double-digit draft pick class, which is typically a sign of a playoff-caliber team.
For the Huskies, Penix will get drafted, as will his top-three wide receivers -- Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja'Lynn Polk. Odunze and McMillan are likely picks this year, with Odunze a projected top 50 player and McMillan top 100. Polk is projected later, and since he's a junior he is expected to come back and prove his stock from a current projection of the fourth or fifth round.
Both of Washington's tackles will get drafted, with Troy Fautanu coveted by the NFL and redshirt sophomore right tackle Roger Rosengarten projected as an eventual pick, whether that's this year or next.
There are fringe draft guys, too, like tight end Devin Culp, who could end up as a priority free agent.
On defense, there are fewer prospects. Edge rusher Bralen Trice is a top 100 prospect who projects as an NFL starter. He's been a productive player, as he led the Huskies with nine sacks in 2022 and earned first-team All-Pac-12.
Washington's other edge rusher, Zion Tupuola-Fetui, has elite twitch and has flashed with a first-team All-Pac-12 season in 2020 with seven sacks in four games. But he tore his Achilles tendon in the spring of 2021 and has struggled with consistency and duplicating that level of production ever since. He'll be picked because he's produced at a premium position, but he needs more production.
From there, Washington has a solid late-round prospect in linebacker Edefuan Ulofoshio, who has been productive but is under-sized. Safety Dominique Hampton is a tantalizing athlete at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, and his special teams versatility will give him a look.
While there's myriad variables, a safe place to project Washington at seven to nine draft picks.
How do NFL scouts evaluate Oregon's talent level?
The Ducks may be a tick behind Washington in terms of draftable players, but that's countered a bit by an exciting crop of young talent. Sophomore left tackle Josh Conerly Jr., for example, is close to Texas' Kelvin Banks Jr. as the top tackle for the 2025 draft.
Oregon's offense should have four players drafted. It will be interesting to see if Nix or star receiver Troy Franklin ends up going higher, as both are likely top 75 picks who could end up in the late first round. One scout compared Franklin to Van Jefferson, a solid NFL receiver who was a second-round pick. "He's a good player who does everything right, he's just not super explosive," the scout said.
There's a bit of a drop from there on offense, as tailback Bucky Irving is a solid prospect whose size -- listed at 5-foot-10 and 195 pounds -- will likely keep him from going in the first three rounds. Both Irving and junior tight end Terrance Ferguson, who is 6-foot-5 and 255 pounds, will have decisions to make.
There's no sure-fire picks for this year on Oregon's offensive line, although the unit projects well for 2024 with Conerly as an anchor. Junior center Jackson Powers-Johnson has a high ceiling there and brings guard versatility, but he's not expected to come out. Right tackle Ajani Cornelius, a transfer from Rhode Island, is a great athlete and could get picked this year. But he has a much higher ceiling if he returns and gets stronger, which he's expected to do.
Oregon's defense has three likely picks. Senior defensive end Brandon Dorlus has been productive, as he had 9.5 TFLs last year and had his fingerprints all over Oregon's win at Texas Tech. (That included hitting quarterback Tyler Shough as he threw, leading to the game-sealing pick-six by Jeffrey Bassa.) Dorlus is more of a mid-round projection.
The Ducks' best athlete on defense is South Carolina transfer Jordan Burch. Burch is 6-foot-6 and 290 pounds, which will help him get drafted simply off the height/weight/speed metrics that take over drafting principles in later rounds. Scouts want to see more consistency so that his play begins to match his physical tools.
Oregon's secondary has one solid prospect in Alabama transfer Khyree Jackson, who is 6-foot-3 and put on a dominant performance against Colorado with four tackles and three pass break-ups. He started just one game at Alabama last year, so there needs to be more time to get a real feel for his draft range. But he's earned consideration.
There are a few juniors on defense expected to return and be under consideration next year. That leaves Oregon with somewhere around seven to nine projected players this year, depending on declarations.
Who is the top NFL prospect in the game?
The best NFL prospect in the game is Fautanu, the Huskies' left tackle who is expected to be a top 20 NFL pick. Some scouts see him as a tackle, others see a player who could slide inside -- one scout compared to him to Northwestern's Peter Skoronski, who slid inside for the NFL -- and be a dominant guard.
"He's freaky-looking on the hoof," one scout said. "He's 320 but looks 275 and has 35-inch arms. He's very light on his feet, rarely stressed. He has high makeup. If he was 6-5, he'd be up there with [top Penn State tackle] Olu Fashanu."
Another scout echoed that, saying that Fautanu would have been a high selection if he'd left Washington after last season.
"He's built really well," the scout said. "He's low body fat. Really good athlete, powerful and strong. He's got everything. If he would have could have come out last year, he'd have probably been a top-50 pick."
What does the NFL make of Bo Nix?
Nix and Penix are two very different quarterbacks. The safe projection for each now is that they will go in the second round, with some first-round upside.
One veteran NFL scout stacked them this way: "I think they are actually in the same class. I think they are in the same class right now. [Nix] has a lot of bad public perception because of how it went at Auburn. If you actually just watch this year so far, he's playing really well. This quarterback thing can be a little fuzzy. Kenny Pickett went 21 or 22. [Nix and Penix] are in that world. They could go there if the right team fell in love with them."
The best comp a scout gave on Nix was a "better Desmond Ridder," which is based on running ability, high character and talent level. Ridder went in the third round, and Nix safely projects mid-second at this point.
"He's more an athlete and intangibles than an elite passer," a scout said. "The quarterback makeup is elite as far as maturity. He's highly, highly competitive, smart and very, very tough. Like very tough. He's a really good athlete and his arm strength is good, but not elite.
"He's not a super gifted passer. He's not a super loose arm with angles. But he can make every throw."
What does the NFL make of Michael Penix Jr.?
Heading into the season, a gap existed between Penix the player and Penix the prospect. He's 23, has had two torn ACLs and a shoulder joint sprain injury. Any conversation about Penix was framed around age and injury.
Well, asserting himself as a Heisman Trophy favorite and leading the nation in passing yards has reframed that. Penix remains unique in other ways -- he has 11-inch hands, which would give him the biggest hands among NFL starters. He's left-handed, like Tua Tagovailoa, who in 2020 ended a 10-year drought of lefty quarterbacks drafted. His delivery is a bit unconventional, too, as it can come at a lower release but zips out of his hand.
"I like him better than Bo," said a veteran scout. "I think at worst, Penix is a backup in the NFL. I like his arm strength and deep ball accuracy, the ability to push down the field. Some quarterbacks complete a high percentage, and they are throwing bubbles and wide receiver screens. He's really pushing the ball down the field.
"He does have a funky motion and I feel like he can make bad decisions on off-schedule plays, when he's not passing in rhythm. That holds me back from saying he's a sure-fire starter in the NFL. He's at least a No. 2, a guy who'll be picked in the second or third round, and he's going to determine whether he becomes a 1."
Penix is in the top five nationally with 1,999 passing yards, 16 touchdown passes and a 196.5 passing efficiency.
"They do such a good job, scheming their guys open with speed," a scout said. "It's a pretty simplified system. You don't often see him scan the whole field and work through progressions. He's well protected and the offense puts the safeties in a bind and they get a lot of wide-open downfield catches. They practically don't run the ball, so it's all big plays. That's why the numbers are video games with all the skill guys."
What are the match-up issues?
The position groups for both Washington and Oregon that's lightest in talent is the secondary.
Washington's reputation as DBU has taken a step back, after a near-decade-long run of elite prospects from Marcus Peters to Trent McDuffie and Taylor Rapp to Kyler Gordon. Dominique Hampton is a potential late-round pick, but there's few others outside transfer Jabbar Muhammad, an Oklahoma State transfer who could return next year, that are factors in scouts' conversations.
"The secondary is what I'd worry about for Washington," said a scout. "Cal was throwing on them and moving the ball. They don't have those defensive backs like back in the day, when they'd have two high picks and another late. It's not like that. They have young defensive backs they are fired up about. But they are two or three years down the pipeline."
Oregon's secondary has one prospect in Khyree Jackson but is generally considered a potential liability against an aggressive and effective pass attack like Washington's. One assistant who faced Oregon this year pointed out that both Portland State and Texas Tech picked on Oregon's nickel, Colorado transfer Nikko Reed.
"We thought the secondary was the weakness of the team," said the opposing assistant. "I think overall, we felt like that was an area we could attack them."
Where are other potential soft spots?
For Washington, the area where it is going to be most vulnerable is up the middle on offense. It has two strong tackles and an interior offensive line that's green, including redshirt freshman center Parker Brailsford.
"I think Oregon will try and get pressure up the middle and try and get Penix off his spot," said an assistant who played UW earlier in the year. "I'd bet they are going to try and get pressure in his face and beat him through interior pressure."
That could end up sounding better in the staff room than between the hashes, as Washington has only allowed three sacks this year. (Oregon has also only allowed three, after allowing the fewest sacks in the country last year with five.) Oregon's defensive tackles are beefy space eaters who can stuff the run. Will they be able to collapse the pocket?
For Oregon's offensive line, they have a precocious talent in Ajani Cornelius at right tackle, as he was one of the most coveted players in the portal coming from Rhode Island. Cornelius has the traits that intrigued the NFL -- bend, footwork and athleticism. It wouldn't be a surprise to a few observers if a crafty veteran like Bralen Trice can push him around.
"Some of those guys like him that are flexible and can move and have good feet and everything, creating power isn't so much a strength," said an opposing coach of Cornelius. "That may come, too."
Added a scout: "Trice plays his tail off. He's not loose, like a bender. That guy runs through you instead of bending around you. That match-up on the tackle will favor Trice. He'll run right through that guy."